AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 755 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS ALONG WITH A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA...WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS LATER TODAY COULD BECOME SEVERE OVER INLAND SOUTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO LATE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 745 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN THE CAROLINA COAST WITH AN E-NE FLOW SHIFTING AROUND TO E-SE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED DOWN INTO NORTH CAROLINA WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S REACHING DOWN INTO NORTHERN TIER OF CWA. STILL LEFT WITH A FAIRLY JUICY ATMOSPHERE TOWARD SOUTHERN TIER OF FORECAST AREA IN SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE REACHING INTO THE 60S. LOOKS LIKE MAIN ACCESS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RUN THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL SC REMAINING WEST OF OUR CWA. SOME PERTURBATIONS IN MID TO UPPER FLOW MAY TRIGGER SOME STORMS OVER INTERIOR MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL THEN GET STEERED SOUTHWARD BUT SHOULD MAINLY MISS THE ILM SC ZONES THIS EVENING. OVERALL...HAVE LOWERED POPS. STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MOVING FROM NW TO SE. DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DRY OUT THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP TEMPORARILY THIS EVENING BUT ANOTHER PERTURBATION IN THE MID FLOW MAY PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. TEMPS MAY BE A BIT TRICKY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS NOSING IN DOWN THE NC COAST AND POSSIBILITY CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 50S...NE PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA...TO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE FEATURE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO SET UP BY FRIDAY. PRESENTLY...WE ARE CARRYING A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MID SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY GETS A LITTLE CLOSER FRIDAY...THERE IS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...GOING FROM 75 TO AROUND 80 THURSDAY TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...STILL A LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AS SURFACE AND UPPER TROFINESS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED. STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE ORIENTED NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AND THE TIMING OF ANY UPPER IMPULSES ALOFT WILL DETERMINE WHEN OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR. KNOWING THAT WE CANNOT NAIL DOWN SAID TIMING THIS FAR OUT...WILL BLANKET THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH CHANCE POPS. CLOUD COVER AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP RANGES...SO TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY DAY...AND JUST ABOVE BY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF POSSIBLE MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY EAST SHIFTING MORE SE THURSDAY AFTN UP TO 8-10KTS POSSIBLE. ATTM...HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE FOG AT ANY TERMINALS IN FORECAST DUE TO FORECASTED CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS SHRA ACTIVITY AND LIGHT WINDS...IF CLOUDS HAPPEN TO CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP. WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 745 PM WEDNESDAY...EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KT WILL KEEP SEAS UP TO 3 TO 4 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...OTHERWISE 2 TO AROUND 3 FT WILL RULE THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL RUN 10 TO 15 KT OR AROUND 10 KT WHERE THE SFC PG NOT AS TIGHTENED. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTING TO THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NE TO E THROUGH SE TO S. SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 4 FT OR LESS. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS BUT FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN EVERYTHING ELSE. WILL INITIALIZE WITH A SE WIND ON SATURDAY...BUT COMING AROUND TO DUE SOUTH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINING OUT OF THE S-SSW FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ANY WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL AFFECT THE DIRECTION...AND WIND SPEEDS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSE THE FRONT IS TO THE COAST. AT THIS POINT 15-20 KT APPEARS TO BE THE UPPER LIMIT. SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...GENERALLY 3-4 FT BUT COULD TOUCH 5 FT AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$