AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 741 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...THERE`S AN UNSEASONABLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS EVENING BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER INTERIOR NC AND VIRGINIA. A LOW LEVEL JET WITH 1000 FT WIND SPEEDS AROUND 25 KT AND 2500 FT WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS OFFSHORE WILL DEVELOP...HELPING KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL-MIXED THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT BREEZES ALONG THE COAST WITH LOW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOW IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL MARINE CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD BE ALONG THE CAPE FEAR COAST WHERE STORMS DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE CHARLESTON/GEORGETOWN/MYRTLE BEACH COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND ONSHORE. WE HAVE POPS AS HIGH AS 60% AT THE BEACHES. IT IS UNCLEAR IF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION CURRENTLY ON THE RADAR ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA WILL BE ABLE TO SURVIVE THE TRIP INTO EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE THE AIRMASS WAS WORKED OVER TODAY AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS MUCH LOWER. ALTHOUGH MODELS DO NOT EXPLICITLY PAINT QPF ACROSS THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT...GIVEN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS AND RATHER LARGE AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WE WILL MAINTAIN A 20 TO 30 POP IN OUR FORECAST EVEN ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION INTO LUMBERTON AND ELIZABETHTOWN. ANY STORM (GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND DEEP WARM-CLOUD DEPTHS) WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 70S INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. AS WE SAW LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING... TEMPERATURES COULD TEMPORARILY FALL A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW THESE FORECAST NUMBERS INSIDE HEAVY RAIN CORES SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SATURDAY...A WET PATTERN WILL SET UP AS A WEAK SFC LOW SHIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND BECOMES ENHANCED WITHIN A LEE TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WHILE THE MID/UPPER LVL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO STEER SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LEAD TO SOME CLOUD COVER SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AS SUFFICIENT SFC HEATING LEADS TO SBCAPES NEAR 2500 J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS AN H5 SHORTWAVE SLOWLY SHIFTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND THEN THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED ALONG A REMNANT EAST/WEST SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA. GIVEN A WEAK WIND PATTERN...WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES...PULSE TYPE CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL DURING STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 90 WITH CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NC/SC COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID 70S ALONG THE NC/SC COAST. SUNDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE AN H5 SHORTWAVE DRIFTS OFFSHORE WHILE AMPLE MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE REMNANT EAST/WEST BOUNDARY. HAVE MAINTAINED 40 POPS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE PRECIP CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE REMNANT BOUNDARY...BUT THE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LESS THAN SATURDAY. ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN BE PULSE TYPE IN NATURE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN THREATS SHOULD A STRONGER STORM DEVELOP. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE NC/SC COAST. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT LATE SUNDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE MID LVL RIDGING EXPANDS OVER THE ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE WEST. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER SC COUNTIES WHERE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP OVER THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND DRIFT OFFSHORE. OVERALL LOW TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 70S WITH MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NC/SC COAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... EXTENDED FORECAST WARRANTS FEW CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON AS WHAT ELSE...A MASSIVE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE. HPC IS LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH THEIR NUMBERS AND WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THIS FORECAST. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY AND WARM WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF DAYS WITH MIDDLE 90S ALMOST EVERYWHERE SANS THE BEACHES. RIDGE MAY BREAK DOWN JUST ENOUGH LATER IN THE PERIOD TO ALLOW POPS TO INCREASE AS A FRONT SLIPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY AS WELL WITH THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DUE TO POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. ACTIVITY IS STARTING TO TAPER OFF...BUT HAVE CHOSE TO KEPT VCSH IN FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS SHOWERS OFFSHORE MAY MOVE INLAND. GIVEN AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS...POSSIBLY IFR CIGS...TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO CIGS INLAND WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER AND WILL REFINE AT NEXT ISSUANCE. PATCHY FOG IS NOT LIKELY GIVEN STRONG NOCTURNAL LLJ...BUT SEEING DECENT RAINFALL PROVIDED THIS EVENING AND LIGHTER WINDS INLAND...MVFR IS POSSIBLE. AT THE COAST...WINDS SHOULD STAY ELEVATED AND SHOULD NOT HAVE AN ISSUE WITH FOG. AFTER SUNRISE...RESTRICTIONS SHOULD START TO LIFT AND RETURN TO VFR BY 14Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AS AMPLE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING DECENT INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE PERIODS OF REDUCED VSBYS AT TIMES. INCLUDING VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS AND WILL DETAIL IN THE TAF WHEN CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ON LOCATIONS AND TIMING. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS...GENERALLY STRONGER AT THE COAST. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...A TIGHT GRADIENT ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH IS PRODUCING SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS COULD CLIMB TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS THE CORE OF A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET CRAWLS NORTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. WITH WATER AND AIR TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY WARM THERE IS PLENTY OF HEAT AND MIXING POTENTIAL WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX MOMENTUM DOWN FROM ALOFT THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 5 FT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...AND 4 FT AT THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY. LOOKING FARTHER OFFSHORE THE CORMP BUOY ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE IS ALREADY REPORTING 6 FT SEAS. 5-6 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITHIN 20 MILES OF SHORE OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS...WITH GENERALLY 4-5 FT ACROSS THE SC WATERS. ALREADY THERE IS A LULL IN SHOWER/T-STORM ACTIVITY...WE EXPECT TO SEE A BLOSSOMING OF CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FORECASTED STORM TRAJECTORIES ARE FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL MEANDER NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND DRIFT OFFSHORE. SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FEET WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FEET SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE WEEKEND WITH THE REMNANT BOUNDARY DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE JUST OFF THE COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN EASTERLY FLOW MOST OF MONDAY. A MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN TYPICAL OF SUMMER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH AROUND 10 KNOTS. WAVEWATCH SEAS OF 2-3 FEET LOOK GOOD AS WELL. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ254-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...99