AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
815 PM EST SAT FEB 4 2012

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FCST FOR TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT/WIND TRENDS...AND TO
INCREASE SKY COVER SOME OVERNIGHT AS LOW STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP. A SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE BY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN REACHES OF NE FL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF SE
GA...BUT WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...WILL KEEP POPS
UNDER 15 PERCENT UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MORE OF A
LOW CEILING EVENT RATHER THAN FOG. WILL PLAY IT IN THE MIDDLE AND GO
WITH IFR AT GNV AND VQQ...AND MVFR ELSEWHERE. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR CEILINGS AT GNV AND VQQ BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE 0Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED SCA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTER WATERS WITH WINDS
15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS DOWN TO AROUND 5 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SCTD SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOUTH OF THE WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MID
WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TONIGHT...BECOMING LOW SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  54  77  50  67 /  10  40  40  10
SSI  59  72  54  66 /  10  40  30  10
JAX  56  76  54  72 /  10  40  40  20
SGJ  61  74  57  71 /  10  50  40  20
GNV  56  78  55  74 /  10  50  40  20
OCF  57  80  58  76 /  10  50  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$