AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1025 AM EST THU MAR 11 2010

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA UNDER A HIGH
SHEAR/LOW CAPE STORM ENVIRONMENT THIS MORNING...DEEP MOISTURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE N WITH KTAE/KJAX SOUNDINGS FULLY SATURATED.
STRONG LOW LVL ENVIRONMENTAL INFLOW WITH SE SFC WINDS GUSTING TO
25-30MPH.

NMRS SHRAS/ISOLD TSRAS OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL CWA AHEAD OF FRONTAL
TROF PUSHING INTO THE WRN GOMEX.  CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
FURTHER THIS AFTN AS STRONG DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR AHEAD OF THE
TROF PUSHES ACRS THE FL PENINSULA.  WIDESPREAD SHRAS AND SCT TSRAS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...RAPID STORM DEVELOPMENT
PSBL.

CHANGES TO THE ZONES MAINLY TO REFRESH WORDING...HWO UPDATE PENDING
AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 11/18Z...PREVAILING CIGS BTWN FL040-050 WITH NMRS MVFR
SHRAS/ISOLD IFR +SHRAS...OCNL SFC WND G25KTS. BTWN 11/18Z-12/06Z...
PREVAILING CIGS BLO FL020 WITH WDSPRD MVFR SHRAS/SCT IFR TSRAS...
OCNL SFC WND G20KTS.  BTWN 12/06Z-12/12Z PREVAILING CIGS BTWN
FL020-030 WITH SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR +SHRAS.

&&

.MARINE...
TIGHT PGRAD OVER THE LCL ATLC AHEAD OF A FRONTAL TROF OVER THE WRN
GOMEX.  SCA CONDITIONS AT ALL LCL BUOYS WITH SRLY WINDS 20-25KTS...
SEAS 4-6FT WITH 5-6SEC PDS.  WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND VEER TO
THE SW OVERNIGHT...THEN TO THE NW BY DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THRU THE PENINSULA.  WDSPRD SHRAS WITH SCT TSRAS THRU FRI.

FPR SCRIPPS BUOY MEASURING 6FT SEAS WITHIN 4NM OF THE COAST...
BUOY009 OVER 7FT.  WITH SUCH POOR PREVAILING CONDITIONS...WILL
EXPAND THE SCA TO INCLUDE ALL NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS AND EXTEND
EXPIRATION TIME THRU 10PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI