AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1038 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
WITH DEEP RIDGING NORTH OF THE KEYS. THE KEY WEST MORNING RAWINSONDE
OBSERVATION REVEALS A MOIST...MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WEAKLY CAPPED...
AND WEAKLY SHEARED ATMOSPHERE...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. RECENT DOPPLER
RADAR SCANS SHOW ISOLATED QUICK-MOVING SHOWERS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA AT 15-20 MPH.

CURRENT FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK WITH NO MORNING UPDATES EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS WINDS AVERAGE 15-20 KNOTS.
BREEZES MAY LULL THIS AFTERNOON CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS IN SOME LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...AFTER DARK BREEZES WILL SURGE AGAIN...REACHING NEAR 20
KNOTS IN PLACES. WELL-DEVELOPED SEAS OF 4-6 FEET ARE LIKELY FROM THE
REEF SEAWARD...WITH A 2-3 FEET AVERAGE IN HAWK CHANNEL AND IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO INSIDE FIVE FATHOMS. BEYOND FIVE FATHOMS...SEAS WILL
BUILD QUICKLY TO 3-5 FEET. BAY AND NEARSHORE CONDITIONS WILL BE
CHOPPY. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM.
&&

.AVIATION...
AN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL HELP MAINTAIN FRESH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT SINCE
APRIL 1ST HAS BEEN 82.8 DEGREES. THIS IS THE THIRD WARMEST MEAN
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST HISTORY FOR THE PERIOD FROM APRIL 1ST
THROUGH JULY 28TH. THE WARMEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DURING THIS
119-DAY STRETCH AT KEY WEST OF 83.1 DEGREES OCCURRED IN 1967.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1873.

THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORT SINCE
APRIL 1ST HAS BEEN 84.0 DEGREES. THIS IS THE WARMEST MEAN
TEMPERATURE ON RECORD SINCE RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE MIDDLE
KEYS FOR THE PERIOD FROM APRIL 1ST THROUGH JULY 28TH. THE PRIOR
WARMEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DURING THIS 119-DAY STRETCH AT MARATHON
OF 83.2 DEGREES OCCURRED IN 2008. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE MIDDLE
KEYS ONLY DATE BACK TO 1982. &&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$