AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 353 AM EST WED JAN 7 2009 .DISCUSSION... ...WINDY TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE... ...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TONIGHT... TODAY... A DEEP 500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT QUICKLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SFC AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS WILL REACH 15-20 MPH BY MID MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. STRONG CAA WILL SET IN AS FRONT PASSES WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE WEST WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30 MPH LIKELY. WITH THESE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED HAVE RAISED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA STARTING IN THE MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WITH THIS BOUNDARY WITH CAPE VALUES LESS THAN 300 J/KG AND PW AROUND 1.5". THIS WILL GREATLY INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO WILL ONLY KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER EVEN WITHOUT STORM DEVELOPMENT STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DOWNBURSTS UP TO 40-45 WITH THIS BAND OF SHOWERS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN ENDING AND CLOUD COVER DECREASING OVER THE FAR NORTH. TONIGHT...FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND OVER THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND DECREASE OVERNIGHT TRANSPORTING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR SEEING MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S. THU...H5 TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH OF THE SE ATLC COAST WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TWD S FL. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH PWATS LESS THAN AN HALF AN INCH ARE PROGD. THIS WILL SPELL SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LWR 70S WITH W-WNW WINDS AT 10-15 MPH NRN AREAS AND 10 MPH SRN SECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. THU NGT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TWD FL WITH WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING NW BY MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. FRI...SFC HIGH ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO N FL WILL PUSH OFF THE NC COAST BY EVENING. N/NW FLOW EARLY WILL VEER TO ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S VOLUSIA COAST TO MID 70S SRN INTERIOR. SAT-TUE...HAVE GIVEN A BIT MORE WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED RANGE WITH SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION WITH NEXT COLD FRONT PROGD TO NEAR E CENTRAL FL THIS WEEKEND. PTLY CLDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S EXPECTED SAT THEN INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH FRONT PROGD TO NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY/ SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT FRONT. 00Z GFS MUCH COOLER BY TUE WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR AS MID-UPR LVL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. ECM ALSO INDICATES PUSH OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE WKND FRONT BY TUE...SO WILL TREND FORECAST COOLER... BUT NOT QUITE AS COOL AS THE 00Z GFS WHICH HAS DROPPED TUE TEMPS 5-10 DEG S AND 10-15 DEGS NORTH FROM YDAYS 00Z RUN. && .AVIATION... WIDESPREAD STRATUS CURRENTLY FORMING OVER THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL SW FLOW INCREASES. IFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING WITH INCREASING SFC WINDS INHIBITING FOG FORMATION. SW SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH 25KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BAND OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY AND A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AS FRONT PASSES WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25-30KTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY 00Z TONIGHT AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH SKIES CLEARING. && .MARINE... PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE CWA THIS MORNING AND RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS FRONT NEARS...UP TO 20-25KTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS REACHING UP TO 7 FT OFFSHORE. HAVE INCLUDED NEARSHORE WATERS IN THE SCA THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE STRONGER WINDS. AS FRONT PASSES WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND VEER TO THE WEST BEFORE EVENTUALLY DECREASING AND BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KTS LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. W/NW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE THU NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT PASSES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. GENERALLY GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS FOR FRI/SAT NEAR SHORE THEN INCREASING WINDS SAT NIGHT/SUN AS NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. && .FIRE WEATHER...HAVE RAISED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THU AFTN WITH MIN RHS BETWEEN 27-34 PCT EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FL FOR UP TO 5 HOURS. W WINDS TO 10-15 MPH NORTH AND 10 MPH SRN SECTIONS ON THU. MARGINAL DURATION OF LOW RH MAY OCCUR ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 45 71 47 / 60 10 0 0 MCO 76 47 71 47 / 60 10 0 0 MLB 78 48 71 47 / 50 10 0 0 VRB 78 48 72 46 / 50 10 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA- MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE- OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE. FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE- OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD- SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH LONG TERM....VOLKMER