AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 746 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY...STALL OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 745 PM THURSDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND MINOR FLOODING/ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE BRIEFLY COMING TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY AFTER 03Z BUT WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOWS AND STILL MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP A CHANCE POP ALL NIGHT. LATE TONIGHT THE GUIDANCE WAS FORECASTING MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MOVING INLAND FROM THE OCEAN AND OUR FORECASTS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND WITH INCREASED POPS/QPF ALONG THE COAST ALTHOUGH TIMING UNCERTAIN. THE 12Z NSSL WRF BRINGS THE CONVECTION INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT WHILE THE NAM/GFS ARE CLOSER TO 09Z AND THE ECMWF 06Z. HEAVY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE A THREAT WITH PW VALUES AOA 2". ANOTHER WARM NIGHT UPCOMING WITH MINS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...PATTERN STARTS TO EVOLVE TO A WETTER ONE BEGINNING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL AND HIGH THETA-E AIR IS ADVECTED TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR FRIDAY AND WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS AREA-WIDE. WILL ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP BY GOING A LITTLE BELOW THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND CLOSER TO THE SREF BIAS-CORRECTED MAX TEMP GRIDS WHICH KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 80S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 315 PM THUR...MORE IN THE WAY OF SCT THUNDERSHOWERS EXPECTED ON FRI NIGHT AS E NC WILL BE IN A COL AREA BETWEEN CARIBBEAN WAVE RIDING UP THE COAST AND TROUGHING TO THE NORTH. BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE OFFSHORE...AND WELL INLAND. WIDESPREAD TSRA LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR SAT AS A PIECE OF NRN STREAM TROUGH BREAKS AWAY AND SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH INTO NC...COUPLED WITH SFC COLD FRONT. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONG AT THE SFC...AND COUPLED WITH VERY HIGH PWATS AOA 2 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STORMS. ANY DIABATIC HEATING IN THE AM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE ALREADY UNSTABLE ATMS. IT APPEARS DOWNBURST WINDS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION ON SAT. TO AID IN THE HEAVY RAIN...STORM MOTION WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE W-E BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS SOUTH. THE SLOW MOVING FRONT/TROUGH WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES HIGH ON SAT EVENING ACROSS SRN HALF OF CWA. BY SUN...MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER ON ON DISSIPATION/PASSAGE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE INC POPS TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS SRN CWA. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY AS PWATS WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE. MAY HAVE TO INC POPS TO LIKELY SHOULD WET TREND CONTINUE. FOR TUE...TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN TAKES HOLD WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY TO SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY. TEMPS/TD`S WILL BE ON THE INC AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS/STORMS ON WED AS IT SAGS INTO E NC FROM THE NORTH. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... /SHORT TERM TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/... AS OF 745 PM THURSDAY...WILL FORECAST A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT FOG AND LOWER CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS AND WET GROUNDS FROM RAINS AT OR NEAR ISO/EWN AND PGV. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE ISOLATED FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING THEN BECOME MORE NUMEROUS SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. GRADIENT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO GUST TO 20 KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. /LONG TERM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM THUR...WET PERIOD WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED...THOUGH TEMPO MVFR/IFR LIKELY WITH PASSAGE OF STORMS AS HEAVY RAIN WILL RESTRICT VSBYS. AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME CALM AND PROVIDED CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOP. RAIN AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO SUN AS COLD FRONT AND TROUGH REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. && .MARINE... /SHORT TERM TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/... AS OF 745 PM THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY AS SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL INCREASES DUE TO THE VERY LARGE FETCH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION AROUND A LARGE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH. THE COMBINED SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 7 FEET ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF SLOW- MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BECOMES EFFECTIVE AT 7 PM OVER THE OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE WATERS AND AT 11 PM SOUTH TO SURF CITY. /LONG TERM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM THUR...STRONG SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND STRENGTHEN FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT...AS GRADIENT IS MAXIMIZED WITH APPROACH OF NRN TROUGH AND DEPARTURE OF BERMUDA HIGH PRES. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS PAMLICO SOUND AND NRN OUTER WATERS SOMETIME LATE FRI OR EARLY SAT EVENING...AS WIND GUSTS APPROACH AND SURPASS 25 KTS. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET ACROSS ALL OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS... WITH SOME WAVES 7 FEET OR MORE ACROSS THE CENTRAL OUTER WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA ON SAT MORNING...THOUGH LINGERING LARGE SWELL WILL LINGER INTO SAT AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. WINDS SWITCH TO NE ON SUN AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A RETURN SRLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUN EVENING...LINGERING THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED AFTERNOON WITH WINDS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING NE. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC