AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1140 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011 .AVIATION... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED LATE THIS EVENING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...MARINE LAYER STRATUS SHOULD TRY TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG...HOWEVER THE EXCEPTION COULD BE THE TYPICAL SITES LIKE MCB/BTR/ASD WHICH COULD SEE VISIBILITIES DROP SOME. AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE QUICKLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE BALANCE OF THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 11 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011/ SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH A DRYLINE MOVING TOWARD THE DALLAS METROPLEX. ONSHORE FLOW HAS PROVIDED A HEALTHY CUMULUS FIELD WEST OF INTERSTATE 55...WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS EAST OF THERE. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. SHORT TERM... MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE UPPER LOW ROTATING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA IN A COUPLE OF WEEKS...BUT THAT BEING SAID...THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR MOST PEOPLE. CURRENT MODEL DATA INDICATES ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL FALL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS AMOUNT WOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF ISSUES. OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CAPES AROUND 2000...LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM...LIFTED INDICES AROUND -5...WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 10K FEET...ALL INDICATE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED THE AREA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY AND CONCUR. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A WIDESPREAD EVENT...BUT A FEW SEVERE REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING FRIDAY EVENING. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH AREAL COVERAGE SOMEWHERE IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE REASONABLY CLOSE THROUGH SATURDAY AND ACCEPTED...REALIZING THAT THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVE THUNDERSTORMS AT INOPPORTUNE TIMES FRIDAY WILL NOT REACH THEIR FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES. 35 LONG TERM... SECONDARY SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON MONDAY. GFS BRINGS THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH THAN DOES THE ECMWF...AND EXPECT THAT REALITY LIES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. IN EITHER CASE...LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN OUR AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE AIRMASS FAIRLY DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. 35 MARINE... MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TOMORROW AND MOST OF FRIDAY. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE RELAXING. THE SECOND LOW WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. 35 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 67 89 67 83 / 10 10 30 50 BTR 69 88 72 84 / 10 10 30 50 ASD 69 87 71 83 / 10 10 20 50 MSY 73 88 72 84 / 10 10 20 50 GPT 71 85 71 82 / 10 10 20 50 PQL 66 87 67 83 / 10 10 20 50 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$