AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1032 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE SEEN SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...BUT THESE
WILL FILL IN AS DIURNAL HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION OCCUR
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS A TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS
IN PLACE. INVERTED TROUGH OVER EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN
FLORIDA WILL PHASE WITH CONTINENTAL TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...KEEPING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL INCREASE SUSTAINED WINDS TO 10 TO 15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...INHIBITING THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. THEREFORE...EXPECT FLOW TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TODAY GIVEN
PWATS AROUND 2.3 INCHES...HOWEVER FASTER MOTION OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE NORTH WILL DECREASE FLOODING POTENTIAL FROM TRAINING
STORMS.

LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES GIVEN LARGE EXTENT
OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE
WILL SEE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH AREAS SOUTH MAINLY RESIDING IN THE
UPPER 80S. LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST WILL STAY IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...

ALL SITES TO EXPERIENCE PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPO IFR UNTIL EVENING AROUND 22Z AS NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH 3 TO 4 FOOT SEAS
NEARSHORE AND 4 TO 5 FOOT SEAS OFFSHORE. STORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$