AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 348 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT-TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERSPREADING EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND PHASING WITH A CONTINENTAL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AS SHOWN BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS THE AREA LATER ON THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SATURDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE NORTH AND BECOME SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL AND SOUTHWESTERLY NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. SOMEWHAT DRIER POCKET OF AIR TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING THE TREASURE COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW 90S BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND DEVELOP THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. THE SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND HERE AND PRODUCE BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY...MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO PUSH BACK TOWARD THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SUNDAY-FRIDAY (PREVIOUS)...MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID-LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SHIFTING FLOW ALOFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST. NO APPRECIABLE DEEP LAYER DRYING IS DEPICTED...THOUGH EXPECT A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING CYCLE OF CONVECTION...WITH POPS TRENDING BACK CLOSER TO CLIMO. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PUSHING OFFSHORE THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE ATLANTIC AND KEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAK AND SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH. THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION...KEPT ALL TERMINALS IN PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT DID INCLUDE A 4 HOUR TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CEILINGS DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND CEILINGS OF AROUND 1000 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... WEEKEND...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE BACK NORTH AND WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY FOR THE MOST PART AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS SATURDAY BEFORE DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE AND 3 TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE WITH DOMINANT PERIODS OF 7 TO 8 SECONDS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OFFSHORE AT NIGHT AND NEAR THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LAND BASED STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPE. MONDAY-TUESDAY (PREVIOUS)...RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST BE SUPPRESSED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...PROVIDING A MAINLY SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS IN THE SOUTH AND 10-15 KNOTS IN THE NORTH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 75 91 75 / 80 50 60 40 MCO 88 74 92 75 / 80 40 50 20 MLB 85 74 90 74 / 70 40 40 30 VRB 85 74 91 75 / 70 40 40 30 LEE 87 75 92 77 / 80 50 50 20 SFB 87 75 92 77 / 80 50 50 30 ORL 88 75 92 78 / 80 40 50 20 FPR 86 74 89 74 / 70 40 40 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$