AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 217 PM EST FRI MAR 12 2010 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 215 PM FRI...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST ALONG THE SC/NC COAST...WITH OTHER LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT. ANOTHER TRICKY PRECIP FORECAST TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. OVERALL THINK BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. SO HAVE LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT AND CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 06Z. DON`T EXPECT TO SEE ORGANIZED SVR WX...BUT COULDN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 215 PM FRI....FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY SAT WITH MOISTURE...GFS MOVES IT NE MUCH QUICKER...WHILE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE IT LINGERING THROUGH LATE MORNING. UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DIVE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY. BY SAT NIGHT IT WILL BE RIGHT OVER EASTERN NC. SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING MARGINAL INSTABILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS SFC LOW AND UPPER LOW MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE. THINK CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 215 PM FRI...RELATIVELY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HPC PROGS HAVE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST THU-FRI...WITH LONG RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. SO ATTM HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AS GENERAL UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE ERN US. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 2 PM FRI...LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE S. WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER ERN HALF OF REGION WILL SHIFT N INTO THE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES ONSHORE. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR THIS AFTN WITH MORE WIDESPREAD IFR TOWARD EVENING. IFR OR WORSE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK GRDNT AS LOW LIFTS TO THE N. SOME SCT SHRA WILL BE POSS ESPCLY ACROSS THE N LATE AS SRT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. ON SAT LOW PRES WILL ORGANIZE TO THE N WITH SW LOW LVL FLOW...THIS SHLD GRAD DRY OUT LOW LVLS WITH CONDS BECOMING MVFR MID MORN AND VFR BY AFTN. SOME SCT CONVECTION WILL BE POSS BUT AT THIS POINT THINK CVRG WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN TAFS. MAINLY VFR REST OF PERIOD AS LOW DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MAY SEE A PERIOD OR TWO OF MVFR CIGS IN SCU MON INTO MON NIGHT WITH AN INVERSION DEVLOPING...BUT NOT SURE WILL BE MOIST ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. && .MARINE... AS OF 2 AM FRI...LOW PRES JUST OFF CAPE FEAR WILL CONT TO DRIFT N AND MOVE ONSHORE LATER THIS EVENING. TIGHT GRDNT N OF LOW IS PRODUCING SOLID SCA WINDS FROM LOOKOUT TO CAPE HATTERAS. THESE STRONG SCA WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT N THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO GALES ESPCLY N OF OCRACOKE THIS EVENING...WILL CONT TO WATCH TRENDS BUT FOR NOW HOLDING ON TO STRONG SCA. STRONGER WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING N OF REGION BY 06Z WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE WINDS AOB 15 KTS LATE TONIGHT. ON SAT THE LOW WILL ORGANIZE TO THE N WITH INCREASING SW WINDS ESPCLY CNTRL AND SRN WTRS WITH SPEEDS IN THESE AREAS LIKELY IN SCA RANGE. AS THE LOW SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY MON FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NW TO N WITH SPEEDS HOLDING NEAR SCA LVLS ESPCLY N OF OCRACOKE. WINDS WILL GRAD COME DOWN TUE INTO WED AS THE LOW DEPARTS. FOR SEAS BLENDED WAVEWATCH AND SWAN FOR THE FIRST FEW PERIODS. SEAS WILL MAX OUT 12 TO 15 FEET OFF OBX THIS EVENING. DESPITE LIGHTER WINDS AFT 06Z EXPECT SEAS WILL REMAIN IN SCA RANGE. AS SW FLOW INCREASES SAT WILL AGAIN SEE SOME SEAS IN THE 10 FT RANGE FOR OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE HAT S. SCA SEAS SHLD FINALLY END SUN NIGHT SRN WTRS WITH MORE OFFSHORE N/NW FLOW. SEAS OVER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS LOOK TO STAY IN SCA RANGE RIGHT THROUGH WED. THE STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE WATER LEVELS ALONG THE OBX THIS EVENING...HOWEVER GIVEN THE RATHER SHORT DURATION AND LOW TIDE CYCLE NOT EXPECTING COASTAL FLOODING. WILL ISSUE A BRIEF HIGH SURF ADVRY FROM CARTERET COUNTY N...MAINLY FOR THE EVENING HOURS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ103-104. HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ095. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150-152- 154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CQD NEAR TERM... CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...RF MARINE...RF