AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 109 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011 .AVIATION...LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE UNDER PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH ANY AFTERNOON SHWRS/TSTMS INLAND AND WEST AWAY FROM THE ERN TERMINALS. BELIEVE ALSO THE STRONG EAST FLOW WILL PREVENT WEST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING AND SO THE CHANCES FOR SHWRS OR STORMS OVER THE WEST COAST WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE VCSH OR VCTS OUT OF THE TAFS AND INDICATE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SFC WINDS MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT, BUT WL INCREASE AGAIN TO ARND 10-12 KTS BY MID MORNING SATURDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011/ UPDATE... THE 500 MB HIGH WITH HEIGHTS OF 595-596 MBS WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND EXTENDED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH HEIGHTS OVER THE CWA OF 592-594 MBS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE 12Z MIA SOUNDING WAS SHOWING THE PWAT OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS BELOW THE 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL WHICH IS 1.65 INCHES ALONG WITH -4C TEMP AT THE 500 MB LEVEL. SO THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY STABLE THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN VERY STABLE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA FOR REST OF TODAY...AS THE MID LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE WEST. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE LOW CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE CWA FOR TODAY AND ONLY KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON ENCASE A LATE AFTERNOON WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TRIES TO DEVELOP. THE HIGHS TODAY WILL ALSO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS. THESE HIGHS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS ARE CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY WHICH ARE: 07/29/11 07/29/11 CITIES FORECAST HIGHS RECORD HIGHS RECORD HIGHS APF 96 97 - 1996 IMMOKALEE 98 96 - 2010 LA BELLE 98 98 - 1980 DEVILS GARDEN 97 99 - 1998 SO WILL MENTION NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA IN THE MORNING UPDATE. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLAN. UPDATE...54/BNB PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011/ AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT LEFT VCSH OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. EAST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT AND AS HIGH AS 25 KT EAST COAST SITES AROUND 14Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH DAYTIME PERIOD. STRENGTH OF EAST WIND MAY NOT ALLOW GULF COAST SEA BREEZE TO PENETRATE VERY FAR INLAND. ATTM...KEPT VCSH WITH CB FOR APF FOR THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODERATE EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS ONLY DIMINISHING TO 8-12 KNOTS FOR EAST COAST TAF SITES. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011/ DISCUSSION... RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE W INTERIOR/COAST TODAY AND SATURDAY... RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS POSSIBLE E COAST TONIGHT/SAT NIGHT... AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN TRIPLE DIGITS TODAY AND SATURDAY... HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES TODAY... DISCUSSION... HIGH PRES ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE SE U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT RETRO -GRADES W THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE ADJACENT N ATLC GRADUALLY DEEPENS. THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE S GREAT PLAINS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING FULL LATITUDE OVER THE ATLC. FOR THE SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY..A DEEP EASTERLY WIND FLOW OCCURS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS OVER S FLA AT THE MOMENT WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -5 C WHICH SUPPRESSES CONVECTION. THOUGH SOME ATLC/E COAST SHRA/ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SAT NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION NEARLY SQUASHED AND LIMITED TOWARD W COAST TODAY. A GRADUAL MOISTEN -ING AND COOLING ALOFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE OCCURS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH POPS GRADUALLY INCREASING. ABOVE NORMAL 500 MB HEIGHTS ALLOWS W COAST AND W INTERIOR AREAS TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE E COAST METRO AREAS TO BE NEAR THE MAX WARMEST LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AGAIN AS WELL. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS WITH 105 TO 110 CENTRAL AND WEST TODAY AND SATURDAY. EXTENDED FORECAST...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE S GREAT PLAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE W ATLC. STEERING WINDS DEVIATE FROM EASTERLY BY MID WEEK DUE TO THE ADJACENT UPPER TROUGH TO NORTHERLY BUT LEAN MORE EASTERLY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT E. ALL-IN-ALL...POPS HIGHER INTERIOR AND W FOR THE MOST PART WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE SEASONABLE. TROPICAL WAVES MOVING W THROUGH THE ATLC APPEAR TO REMAIN S OF AREA AND OVER CARIB THROUGH THE PERIOD. MARINE... EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS PALM BEACH WATERS AND 15 KNOTS MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD WATERS...COMBINED WITH LOW TIDES THIS LEADS TO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS E COAST BEACHES. OTHERWISE...THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY SUNDAY. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FIRE WEATHER... THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FIRE WEATHER OVER S FLA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CLIMATE... HERE ARE THE FORECAST AND WARMEST RECORD LOWS FOR THE EAST COAST SITES FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. 07/30/11 07/30/11 07/31/11 07/31/11 CITIES FORECAST RECORD FORECAST RECORD MIA 83 83 - 2002 82 83 - 1982 FLL 84 82 - 2006 83 82 - 2009 PBI 83 81 - 2002 82 81 - 1995 MIAMI BEACH 85 84 - 1982 83 84 - 1995 THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA COULD ALSO GET CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGHS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WHICH ARE: 07/29/11 07/29/11 07/30/11 07/30/11 CITIES FORECAST HIGHS RECORD HIGHS FORECAST HIGHS RECORD HIGHS APF 96 97 - 1996 95 98 - 1966 IMMOKALEE 97 96 - 2010 98 96 - 1998 LA BELLE 96 98 - 1980 98 99 - 1972 DEVILS GARDEN 97 99 - 1998 96 98 - 1998 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 83 91 82 91 / 10 20 10 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 84 90 83 91 / 10 20 10 20 MIAMI 83 91 82 91 / 10 20 10 20 NAPLES 78 95 77 95 / - 30 20 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$