AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 840 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 830 PM MONDAY...SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE OUTER BANKS. THESE CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSE TO FREEZING AND WILL CONTINUE FREEZE WARNING WITH FROST ADVISORY CLOSER TO THE COAST. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST OTHER THAN ADJUSTING THE SKY COVER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... A NICE ALBEIT COOL DAY SETTING UP FROM TUESDAY BRINGING A BRIEF RESPITE TO THE RECENT SPELL OF DAMP WEATHER. WEAK SFC HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE COAST TOMORROW SO THIS LACK OF RETURN FLOW AND ONLY WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION KEEPS HIGHS BLO NORMAL (MAINLY M-U50S COAST TO LOW 60S INLAND)...BUT WILL FEEL GOOD (WITH SOME DECENT SUNSHINE) AFTER SEVERAL OF WELL BLO NORMAL READINGS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 4 PM MON...NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP WILL WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST PASSING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING TO CATEGORICAL FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. TAPERED OFF POPS TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING. KEPT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT NOT TOO MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WENT NO HIGHER THAN 40% POPS. ONLY KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHEAST AREAS SATURDAY MORNING. FINALLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESURE OVER THE GULF STATES SUNDAY MOVING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 830 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE BRIEF BOUTS OF MVFR FOG TOWARD MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/ MAINLY VFR GOING INTO THIS EVE AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE WITH CLEARING MOVING IN FROM THE NW. WITH CLEARING SKIES LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND...PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. VFR/GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER ANY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF TUESDAY. LONG TERM/TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/ AS OF 4 PM MON...POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOW VISIBILITIES & CEILINGS. PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY UNSETTLED WITH A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY...THEN A WEAK FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 30-60% EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN WIDESPREAD RAIN...80% CHANCE...IS EXPECTED. && .MARINE... AS OF 835 PM MONDAY...WITH WINDS HAVING DIMINISHED AND MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THIS CONTINUING...HAVE OPTED TO DROP SCA FOR ALL WATERS. UPDATED CWF ALREADY SENT OUT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM/THROUGH TUESDAY/ MARGINAL SCAS FOR PAMLICO AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE GOING INTO THE EVE. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE DECREASING OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES WELL OF THE NC COAST AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. STILL A BIT CHOPPY IN MODERATE NE FLOW EARLY TUE BUT BOATING CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER ON AS WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING TUE AFTN. LONG TERM/TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/ AS OF 4 PM MON...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD WITH A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. FOR THE MOST PART WENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AS IT IS CLOSEST TO THE HPC SURFACE GRAPHICS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. FLOW WILL BECOME OFFSHORE BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP SEAS UNDER 6 FEET. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ029- 044>046-079>081-090>094-098. FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ047-095- 103. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTC NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...BTC LONG TERM...HSA AVIATION...CTC/BTC/HSA MARINE...CTC/BTC/HSA