AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
705 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD-CORE LOW ALOFT...SITUATED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO...WILL TRAVEL WESTWARD...REACHING THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST
BY THIS EVENING.

DIFLUENT EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT...FOUND ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LOW...WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2011/

DISCUSSION...RADAR CURRENTLY CLEAR OF ANY PRECIP AFTER A FEW
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ACADIANA. PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH WESTWARD MIGRATING MID-UPPER LOW ADVANCING WEST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF. ANOTHER VERY WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT ONGOING WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HOVERING AROUND 80 DEGREES AT ALL SITES.

LIMITED CHANGES TO GRIDS AND FORECAST. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH WESTERN
ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW. UNFORTUNATELY LOWER LEVELS NOT EXHIBITING
SIMILAR CYCLONIC FLOW. ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT THEREFORE ABSENT FOR
MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAINS AND WILL AGAIN BE LOOKING AT MAINLY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY. CARRYING 30 PERCENT CHANCE AREA-WIDE AS REGION
MOVES ON EASTERN SIDE OF LOW AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES SLIGHTLY
DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND INLAND ADVANCEMENT.

LOW EXITS WEST AND 592 DM 500 MB HIGH REPOSITIONS FROM THE SOUTH
PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LINGERS INTO MID WEEK.
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID WEATHER THUS ON TAP WHILE RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN MINIMAL. MODELS SUGGESTING HIGH RETROGRADING FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK WITH SUBSIDENCE EASING WHILE HINTING AT BITS OF
ENERGY ROTATING ABOUT THE PERIPHERY OF FEATURE. THUS MAY BE
LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WEST ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A
PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  94  76  94  76  95 /  30  20  20  10  20
KBPT  93  77  94  76  95 /  30  20  20  10  20
KAEX  96  75  97  76  98 /  30  20  20  10  20
KLFT  94  75  95  77  95 /  30  20  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$