AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
252 PM CST FRI MAR 12 2010

.SHORT TERM...
EXPECT BULK OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW IN
THE MID MS VALLEY TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION SHOULD DRIVE TONIGHTS LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO
THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS IN THE MID MS VALLEY WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO THE THE TN VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BE DISPLACED BY A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE
SLIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SINCE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO WEAK AND THERE WILL BE NO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
FROM THE GULF FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO WORK WITH. ANOTHER
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S THROUGH THURSDAY...WARMING TO NEAR 70
BY FRIDAY AS NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW DOMINATES IN THE LOWER LAYERS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE GULF SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN UP ON FRIDAY ONCE
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WORKING INTO THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
TOMORROW.  STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE TOMORROW...WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE.  32

&&

.MARINE...
A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
TIDAL LAKES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  STRONG NORTHWEST AND WEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS ENHANCED THERMAL MIXING TAKES PLACE.
THESE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGHER SEAS OF UP TO 10 FEET AT
TIMES OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.  DUE TO THESE WINDS AND SEAS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS
EXCLUDING THE TIDAL LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO EASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GULF
SOUTH.  HOWEVER...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS COULD INCREASE TO EXERCISE CAUTION
RANGE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.  32