AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 517 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011 ...NEAR RECORD HEAT IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY... ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA... .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY THE HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES NOT AS HOT MONDAY DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIP. MEAN STEERING FLOW TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST. WEAK FLOW WILL EXIST AT THE SURFACE...AROUND A BROAD TROUGH NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THESE TWO FEATURES COMBINED SHOULD KEEP THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST TODAY...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE. INCREASED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND RISING 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR MAX TEMPS AROUND 100 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 110 DEGREES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHERN FLORIDA WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. THESE AREAS WILL NEAR RECORD LEVELS. THE RECORD FOR THIS DATE AT AMG IS 101 SET IN 1961. THE BEACHES WILL MAX OUT IN THE LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDICES OVER 100. OVERALL FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA ON SUNDAY. WEAK EASTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE TO PUSH FARTHER INLAND WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES (AROUND 90) AND MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER INLAND AREAS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA NEARER TO AFOREMENTIONED WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED A SEE TEXT AREA JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH VERY HOT LEVELS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD NEAR AND EAST OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES ON MONDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BOTH BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN A HIGHLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ENHANCED SUPPORT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER TROUGH. LACK OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL BRING A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL POPS. SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. && .AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL. SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT VQQ WILL KEEP MVFR VSBY UNTIL 11Z. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH ROUGHLY FROM JESUP GA TO GNV. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EARLY SHRA DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE WILL ADD CB TO AFTN SEGMENTS...THEN WAIT TO MID DAY TO DISCERN WHEN/WHERE TEMPO FOR TSRA MAY BE NEEDED. && .MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEKEND. NOCTURNAL SURGES ARE EXPECTED NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 KT DUE TO A SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER SRN GA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH MID WEEK. RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 100 75 98 75 / 30 30 50 40 SSI 97 78 90 78 / 20 10 30 20 JAX 98 75 96 76 / 30 20 40 30 SGJ 93 75 89 76 / 20 10 30 20 GNV 97 74 97 74 / 30 30 50 40 OCF 95 74 94 74 / 30 30 40 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BAKER-COLUMBIA-HAMILTON-NASSAU-SUWANNEE. GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COFFEE- ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE- WAYNE. AM...NONE. && $$