AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
931 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2011

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NERN GULF THIS
EVENING ALLOWING FOR A SRLY RETURN FLOW TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION ATTM. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE AN ASSOCIATED STRATOCU DECK MOVING
UP THE TEXAS COAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE A FAIR AMOUNT
OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SFC OBS ALSO INDICATE THAT
DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN DRAMATICALLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. RESULT OF
ALL THIS WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MUCH WARMER NIGHT TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TX ZONES. INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES ARE MOSTLY
IN GOOD SHAPE...ALTHOUGH A FEW TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS WILL REQUIRE A
SMALL UPDATE TO THE ZONES WHICH WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2011/

AVIATION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING RETURN FLOW STRATOCU CIGS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...A HARBINGER OF WHAT`S TO COME FOR OUR TERMINALS.
NAM H92 RH FIELD SHOWING A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN MOISTURE INTO SE
TX AND SW LA LATER THIS EVE. WILL INTRODUCE A MVFR STRATOCU CIG
INTO BPT AND AFTER MIDNIGHT LCH. THERE COULD BE IFR CIGS AS
MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES UNDER A SHALLOW CAP FOLLOWED A FEW
HOURS LATER BY THE ACADIANA AIRPORTS LFT AND ARA. AEX GETS INTO
THE ACT LATE TNITE WITH MVFR CIGS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL HAVE MVFR
CIGS WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY
THE AFTERNOON WITH BETTER MIXING.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2011/

.WITH READINGS RUNNING FROM 4 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BOTH
CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...DUE TO ADVECTIVE WARMING AND MOISTENING.

FOR MONDAY...MORNING CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND
CUMULIFORM BY MID MORNING. THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

IN ADDITION...THE MONDAY-AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN
.APPROACHING THE THRESHOLD FOR A WIND ADVISORY.

MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF TONIGHT...ONLY WARMER WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RUNNING FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

OUTLOOK...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY...AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA...BEFORE RETREATING
NORTHWARD INTO ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY.

MARINE...
THE MARINE LAYER HAS RETURNED TO IS MORE TYPICAL NEUTRAL
CONFIGURATION. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND WAVES WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...COURTESY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  64  82  71  84  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  66  81  72  85  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  60  82  69  87  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
KLFT  63  83  70  85  71 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
     CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
     FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

$$