AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 327 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011 .DISCUSSION... ...RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE W INTERIOR/COAST TODAY AND SATURDAY... ...RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS POSSIBLE E COAST TONIGHT/SAT NIGHT... ...AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN TRIPLE DIGITS TODAY AND SATURDAY... ...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES TODAY... DISCUSSION... HIGH PRES ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE SE U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT RETRO -GRADES W THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE ADJACENT N ATLC GRADUALLY DEEPENS. THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE S GREAT PLAINS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING FULL LATITUDE OVER THE ATLC. FOR THE SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY..A DEEP EASTERLY WIND FLOW OCCURS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS OVER S FLA AT THE MOMENT WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -5 C WHICH SUPPRESSES CONVECTION. THOUGH SOME ATLC/E COAST SHRA/ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SAT NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION NEARLY SQUASHED AND LIMITED TOWARD W COAST TODAY. A GRADUAL MOISTEN -ING AND COOLING ALOFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE OCCURS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH POPS GRADUALLY INCREASING. ABOVE NORMAL 500 MB HEIGHTS ALLOWS W COAST AND W INTERIOR AREAS TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE E COAST METRO AREAS TO BE NEAR THE MAX WARMEST LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AGAIN AS WELL. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS WITH 105 TO 110 CENTRAL AND WEST TODAY AND SATURDAY. .EXTENDED FORECAST...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE S GREAT PLAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE W ATLC. STEERING WINDS DEVIATE FROM EASTERLY BY MID WEEK DUE TO THE ADJACENT UPPER TROUGH TO NORTHERLY BUT LEAN MORE EASTERLY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT E. ALL-IN-ALL...POPS HIGHER INTERIOR AND W FOR THE MOST PART WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE SEASONABLE. TROPICAL WAVES MOVING W THROUGH THE ATLC APPEAR TO REMAIN S OF AREA AND OVER CARIB THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS PALM BEACH WATERS AND 15 KNOTS MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD WATERS...COMBINED WITH LOW TIDES THIS LEADS TO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS E COAST BEACHES. OTHERWISE...THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY SUNDAY. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .FIRE WEATHER... THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FIRE WEATHER OVER S FLA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .CLIMATE... HERE ARE THE FORECAST AND WARMEST RECORD LOWS FOR THE EAST COAST SITES FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. 07/30/11 07/30/11 07/31/11 07/31/11 CITIES FORECAST RECORD FORECAST RECORD MIA 83 83 - 2002 82 83 - 1982 FLL 84 82 - 2006 83 82 - 2009 PBI 83 81 - 2002 82 81 - 1995 MIAMI BEACH 85 84 - 1982 83 84 - 1995 THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA COULD ALSO GET CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGHS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WHICH ARE: 07/29/11 07/29/11 07/30/11 07/30/11 CITIES FORECAST HIGHS RECORD HIGHS FORECAST HIGHS RECORD HIGHS APF 96 97 - 1996 95 98 - 1966 IMMOKALEE 97 96 - 2010 98 96 - 1998 LA BELLE 96 98 - 1980 98 99 - 1972 DEVILS GARDEN 97 99 - 1998 96 98 - 1998 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 93 83 91 82 / 10 10 20 10 FORT LAUDERDALE 91 84 90 83 / 10 10 20 10 MIAMI 92 83 91 82 / 10 10 20 10 NAPLES 96 78 95 77 / 20 - 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$