AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 837 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011 .AVIATION... OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO SPREADING INLAND OVER THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY WILL BE TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INSERT THIS POSSIBILITY OVER THE APF TERMINAL AT THIS TIME. 85/GIBBS && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011/ ..CONTINUE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND... ..RETURN TO MORE NORMAL WEATHER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK... DISCUSSION... THE 500 MB RIDGE WITH HEIGHTS OF 595-596 MBS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF COAST STATES FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...AS THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL TAKE THE DRY AIR CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE WEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND OVER THE CWA. SO THE DRIER WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT WILL BECOME MORE MOIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...ON SATURDAY THE EAST COAST WILL ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEFORE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR SUNDAY. REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY BEFORE GOING TO LOW END CHANCE ON SUNDAY. THE HIGHS WILL STILL BE RUNNING IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WITH MID TO UPPER 90S OVER REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...AS THE 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE IN THE 592-594 MBS OVER THE CWA. SO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS COULD STILL SEE NEAR RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND. THE LOWS WILL ALSO STILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S EACH NIGHT THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. THESE LOWS ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WILL ALSO STILL BE NEAR THE MAXIMUM RECORD LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MORE ON THESE RECORDS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. EXTENDED FORECAST... THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS ARE THE HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF COAST STATES EXTENDING BACK INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IN A EASTERLY DIRECTION AND FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY THE LONG RANGE MODELS TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT IT IS TO EARLY TO TELL WHAT IMPACT IF ANY THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON LOCAL WEATHER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS. MARINE WEATHER... THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY BEFORE DECREASING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO DECREASE FROM 4 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 2 FEET BY SUNDAY. IN THE GULF WATERS...THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 2 FEET THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO THE BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. THE ENHANCE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND BEFORE DECREASING LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRE WEATHER... THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FIRE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. CLIMATE... HERE ARE THE FORECAST AND WARMEST RECORD LOWS FOR THE EAST COAST SITES FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. 07/30/11 07/30/11 07/31/11 07/31/11 CITIES FORECAST RECORD FORECAST RECORD MIA 83 83 - 2002 82 83 - 1982 FLL 84 82 - 2006 83 82 - 2009 PBI 83 81 - 2002 82 81 - 1995 MIAMI BEACH 85 84 - 1982 84 84 - 1995 THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA COULD ALSO GET CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGHS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WHICH ARE: 07/30/11 07/30/11 07/31/11 07/31/11 CITIES FORECAST HIGHS RECORD HIGHS FORECAST HIGHS RECORD RECORD HIGHS APF 96 98 - 1996 95 96 - 1988 IMMOKALEE 98 96 - 1998 97 98 - 1998 LA BELLE 98 99 - 1972 97 98 - 2000 DEVILS GARDEN 96 98 - 1998 95 96 - 2002 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 93 83 93 82 / 10 10 20 10 FORT LAUDERDALE 91 84 91 83 / 10 10 20 10 MIAMI 92 83 92 82 / 10 10 20 10 NAPLES 96 77 96 77 / 20 20 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$