AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 944 PM EST SAT FEB 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 935 PM SATURDAY...ATMOSPHERE FINALLY STARTING TO CHANGE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. STRONG H9-H8 MOISTURE FLUX OVER THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT. PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALL ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THRU THE 50S. WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SPREADS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH OVERNIGHT. LATEST QPF FORECAST STILL SHOWS UPWARDS OF ONE HALF INCH TOTAL THRU MIDDAY SUNDAY. NO CHANGES TO MIN TEMPERATURES FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 48 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE AS RAIN BECOMES STEADIER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... THE FRONT AND ASSOCD STEADIER RAIN WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH THRU THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. PCPN WILL TAPER OFF AND BECOME MORE SPOTTY DURING THE AFTN BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY CLEARING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS STUCK UNDER AN INVERSION. ONLY SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISES WILL BE A RESULT OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER AND PCPN WITH HIGHS LOWER 50S NORTH TO UPPER 50S/ARND 60 SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 245 PM SAT...COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW WILL BE OFF CAPE FEAR SUN NIGHT WITH PRECIP DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE LATE. SURFACE HIGH BRIEFLY NOSES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION MON MORNING WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFF THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT 18Z. MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A STRONGER SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS NE ALONG THE COAST RATHER THAN E WELL OFF THE COAST WITH THE GFS. THE ECMWF ALSO APPEARS ABOUT 12 HOURS LATER THAN THE GFS. A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF CAPE FEAR AND PUSH NORTHEAST LATE MON INTO EARLY TUES AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND VORTMAX PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION. FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ALOFT WITH SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY MOVING SE ACROSS EASTERN NC. FORECAST WED INTO EARLY THURS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY BUT BECOMES TRICKY GIVEN THE LOCATION OF A SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO CROSS NORTH OF THE REGION AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL WED INTO THURS BUT A MORE SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...OR A MORE NORTHERN MOVEMENT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND THE REGION COULD SEE MEASURABLE PRECIP. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A MODEL COMPROMISE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE THEN LEANED TO THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE. BY LATE WEEK A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURS AFTERNOON INTO THURS NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST FRI. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/ AS OF 635 PM SATURDAY...CURRENT VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR BY ABOUT 03Z AS PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY INCREASES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WITH INCREASED ISENTROPIC LIFT. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY STAY LOCKED IN AT IFR STATUS THRU MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 250 PM SAT...WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING WILL SETUP SUN NIGHT AS COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. A SURFACE LOW IS PROJECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FROM SW TO NE MON WITH SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TUES INTO WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 945 PM SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THRU MIDDAY SUNDAY. WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE OVER THE PAST HOUR WHICH MATCHES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE RUC13. WINDS ARE NW OVER THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS AND ARE SW/WSW ELSEWHERE. THEY SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER TO W/WNW AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE. SEAS ARE UP TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS WINDS RAMP UP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SAT...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH THE FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HANDLING SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION DIFFERENTLY. BY SUN NIGHT EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N BRINGING MODERATE NLY FLOW AROUND 15-25 KT AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 7 FT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON AND EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURING THE DAY MON. A LOW PRES SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WITH FASTER MODEL TRACKING THE LOW ACROSS THE REGION MON AND SLOWER SOLUTIONS LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINIMAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM IF STRONGER MODEL SOLUTIONS VERIFY BUT WILL KEEP JUST BELOW ATTM. HIGH PRES IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TUE THROUGH WED BRINGING MODERATE NLY FLOW BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156- 158. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ150. && $$