AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 450AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY...STALL OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MOVE SOUTHEAST MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 420 AM FRI...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BLOSSOMED ALONG S COAST AND LATEST MODELS SUPPORT ACTIVITY SPREADING N-NE MAINLY ALONG AND E OF HWY 17 EARLY THIS MORNING...THUS INCREASED LIKELY POPS THAT AREA WITH LOWER CHC TO W. 05Z HI RES RUC HAS GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...AND INDICATES COASTAL ACTIVITY DIMINISHING MID MORNING WITH DEVELOPMENT THEN SPREADING INLAND WITH SEA BREEZE. WITH TROPICAL MSTR IN PLACE AND ADDITIONAL SHRT WV ENERGY SPREADING IN FROM S-SW...LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD FOR ALL ZONES DURING AFTN. ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS LIKELY AGAIN THIS AFTN ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZE FLOOD THREAT WITH PRECIP WATER JUST OVER 2 INCHES. EXPECT ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUDS TO SUPPORT MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO ON THU...AROUND 90 INLAND AND UPR 80S COAST. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 420 AM FRI...SCT-BKN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING...THEN MODELS INDICATE LESS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK SHRT WV RIDGING AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LVL TROF. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FCST CHC POPS OVERNIGHT...HIGHEST W AND N AND ALONG COAST. MOS BLEND SUPPORTS PERSISTENCE FOR MIN TEMPS...MAINLY LOW-MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 230 AM FRI...CONTINUED LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS SAT. MDLS CONT TO SHOW LOTS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIP WTRS VALUES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. WILL HAVE A DECENT SRT WAVE ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE NW AND A SFC FRONT DROPPING SE INTO THE REGION. ALL THESE FACTORS SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF SHRA AND TSRA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN A GOOD BET. IF GET SOME HEATING SAT WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL. FRONT WILL GRAD SAG S THRU THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. DECENT MOISTURE WILL CONT OVER SRN TIER INTO SUNDAY SO WILL CONT LIKELY POPS SRN HALF SAT NIGHT WITH CHC S TO NO POPS N FOR SUNDAY. FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TO THE S SUN NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES GRAD SHIFTING OFF THE CST MONDAY. EXPECT JUST ISOLD ACTIVITY FOCUSED INLAND DURING AFTN AND EVENING MON AND TUE AS UPR RDG TO THE W EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. MADE NO CHANGES TO WED AND THU...MDLS DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING OF FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH GFS FASTER. TEMPS ON SAT WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 90 WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP...LESS PRECIP SUN ESPCLY N WITH SOME LOWER 90S LIKELY. AS UPR RDG BUILDS OVER THE REGION SHLD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S EARLY NEXT WEEK INLAND WITH POSS TEMPS DROPPING A BIT MID TO LATE WEEK AS FRONT APPROACHES/CROSSES. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... /SHORT TERM 06Z FRI-06Z SAT/... AS OF 140 AM FRIDAY...ANOTHER TRICKY OVERNIGHT FCST AS DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL AFFECT TAF SITES INTO EARLY MORNING. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THREAT SHIFTING TO COAST AGAIN REST OF NIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED THREAT INLAND. ALL SITES EXCEPT KOAJ RECEIVED PCPN DURING LATE AFTN/EVENING WHICH WOULD GENERALLY FAVOR IFR VSBY/CIG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THIS AND CONTINUED WITH PREVIUOS FCST THINKING OF PERIOD OF MVFR. SCT-BKN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTN AND EVE WITH SEA BREEZE AND HEATING. /LONG TERM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 230 AM FRI...WET PERIOD WILL CONTINUE SAT WITH GOOD CVRG OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH PDS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY. WOULD EXPECT WILL HAVE SOME FOG AND REDUCED VSBYS SAT NIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST GROUND. MAINLY VFR MON AND TUE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP...AS USUAL CANT RULE OUT MAINLY LATE NIGHT FOG/ST. IF WE GET THE EXPECTED RAIN THE NEXT CPL DAYS WILL HOPEFULLY SEE PENDER COUNTY WILDFIRE GREATLY REDUCED WITH LESS SMOKE. && .MARINE... /SHORT TERM TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 420 AM FRI...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON TIGHTENING PRES GRAD THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT...AND LEANED TO GFS/ECMWF BLEND RESULTING IN 20-25 KTS ALL BUT ALB SOUND. THUS ADDED PAM SOUND AND WATERS N OF OREGON INLET TO SCA BUT JUST FOR TONIGHT. CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS ALREADY HAVE SEAS TO AROUND 6 FT...EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 8 FT OUTER PORTIONS THIS EVENING. /LONG TERM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 230 AM FRI...SW WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING EARLY SAT AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW...SHLD STILL HAVE SCA SEAS CNTRL AND SRN WTRS THRU AT LEAST MIDDAY. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU NRN HALF OF REGION BY LATE SATURDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NE BEHIND FRONT...SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 15 KTS. FRONT WILL CONT TO MOVE S THRU THE REGION BY EARLY SUN WITH MOSTLY NE WINDS EARLY SUN BECOMING MORE E LATE. FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH HIGH PRES SLIDING OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT AND MON...THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS VEERING TO SE SUN NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY S BU LATE MON. SW FLOW THEN WILL SET UP MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH HIGH OFFSHORE AND FRONT/TROF TO THE W. WITH WINDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 KTS SUN THRU TUE EXPECT SEAS OF MOSTLY 2 TO 3 FEET...LIKELY BUILDING TO 4 FT OUTER WTRS LATER TUE AS SW WINDS INCREASE A BIT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-150. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154- 156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM