AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
950 PM EST SAT FEB 4 2012


.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...AREA METARS SHOW LIGHT E-ESE SFC WINDS AND MILD TEMPS IN
THE U60S-L70S AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE WRN ATLC
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SEWD. CCAFS WIND PROFILER DATA SHOWS SE-S WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 10KFT.DIVGT FLOW AROUND UPPER HIGH
COUPLED WITH HIGH H50-H20 VALUES CONTINUES TO RESULT IN ABUNDANT CI/
CS EXTENDING FROM THE NW CARIB/SE GOMEX NEWD ACROSS FL. IR SATELLITE
SUGGESTS OPACITY IS LESS THAN 50% LOCALLY. KMLB 88D SHOWS SPRINKLES
OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE ATLC AND THE TREASURE COAST COS...THOUGH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS OFFSHORE.

OVERNIGHT...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY MUCH FROM THE CURRENT FCST. LIGHT
SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO SE-SSE WITH MINS GENERALLY IN THE
L60S NORTH/INLAND...M60S SOUTH/NEAR THE COAST. MADE SMALL TWEAK TO
REDUCE OPACITY OF SKY COVER OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE GRIDS/ZFP ARE FINE.
PROBABLY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG/MIST OVERNIGHT...SRLY FLOW IS
MORE ASCD WITH STRATUS RATHER THAN FOG. CURRENT FCST ONLY HAS MENTION
OF "PATCHES" SO WILL LEAVE THIS ALONE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH CIGS AOA BKN150. OCNL BKN MVFR CIGS
PSBL VRB-SUA MAINLY THROUGH 08Z. COULD SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS IN MIST
09Z-13Z...BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE NORTH/INLAND WHERE SYNOPTIC PGRAD
IS WEAKER.

&&

.MARINE...PLAN TO LET THE CURRENT SCA FOR SEAS EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED
AT 03Z/10PM. SEAS RUNNING CLOSE TO 6-7FT BEYOND 20NM WITH WINDS
DROPPING BELOW 15KT. WILL RUN WITH CAUTIONARY STMT OVER THE 20-60NM
LEGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$