AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 838 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL RIDGE SOUTH OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS TO THE SOUTHWEST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 830 PM WEDNESDAY...QUIET WX EXPECTED OVER ERN NC OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES CONTS TO EXTEND S IN TO THE AREA. SKIES HAVE GONE MCLR NE SECTIONS WITH STILL SCT/BKN CLOUDS ACROSS THE SW TIER. SHLD BE ENOUGH BREAKS ALL AREAS FOR LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. SMOKE CONTS TO MOVE SW FROM THE WILDFIRE IN MAINLAND DARE COUNTY. THINK HEAVY SMOKE WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NEAR THE FIRE SO WILL ISSUE SPS FOR MAINLAND PARTS OF DARE AND HYDE COUNTIES. FURTHER S AND W WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT SMOKE AT TIMES BUT NOT CONFIDENT WILL RESULT IN REAL LOW VSBYS SO WILL JUST KEEP AREAS OF SMOKE IN FCST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...MAIN QUESTION OUTSIDE OF WILDFIRE CONCERNS IS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE STAGNANT RIDGE AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN NC. THE NAM KEEPS SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL DAY AND CONVERSELY IS 5 DEGREES OR MORE COOLER FOR HIGHS THAN THE GFS. BASED ON TRENDS FROM THE PREVIOUS 2 DAYS OPTED FOR THE WARMER GFS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S EXPECTED. SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRE WILL AFFECT THE AREA ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE POSSIBLE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. E CONUS RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY...AS DEEP INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TROUGH MOVES EAST. KEPT LOW POPS IN GRIDS FOR FRI...AS BEST FORCING REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE FA. WILL MAINLY SEE INC IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS MID LEVEL WAA COMMENCES...THOUGH DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME SHOWERS ESP BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UPPER LOW MOVES EAST TO A POSITION OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON SAT AS INDICATED BY ALL MID AND LONG RANGE MODELS. HTS FALL A BIT MORE AS SW FLOW INC AND RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FURTHER ALONG THE COAST. INC POPS TO CHANCE AS FORCING/MOISTURE INC. EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR SUN AS MID LEVEL TROUGH SHEARS OUT AND MOVES NE THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WEAK SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NE THROUGH THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC ENHANCING PRECIP COVERAGE. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES A BIT TOWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN TIMING AND SET UP OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES...THOUGH IT DOES APPEAR THAT CLOSED LOW MAY BECOME CUT OFF WITH REX BLOCK FEATURE DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN CONUS. ATTM...KEPT POPS ON THE LOW END CHANCE CAT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH... PRECIP CHANCES WILL INC QUITE A BIT. TSTORMS WILL BE A THREAT FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS E NC WILL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF SW FLOW WITH LOW PRES REMAINING TO THE WEST. CAPE VALS WILL BE AOA 1000J/KG AT TIMES. WITH LITTLE SHEAR HOWEVER...STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WELL ORGANIZED. THOUGH WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...CHANCES FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 830 PM WEDNESDAY...MUCH LIKE PAST CPL NIGHT WILL FCST MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE/LIGHT FOG LATER TONIGHT. ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF VSBYS WILL DROP LOWER BUT GIVEN PERSISTENCE FEEL BEST TO GO WITH MVFR. OUTSIDE OF THESE REDUCED VSBYS AT TIMES THINK CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THRU THU AS HIGH PRES CONTS TO DOMINATE. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. WITH DECOUPLING OF WINDS POSSIBLE AND CLEAR NIGHTTIME SKIES...CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR FOG FOR NIGHTLY TAFS. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR IN REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE SE CONUS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 830 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREV FCST WITH SCA CONT N OF CAPE LOOKOUT IN MAINLY LARGE NE SWELLS FROM SLOW MOVING LOW WELL TO THE NE. WILL HAVE A FEW WINDS GUSTS AOA 20 KTS ESPCLY CNTRL WTRS BUT MAIN STORY WILL BE THE SWELL. PREV DISC...MAIN CONCERN IS SWELL FROM DISTANT ATLANTIC STORM DRIFTING SE. WAVE WATCH AND SWAN HAVE BEEN UNDERDONE WITH SEAS PEAKING AT 10 FT SO FAR AT BUOY 41025. THINK SWELL WILL MAINTAIN PRESENT MAGNITUDE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE. FORECAST WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE BY 2 FT CENTRAL WATERS AND 1 FT ELSEWHERE. SOME CONCERN SWELL REACHES 6 FT OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEED FOR AN ADVISORY THERE. AS THE LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE COAST THIS EVENING NE WINDS WILL PEAK AT 15-20 KT THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KT LATE AND CONTINUE 10 TO 15 KT THURSDAY. VERY CLOSE TO HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA NORTH OF LOOKOUT WITH 8-10 FT SEAS OCCURRING OFF THE OUTER BANKS. WITH CONDITIONS THOUGHT TO HAVE REACHED THEIR PEAK WILL HOLD OFF BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THURSDAY ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AS EARLY AS FRI AFTERNOON DUE TO APPROACHING WESTERN U.S LOW. SCA CRITERIA WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS...AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS THE SW FLOW INC THIS WEEKEND. A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED FCST...NAMELY FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152- 154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ156. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME