AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1123 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AT EACH OF THE TAF LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTIONS MAY BE KMCB AND
KHUM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
LIGHT FOG AROUND SUNRISE. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011/

UPDATE...
ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LINGER BEYOND 00Z MONDAY. A DOWNWARD TREND IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING SO WE ONLY INSERTED CONVECTION
THROUGH 01Z. OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON PACKAGE IS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA.

LOCALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. A WEAK
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WAS PRESENT IN THIS MORNING/S SOUNDING. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS EVENING/S SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE
INVERSION HAS STRENGTHENED. HAVE ONLY SEEN ABOUT FIVE LIGHT
SHOWERS POP UP ON THE RADAR SCOPE THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE
SUBSIDENCE SEEMS TO BE EFFICIENT AT KEEPING CONVECTION IN CHECK.

DISCUSSION...
RIDGING EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
RESULTING IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...LOW
CHANCES OF RAIN AND ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DEWPOINTS WILL
CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 70 DEGREES. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S WILL COMBINE WITH THESE HIGH DEWPOINTS
TO RESULT IN PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR OVER 100 DEGREES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE HIGHEST VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY...WHEN SOME PLACES WILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105
AND 110 DEGREES.

BY MIDWEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST. AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD...IT MAY FORCE A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA WHICH WOULD ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

CONCERNING THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...NEARLY ALL OF THE 12Z MODELS NOW HOLD ON TO THE SYSTEM
AND REFLECT A WEAK CLOSED LOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE OR THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS A CHANGE
FROM JUST 12 HOURS AGO WHEN ONLY THE CANADIAN MODEL WAS SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THIS SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OR NOT...IT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
AREA OTHER THAN SOME MINOR IMPLICATIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ROUGHLY IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
WAVES WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW FOR THROUGH MONDAY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER THE FOLLOWING DAYS DUE TO A SWELL TRAIN MOVING OUT OF
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND FLORIDA STRAITS AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THAT AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEAS THAT ARE A COUPLE OF
FEET HIGHER THAN WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPECTED WITH THE FORECAST
WIND SPEEDS. THOUGH SOME WAVE MODELS INDICATE SEAS AS HIGH AS 6
OR 7 FEET...WILL CAP HEIGHTS AT 5 FEET FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW MUCH THE CARIBBEAN WAVE WILL DEVELOP AS IT MOVES WEST
THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND INTO CENTRAL MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  95  73  96 /  10  10   0  10
BTR  74  95  74  95 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  74  92  74  93 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  77  93  77  93 /  20  10  10  10
GPT  75  92  74  93 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  72  93  72  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$