AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 308 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL MOVE EAST...FLATTENING THE RIDGE BY FRIDAY AND ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO FEED NORTH AND AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING UPPER RIDGE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT ONLY A SLIM CHANCE FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES OF OUR MISSISSIPPI FORECAST AREA. THE BETTER CHANCES OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREA JUST TO THE WEST. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA. /11 .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY...COOL AND A BIT BREEZY EARLY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN HAVING MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. MONDAY`S FORECAST A BIT TRICKY AS FORECAST LOOKS TO BE JUST ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE BETTER MOISTURE AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE H5 LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR A HAIL AND GUSTY WIND THREAT AS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES IN THE AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LOW MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST...EURO IS QUICKER THAN THE GFS IN MOVING THE UPPER LOW OUT BUT EITHER WAY WE SHOULD BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THE FIRST OF THE WEEK WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND. /11 && .MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH LATE FRIDAY...BECOMING MORE WESTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE MARINE AREA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK THEN 3 TO 5 FEET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ALSO WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. 32/EE && .AVIATION...(18Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 09Z WED FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM 09Z THROUGH 13Z THEN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z WED. CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND 1K FT FROM 09Z THROUGH 13Z WED. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 8 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 23Z TODAY BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO AROUND 6 KTS FROM 13Z THROUGH 18Z WED. 32/EE && .FIRE WEATHER...PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INLAND AREAS. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING OVER THE WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SPREAD EAST WITH TIME. BEST CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY BUT HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE ABOVE 35 PERCENT. /11 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 65 90 68 82 / 05 05 10 50 PENSACOLA 68 90 70 84 / 05 05 10 40 DESTIN 70 85 71 82 / 05 05 05 40 EVERGREEN 61 90 64 85 / 05 05 10 50 WAYNESBORO 60 90 65 82 / 05 10 20 60 CAMDEN 63 90 64 83 / 10 05 20 50 CRESTVIEW 61 91 62 89 / 05 05 05 40 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$