AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 623 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY...STALL OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 620 PM FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION IS IN A LULL AT THE CURRENT TIME WHICH WAS WELL DEPICTED BY THE 4 KM EMC AND NSSL WRF MODELS AND THE NAM12. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE BEST H8 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE LOCATED. ANTICIPATE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM THE WEST TOWARD MORNING AS STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO LOWER POPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... SFC BNDRY AND ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE TROF WILL CROSS THE FCST AREA ON SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BNDRY WILL FOCUS STORMS/HEAVIER PRECIP AND THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THRU SATURDAY ARE LIKELY TO AVERAGE AN INCH OR TWO BUT CUD BE ERRATIC GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE HEAVIER RAINSHOWERS. CLOUDS/PCPN HOLDS TEMPS IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM FRI...COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF FA BY SUN NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRES BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT BRINGING SUBSIDENCE AND A RETURN TO A QUIET AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT HOWEVER...AS RECENT HEAVY RAINS WILL PROVIDE FOR A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MON. QUICK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS MON WITH MAX T`S REBOUNDING INTO THE 90S AND RH VALUES INCREASING AS WELL. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH AN ISO STORM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. CONTINUED WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR TUE AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. 850 MB TEMPS SOAR TO AOA 20C AND COMBINED WITH HIGH TD`S HEAT INDICES WILL SURPASS 100 DEGREES F FOR MOST INLAND LOCALES. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT THROUGH E NC ON TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. MAGNITUDE OF FORCING IS STILL QUESTIONABLE AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED...THOUGH IT APPEARS THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE WILL BE THERE...SO INC POPS TO CHANCE FOR TUE NIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE A PROGRESSIVE FROPA...SO CHANCES FOR PRECIP DIMINISH TO SLIGHT CHANCE ON WED. MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON WED...WITH ECM DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ON BROAD NEW ENGLAND MID LEVEL TROUGH. WITH LACK OF SUPPORT FROM GFS/GEM AND NCEP ENSEMBLES HOWEVER...THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM ARE VERY SLIM SO LEFT IN ONLY SLGT CHANCE POPS ATTM. DRY HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FOR THUR AND FRI BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...ESP FOR OVERNIGHT MINS. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... /SHORT TERM THROUGH SATURDAY/ PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SW FLOW SUGGS CIGS WILL BE LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR OVERNIGHT. TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS PSBL IN THE VICINITY OF ANY HEAVIER PRECIP THRU SATURDAY. /LONG TERM SUN THROUGH THUR/... AS OF 330 PM FRI...FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUN NIGHT DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER. CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON MON WITH WINDS BECOMING SE TO S. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MON AND TUE WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS ARRIVES TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED AS A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NW. && .MARINE... /SHORT TERM THROUGH SATURDAY/ SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONT FOR ALL BUT ALBEMARLE SOUND TONIGHT GIVEN THE MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG SW WINDS AND SEAS IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE THRU EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS TURN NW/N WITH DECREASING VELOCITY BEHIND SFC FRONT DROPPING THRU THE AREA SAT AFTN. /LONG TERM SUN THROUGH THUR/... AS OF 330 PM FRI...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN THOUGH REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE FOR ALL OF THE WATERS OUTSIDE THE SOUNDS. HIGH PRES WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON MON WITH WINDS SLOWLY VEERING TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE COAST...WINDS WILL BECOME SE AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT ON MON EVENING. WAVES WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...NEARING 5 FEET BY TUE EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS ON TUE NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED...WITH THIS FLOW REGIME REMAINING THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-150. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154- 156-158. && $$