AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 123 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011 .AVIATION...DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO SURFACE AND MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND DEEP SOUTH. WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL PWATS...RAINFALL CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW WITH ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER ON THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING. FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WITH THE MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW...THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE ABLE TO PUSH INLAND. THEREFORE...THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT KAPF THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LIKELY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL RELAX ONLY SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT TO 10-12 KNOTS AT THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 851 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2011/ UPDATE...NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR THE EVENING FORECAST. DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS BEEN FILTERING IN FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THIS SEEN ON THE 12Z AND 00Z MFL SOUNDINGS WITH THE PWAT FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND IS NOW DOWN TO 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR THE END OF JULY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS MUCH LESS THAN HAS BEEN OBSERVED THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH ONLY A FEW SHRA LEFT OVER THE ATLANTIC A ISOLD TSRA OVER THE GULF WATERS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY OVER THE MAINLAND. MARINE ZONES ALSO LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE. KOB PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2011/ .DRIER WEATHER THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA... .RECORD HIGHS WEST COAST AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND... .HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE LOWER 90S AT NIGHT EAST COAST AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND... DISCUSSION... THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A 500 MB HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS RETROGRADES WESTWARD THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA WITH HEIGHTS OF 595 TO 596 MBS. SOME OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME WITH HEIGHTS OF 593-594 MBS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE 500 MB TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO BE BETWEEN -4 TO -5 OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP A EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND IT WILL ALSO SUPPRESS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THAT THE WESTERN AREAS COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM IF THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. THEREFORE...THE THUNDER WORDING WILL BE REMOVE FROM MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS. THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW AND THE ABOVE NORMAL 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO BE NEAR THE MAXIMUM WARMEST LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS TO BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MORE ON THIS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. EXTENDED FORECAST... THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING THAT THE STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RETROGRADE WEST TOWARDS TEXAS EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA BACK INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA`S AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ALSO WORK BACK NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS OVER THE CWA EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE PALM BEACH COUNTY. MARINE... THE WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER MOST OF THE CWA WATERS, EXCEPT AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM THE 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT OVER MOST OF THE CWA WATERS TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY SUNDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THAT LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY SUNDAY. SO WILL PUT UP A SCEC FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS, EXCEPT LAKE OKEECHOBEE FOR TONIGHT. FIRE WEATHER... THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FIRE WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CLIMATE... HERE ARE THE FORECAST AND WARMEST RECORD LOWS FOR THE EAST COAST SITES FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. 07/29/11 07/29/11 07/30/11 07/30/11 CITIES FORECAST LOWS RECORD WARMEST LOWS FORECAST LOWS RECORD WARMEST LOWS MIA 83 83 - 1977 83 83 - 2002 FLL 84 82 - 1942 84 82 - 2006 PBI 83 81 - 2002 83 81 - 2002 MIAMI BEACH 85 84 - 2008 85 84 - 1982 THIS WILL ALSO MAKE THE HEAT INDEX READINGS TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S OVERNIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS...DUE TO THE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S. THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA COULD ALSO GET CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGHS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WHICH ARE: 07/29/11 07/29/11 07/30/11 07/30/11 CITIES FORECAST HIGHS RECORD HIGHS FORECAST HIGHS RECORD HIGHS APF 96 97 - 1996 96 98 - 1966 IMMOKALEE 98 96 - 2010 98 96 - 1998 LA BELLE 98 98 - 1980 98 99 - 1972 DEVILS GARDEN 96 99 - 1998 96 98 - 1998 SO WILL MENTION NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE ZONES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 92 83 92 82 / 10 10 20 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 91 84 91 83 / 10 10 20 20 MIAMI 92 83 92 82 / 10 10 20 20 NAPLES 96 78 96 79 / 20 10 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$