AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1020 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
80S ALONG THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE
DETECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MIGRATING
WEST SOUTHWEST NEAR 20 KNOTS ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS SOUTH OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE
UPPER KEYS AND THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. SURFACE
WISE...A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AVERAGING 1018 MB LIES ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF COAST REGION...WITH TYPICAL LOWER PRESSURE
IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT...C-MAN
STATION PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE EAST WINDS OF 13 TO 17  KNOTS
WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...OUR EVENING SOUNDING
REVEALS A TAD BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE (PWAT 1.72 INCHES) WITH MOST
LIQUID BELOW 800 MB ALONG WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. A DEEP...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW FLOW
REACHES WELL INTO THE TROPOSPHERE.

.SHORT TERM...
DESPITE CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ABOVE 800 MB...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WITHIN A FRESH TO STRONG LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE GOOD MOISTURE FLUX RESULTING IN SCATTERED 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ACROSS OUR REGION. AWAY FROM A SPELL OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. SINCE THE CURRENT
FORECAST HANDLES THE SITUATION PRETTY WELL...NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...
OUR EVENING SOUNDING INDICATED EAST WINDS OF 14 AND 18 KNOTS AT 1
AND 2 THOUSAND FEET RESPECTIVELY WHICH MATCHES THE KBYX VWP.
ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LYING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND
THE GULF COAST REGION HAS WEAKENED 2 TO 3 MB OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PERSIST ON ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS WITH WINDS DECREASING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ON THE
WATERS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD NEAR 20 KNOTS. SHORT LIVED
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND/OR VIS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SHOWERS AT THE
TERMINALS. AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE AS NECESSARY. EAST WINDS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR 20 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$