AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 305 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HURRICANE IRENE WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND A LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3:00 AM FRIDAY...NEAR TERM FORECAST BASED ENTIRELY UPON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE IRENE. FOR QPF HAVE RELIED HEAVILY UPON HPC QPF FORECASTS. PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IRENE BASED ON GFS40 AS MODIFIED BY THE OFFICIAL TRACK. OFFICIAL TRACK HAS IRENE MOVING NORTH FROM THE BAHAMAS TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COASTLINE...WITH IRENE POSITIONED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR BY AROUND DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY MORNING. SEE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR MOST UPDATED POSITIONS OF IRENE. PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IRENE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERNIGHT...HEAVY AT TIMES...AS IRENE MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS TO WIDESPREAD RAIN ARE OUR FAR WESTERN INLAND COUNTIES...WHICH MAY SEE ONLY MODEST QPF VALUES. COASTAL COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION...COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH TROPICAL STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE FOR OUR COASTAL COUNTIES PLUS BLADEN AND COLUMBUS COUNTIES. SEE LATEST WARNINGS FOR UPDATED INFORMATION. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3:00 AM FRIDAY...PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HURRICANE IRENE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR AND MOVING TO THE NNE. GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE FELT IN THE COUNTIES SURROUNDING THE CAPE FEAR REGION...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND TROPICAL STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AFFECTING THE AREA. SEE LATEST FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES FOR UPDATED INFO ON THIS RAPIDLY EVOLVING EVENT. CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH STILL POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS...WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY AROUND NOON ON SATURDAY AS THE HURRICANE EXITS TO THE NNE. CURRENT FORECAST CLEARS FORECAST AREA OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM HAZARDS SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION BY EVENTS END. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS IRENE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR BEHIND THE STORM WILL MAKE FOR A HOT DAY...WITH LOWER/MID 90S EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH TAKES OVER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH POPS LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND TEMPS NEAR CLIMO. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT DUE TO POTENTIAL FOG/STRATUS INLAND AND SHOWERS AT THE COAST. CONCERN ON FRIDAY REVOLVES AROUND APPROACH OF HURRICANE IRENE. LTX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS OFFSHORE CONTINUOUSLY TRYING TO ADVECT INLAND ON EASTERLY FLOW. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING AS THEY HEAD EAST...BUT BELIEVE AS PROFILES SATURATE FURTHER ILM/CRE/MYR WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS SO HAVE CARRIED VCSH THERE. CONCERN INLAND IS FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL. LTX VWP HAS 20 KTS AT 2 KFT WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT FOG...BUT HYDRO LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW LEVELS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME FOG TONIGHT. COMBINING THESE TWO FACTORS MAY CREATE A FOG AND STRATUS EVENT INLAND. HOWEVER...THERE WAS SOME CONCERN OF THIS LAST NIGHT WHICH DID NOT MATERIALIZE...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HAVE CARRIED SCT MVFR LEVEL STRATUS WITH TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT FLO/LBT. WILL AMID IF NECESSARY. ALL ATTENTION TURNS TO IRENE AND HER POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTN. ATTM IT IS TOO EARLY TO FOCUS ON SPECIFICS OTHER THAN TO MENTION THAT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE CONDITIONS WORSE THAN LBT/FLO. SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40 KTS FROM THE E/NE WILL DEVELOP AT THE COAST COMBINED WITH RAIN AND IFR CIGS. WINDS INLAND WILL GET CLOSE TO 30 KTS WITH LIGHTER RAIN AND POTENTIAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS. TAFS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY DURING THE EVENT...BUT VERY SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN...IFR...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY. VFR WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3:00 AM FRIDAY...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FORECAST AS HURRICANE IRENE MOVES JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NEAR TERM. EXPECT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 20 FT DURING THIS PERIOD. MOST DANGEROUS CONDITIONS EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION IN THE VICINITY OF FRYING PAN SHOALS. SEE LATEST WARNINGS AND FORECASTS FOR UPDATED INFORMATION ON WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3:00 AM THURSDAY...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS HURRICANE IRENE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. PERIOD STARTS WITH IRENE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR AND MOVING TO THE NNE. TROPICAL STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL WATERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH STILL DANGEROUS...CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE BY AROUND NOON AS IRENE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MAINTAINS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF IRENE. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A VEERING TO A MORE EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION. SEABREEZE EACH DAY...STRONGER MON...WILL RESULT IN TYPICAL ONSHORE AFTERNOON FLOW. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SCZ053>056. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ053>056. NC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NCZ096-099. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ096-099-105>110. HURRICANE WARNING FOR NCZ105>110. MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AMZ254-256. HURRICANE WARNING FOR AMZ250-252. && $$