AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1117 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2012 .DISCUSSION... 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. DML && .AVIATION... IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AT LFT/ARA WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ABOVE 3000FT (VFR) BY 09Z. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINATELY ABOVE 3000FT VFR FOR BPT/LCH OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING. PLACED A PROB30 GROUP (FOR -RA) DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN AREA OF PRECIP FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD. DML && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2012/ UPDATE... COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING... AND COOLER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE IN BEHIND IT. A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT HOWEVER...AND THEREFORE CLOUD COVER WILL HANG IN. ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...THAT IS HELPING KICK OFF SOME CONVECTION DOWN THE TEXAS COAST...WILL MOVE ACROSS LATER TONIGHT AND HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. STILL ONLY EXPECTING MAINLY LIGHT...TO ISOLATED MODERATE...RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...RUNOFF IN SOME AREAS FROM EARLIER HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES. SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNING/STATEMENT AND AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR DETAILS. AS THE COOLER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...EXPECT NORTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS BY MIDNIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...AND THEN PROGRESS TO THE EAST OVER THE LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT WERE ISSUED EARLIER WILL BE CONTINUED. RUA PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2012/ DISCUSSION... 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. AVIATION... AREA OF RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY ACROSS SE TX/S LA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING TO BE DISSIPATED BY THIS EVENING. AT AEX...MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY 03-04Z. IFR CEILINGS AT LCH/BPT WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO VFR BY 03-04Z AS WELL. FOR ARA/LFT...CEILINGS HAVE STAYED UP THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE -RA DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE...NOT EXPECTING PREDOMINATE CEILING RESTRICTIONS THIS EVENING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUN...EXPECTING ONLY MID LEVEL CEILINGS (ABOVE VFR) AS THE LOWER LAYERS FINALLY DRY OUT WITH THE COOLER AIR ADVECTING FROM THE NW. FOR SUN...PLACED A PROB30 GROUP (FOR -RA) DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN AREA OF PRECIP FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD. DML PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2012/ UPDATE... HAVE ALLOWED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM LOCAL. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE RAINFALL WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING FROM THE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES FROM RUNOFF FROM THE EARLIER RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE AND WILL BE HANDLED WITH THE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS/STATEMENTS AND THE LOCAL AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS/STATEMENTS. RUA PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2012/ DISCUSSION... REGIONAL 88DS CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING MID/UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE CROSSING THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AREA...WHILE OVER THE NRN ZONES RAINS ARE LIGHT AND MORE PATCHY IN NATURE. ADDITIONAL QPFS WITH THE NRN ACTIVITY LOOK LIGHT ENOUGH...GENERALLY <1/4 INCH AND LIKELY BELOW 1/10 INCH... THAT ADDITIONAL FLOODING OR THE AGGRAVATION OF ONGOING FLOODING LOOKS UNLIKELY AND THUS HAVE CANCELED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS. SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NERN LA ACROSS TOLEDO BEND TO THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CREEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXITING THE SERN ZONES AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. THE NEXT IMPULSE IN THE SRN STREAM ALOFT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE NWRN GULF ON SUNDAY WHILE THE FRONT SITS BEYOND OUR OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME ELEVATED THUNDER WITH HIGHEST POPS CLOSER TO THE COAST IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO THE IMPULSE/FRONT. ALL ZONES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY TOMORROW EVENING AS LOW LEVELS BEGIN DRYING OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. LONGER RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER...ALTHOUGH NOT TOTAL... AGREEMENT ON THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GULF FROM MEXICO BY MID-WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD WHICH WILL BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SRN 1/2...BY LATE WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER IMPULSE FOLLOWS THIS STRONGER ONE...POSSIBLY LEADING TO RAINFALL FOR LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MARINE... ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS STRONG NRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING LATER THIS EVENING AND LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY EVENING WHILE VEERING TO THE NE. INCREASING ERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CNTL GULF COAST AND LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED FOR THE SRN GULF. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 51 60 42 61 42 / 40 40 40 10 10 KBPT 50 59 43 60 42 / 30 40 40 10 10 KAEX 48 60 38 59 39 / 30 20 20 10 10 KLFT 52 64 43 61 43 / 40 40 40 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$