AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 949 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2009 .SYNOPSIS... A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS SHOWN LITTLE MOVEMENT SINCE THIS AFTERNOON AND AT 01Z WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG A SW-NE AXIS FROM NEAR KISO TO KMQI. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY NE FLOW CONTINUES WITH LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY STRONG SW FLOW HAD INITIALLY SCOURED OUT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BUT ADVECTIVE PROCESSES ARE PRODUCING SEA FOG AND STRATUS WHICH ARE NOW MOVING INLAND. THINKING HERE HERE IS THAT LOW VISIBILITIES IN SEA FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE SE COAST BUT WILL TEND TO MIX OUT INTO A LOW STRATUS DECK INLAND. THUS SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SPEAKING OF THE FRONT...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT IT WILL FINALLY LIFT NW OF THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW LEADING TO RISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATED THAT PROSPECTS FOR ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE EXTREMELY LOW THUS NO MENTION IN THE EVENING UPDATE. OTHER THAN TO TWEAK CLOUD COVER NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE EXISTING GRIDS AND FORECASTS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY...BEGINNING INLAND. ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER IN FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. SPC HAS AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LI`S -1 TO -3...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SFC INSTABILITY...BUT CROSS TOTALS INDEX SHOWS THAT THERE COULD BE ELEVATED CONVECTION. SO FAIRLY CONFIDENT THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A 50-60 KT LLJ AT 925MB DURING THE MORNING WITH GFS SHOWING 60-70 KT JET OVER THE OBX IN THE AFTERNOON...AS A 925 MB TROUGH MOVES ACROSS ERN NC. HOW MUCH THOSE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OBX DARE/HYDE AND CARTERET COUNTIES FOR WEDNESDAY. RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. INCREASED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT STILL QUITE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WARMEST GUIDANCE...WHICH HAVE SOME SITES REACHING 80 DEG. RECORDS: MHX 75 1998 EWN 74 1953 HSE 72 1930 PGV 75 1998 FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 40S WITH STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THU AND THU NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING REINFORCING CAA. HIGH BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FRI-SAT BEFORE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. DOESN`T APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT. SO WILL LEAVE POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW END CHANCE FOR NOW. AND FURTHER INTO THE PERIOD BOTH HPC/ECMWF SHOW LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. SO LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE LINGERING MOISTURE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 9 PM...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KINSTON(ISO) TO MANTEO(MQI). LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH BOTH KISO AND KPGV TERMINALS REPORTING VSBYS AOB 1/2SM AND CIGS AROUND 100 FT. WINDS WERE LIGHT NORTHERLY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND SW 10 TO 15 KT SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A BKN-OVC STRATUS DECK AROUND 1000 FT AFFECTING THE KOAJ AND KEWN TERMINALS. AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO VIRGINIA AFT MIDNIGHT WITH SW WINDS INCREASING OVER THE TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL MIXING WITH INCREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AFT MIDNIGHT BUT MOISTURE TRANSPORT BENEATH STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL RESULT IN MAINLY MVFR BKN-OVC STRATUS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. INCLUDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO ALL TERMINALS FROM 02Z TO 08Z AS MODELS INDICATE 925 MB WINDS AROUND 50 KT WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. WIND SHEAR THREAT WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY OVER THE TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL PROVE TO VFR WED MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND PSBL AN ISOLATED TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE CONDITIONS WEDS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHILE THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES...EXPECT LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS IN VSBY IN FOG AND/OR PRECIP...MAINLY SUNDAY. && .MARINE... LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT MARINE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TWEAKED WINDS/SEAS TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS OTHERWISE LEFT HEADLINES AS IS WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER ALL WATERS WED MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP AFT MIDNIGHT AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SEAS WILL BUILD OVERNIGHT 5 TO 8 FT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS UNDER STRENGTHENING SW FLOW WITH 4 TO 6 FT OVER NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD 8 TO 12 FT CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS AND 5 TO 8 FT NORTH ON WED UNDER CONTINUED STRONG SW FLOW. INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z THURSDAY WITH A SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A NOCTURNAL SURGE THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS LIKELY STAY IN SCA RANGE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LULL IN THE WIND FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...BUT STRONG SW FLOW AGAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT ON SATURDAY WITH SCA WINDS AGAIN LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AND BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS...HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE WAVEWATCH OUTPUT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ047-081-095-103-104. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CQD