AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1000 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011

...NEAR RECORD HEAT IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...

.SHORT TERM...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE JUST N OF THE AREA
CONTINUES. MID AND UPPER LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED A BIT...BRINGING
PRECIP H2O VALUES BACK TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES. SOUNDING HAS BECOME A
BIT MORE UNSTABLE WITH TEMPS BETWEEN 500MB AND 650MB FALLING 1 TO 2
DEGREES AND TEMPS BELOW 850MB RISING 1 TO 2 DEGREES. AS A RESULT...
MODIFIED CAPES ARE OVER 3000 J/KG. 500MB TEMPS REMAIN VERY WARM AT
-4C. OTHER THAN SEABREEZES AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...MINIMAL
FORCING EVIDENT ACROSS NE FL...BUT MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SW
WINDS AHEAD OF SFC TROF WILL ADD MORE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS
EXTREME SE GA. MID-LEVEL N-NE FLOW MUCH WEAKER THAN ON FRI AND
WEAKER THAN BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE FOR TODAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
SLOWER AND MORE ERRATIC STORM MOTION...ALTHO A GENERAL MOTION TO THE
S TO SW IS STILL EXPECTED.

AGAIN...THE BIG STORY TODAY WITH BE MAX TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES.
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AND MINIMAL CHANGES ARE EXPECTED.
THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD MAX TEMPS FOR 7/30...

JAX... 102 IN 2010
GNV... 100 IN 1896
AMG... 101 IN 1961
SSI...  99 IN 2010

&&

.AVIATION...VFR OUTSIDE OF TSTMS. WILL BE ADDING VCTS OR TEMPO TSTMS
TO MOST SITES ON 18Z UPDATE.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE. WILL INDICATE
TREND IN WIND DIRECTION FROM SW SHIFTING TO SE.

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM THIS EVENING
     FOR BAKER-COLUMBIA-HAMILTON-NASSAU-SUWANNEE.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM THIS EVENING
     FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COFFEE-
     ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-
     WAYNE.

AM...NONE.

&&

$$