AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
235 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011

...HOT ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH RELATIVELY
DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE N 1/4 OF THE AREA WITH SMALL SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME SE
GA...THEN A MOSTLY BENIGN CU FIELD ACROSS NE FL. SEABREEZES HAVE
MOVED INLAND ABOUT 5 TO 10 MI ALONG THE NE FL ATLANTIC AND GULF
COASTS. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 90S
INLAND...WHILE MID 80S ARE FOUND ALONG THE COAST.

.SHORT TERM...EXPECT SEABREEZES AND OUTFLOWS TO PRODUCE A BIT MORE
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE ISOLD TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS WILL BE THE
RULE WITH ACTIVITY DYING DOWN FAIRLY EARLY IN THE EVENING.

EXPECTED A BIT MORE POPS ON SAT...BUT ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE
LIMITED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE. 500MB HIGH WILL BE NEAR
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THE HIGH SHOULD SHIFT NW THRU
THE DAY AS ATLC SEABOARD TROF BEGINS TO DIG. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD
BE THE HOTTEST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
INLAND SE GA LIKELY REACHING THE CENTURY MARK. HEAT INDICES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 110 OVER INLAND LOCALES...AND A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.

ON SUN...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AND ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 40 PERCENT POPS...BUT AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL TROF MAY PROVIDE ENUF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
BUMP THEM UP A NOTCH LATER...ESP ACROSS SE GA. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
HOT ONCE AGAIN...BUT LIKELY AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF OF
SAT HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...POPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF FRONTAL TROF
EARLY IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY DECREASING POPS AS ATLC TROF
CONTINUES TO DIG. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THRU
THE PERIOD. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO EXISTING
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...A CLUSTER OF PIN-PRICK SHRA HAVE DEVELOP IN ENHANCED CU
FIELD WHERE A LINGERING LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT FROM SSI
SOUTHWEST TOWARD NW OF JAX. INCLUDED TEMPO SHRA AT SSI...AND AM
STILL THINKING THAT THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL REACH JAX BEFORE
PRECIP DOES. WILL MONITOR VQQ AND GNV FOR POSSIBLE TEMPO GROUPS DUE
TO PRECIP THROUGH SUNSET. TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE AT CRG...VQQ AND GNV.

&&

.MARINE...SLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KTS
AND AND SEAS 2-4 FT. AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO SUSTAINED NEAR 15 KTS
AND GUSTY IS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTHERN GA. WINDS WILL BECOME SSW TUE-WED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  99  75  98 /  10  30  20  40
SSI  77  95  78  93 /  10  20  10  20
JAX  74  98  76  95 /  10  30  10  30
SGJ  75  93  76  92 /  10  20  10  20
GNV  73  97  74  94 /  20  30  20  40
OCF  73  96  74  94 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$