AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 342 PM EST FRI MAR 12 2010 ...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE HAIL THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... TONIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF CLOSES OFF OVER THE SERN U.S. AND WILL SEND A STRONG SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LINGERING RAIN SHIELD OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA JUST ABOUT READY TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND END PCPN ACRS NERN FL WITH ONLY ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 50 TOWARDS MORNING. SATURDAY...CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PINWHEELS JUST NORTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA AND VERY STRONG WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE AND EXPECT EASY LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE FULL BLOWN WIND ADVISORY WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH MIXING CAN OCCUR. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. STRONG VORT MAX SWINGING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF UPPER LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ISOLD SHOWERS ACRS SERN GA. SAT NIGHT...VORT MAX ON SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER ISOLD SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY CONDS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 40S EARLY SUN MORNING. SUNDAY...ANOTHER BREEZY/WINDY DAY AS WEST WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND 70 ONCE AGAIN. SUN NIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO PULL AWAY INTO THE WRN ATLC WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH AND LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 40S. MONDAY...NOT AS BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. MAX TEMPS PUSHING CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NW WILL DROP SE BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER TROF ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT THE MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S RANGING FROM UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 40S INLAND WITH A DECREASING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY BEGINNING TO WARM UP SOME FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE A WARMING TREND FOR THE MAX TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IN THE WORKS FOR FRIDAY. KEPT SILENT 10% POPS LOW THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO DRIER AIR ALOFT...THOUGH SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THU AM. && .AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY LIFTING AS THE WIDESPREAD AREA OF PCP PUSHES SE OUT OF THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING MVFR FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...MAY HAVE BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR. A COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THIS EVE WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AGAIN BY 00Z ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS. CLEARING SKIES FORECAST LATER TONIGHT AFTER FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. && .MARINE...OBS AS OF 20Z SHOWING SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AT THE ST AUGUSTINE BUOY AS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES OFFSHORE. THESE WINDS LIKELY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED AND EXPECT A DECREASE IN THE WIND BACK TO DOWN EXERCISE CAUTION AFTER THE SHOWERS PUSH TO THE SE. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FORECAST TO DEEPEN TONIGHT INTO A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTH. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS SHARPLY INCREASING BY LATER TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS DELAY THE ONSET OF SCA CONDITIONS FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST AND NOW HAVE ADVISORY CONDITIONS STARTING LATER TONIGHT OFFSHORE AND BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OFFSHORE. MAY HAVE POSSIBLY HAVE GALE FORCE GUSTS OUTER WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT DUE TO LIMITED DURATION WILL HOLD BACK ON GALE WATCH FOR NOW. WINDS DECREASE SOME SUNDAY...BUT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...A DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RED FLAG EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGH DISPERSION INDICES THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO LESS THAN 15 MPH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 48 65 41 65 / 60 20 20 0 SSI 53 65 46 63 / 40 10 20 0 JAX 52 69 45 68 / 30 0 10 0 SGJ 53 70 47 68 / 20 0 10 0 GNV 50 69 42 70 / 20 0 10 0 OCF 52 71 45 71 / 20 0 10 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EST SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM EST SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM- FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM. && $$ HESS/PETERSON/PRESNALL/WALKER