AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 413 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF TEXAS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE. YESTERDAYS ISOLATED BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ORIGINATED FROM OUTFLOW GENERATED STORMS FROM A STORM COMPLEX THAT WAS OVER THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS 24 HOURS AGO. THIS MORNINGS COMPLEX WAS ABOUT THE SAME LATITUDE BUT FURTHER WEST OVER MISSOURI. WOULD EXPECT SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOWS CONVERGE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOVE SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. WILL LIKELY BE A FEW STORMS ALREADY ONGOING WITH THE SEA BREEZE BY LATE MORNING OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WILL HAVE THE HIGHER...BUT STILL SCATTERED POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S...A BIT LOWER ON THE COAST. THIS AFTERNOONS WET MICROBURST IS MODERATE. /11 FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER TX/OK...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING WSW TO ENE OVER THE GULF OF MEX GETS SHOVED EAST...TO OVER THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE IS WHERE THINGS GET A BIT MORE COMPLICATED...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO AGAIN GET ABOVE SEASONAL....A DAILY GULF BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND... PROVIDING A TRIGGER FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS... ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HELPING WILL BE A HEAT INDUCED SURFACE LOW INLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH GETTING PUSHED SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BUILD THE PLAINS HIGH A BIT MORE THAN THE NAM...RESULTING IN THE NAM ADVERTISING HIGHER POPS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ENSEMBLES LEAN TOWARDS THE NAM...SO HAVE BLENDED THE GUIDANCE FOR THE FINAL PRODUCT. LOOKING AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...A WEAK CAP IS IN EVIDENCE OVER THE FA...SO FEEL THE ANSWER LIES SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON)WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS/S-RN CA TRANSFORM THE NORTH/SOUTH RUNNING RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS TO AN EAST- WEST RUNNING RIDGE...WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHIFTING IN THE RIDGE ALLOWS THE EAST COAST TROUGH TO SHIFT WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THOUGH GUIDANCE DISAGREES OF HOW MUCH. BY SATURDAY MORN...THE GFS KEEPS THE UPPER WEAKENED FARTHER EAST...WHILST THE ECMWF MODEL HAS IT SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER NORTHEAST. LOOKING AT THE QPF PLACEMENT FROM EACH MODEL PHYSICAL OUTPUT...THIS SHOWS WITH THE ECMWF THE WETTER SOLUTION OVER THE FA...THE GFS THE DRIEST. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO IS ADVERTISING A WETTER FORECAST...SO HAVE AGAIN BLENDED THE SOLUTIONS. THIS MEANS POPS A BIT ABOVE THE OP GFS...AND TEMPS A BIT BELOW FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING AN UPPER SYSTEM DEVELOPING SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY...HELPING TO SHIFT THE UPPER TROUGH MORE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND BY MONDAY...BRINGING THE POPS/TEMPS BACK TO SEASONAL FOR THE FA && .AVIATION...27/12Z...ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE PATCHY FOG EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY WILL BE BRIEF. MAY BE A LOW LYING SMOKE LAYER ALONG THE COAST FROM BALDWIN COUNTY INTO THE PANHANDLE DUE TO ONGOING WILD FIRES. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR OR IFR IN ISOLATED SPOTS WITH ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM...MORE PROBABLE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND JUST INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE. /11 && .MARINE...MARINE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY TODAY THEN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY. WINDS A BIT HIGHER FROM MID MORNING TO EARLY EVENING IN THE BAYS AND NEAR SHORE WATERS...UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WEST ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL WAKEN A BIT BY MID WEEK AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MID WEEK. OFFSHORE WINDS GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY NEAR SHORE. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA GENERALLY WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY UNTIL BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THIS WEEKEND. WINDS A LITTLE STRONGER IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE WITH THE SEA BREEZE. WAVES GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FEET. /11 && .FIRE WEATHER...SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS WILL CREATE A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND VERY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS. A DAILY GULF BREEZE WILL ORGANIZE AND MOVE INLAND BEGINNING AROUND NOONTIME OVER THE COASTAL AREAS. THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FA WILL SEE A GENERALLY SOUTHERN TRANSPORT WIND IN THE MIXING LAYER THROUGH THE WEEK. A WEAK BOUNDARY SAGGING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A SHIFT IN THE MIXING LAYER WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY FRIDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 95 74 93 74 / 20 05 20 30 PENSACOLA 93 76 92 78 / 20 10 20 30 DESTIN 91 78 90 77 / 20 10 20 30 EVERGREEN 97 71 95 73 / 30 10 30 30 WAYNESBORO 97 72 96 72 / 10 05 20 20 CAMDEN 97 72 96 73 / 30 05 30 30 CRESTVIEW 97 70 95 72 / 30 10 30 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$