AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 955 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2011 .UPDATE...MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION HAS ENDED FOR THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL STORMS REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE MARINE AREA. UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE GULF TO THE SOUTH OF SERN LA WILL ADD SOME DYNAMICS TO THE DIURNAL OFFSHORE CONVECTION... SO STILL EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ZFP OR CWF PRODUCTS. STILL EXPECTING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON FRIDAY...AS TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LOW SITUATED TO OUR SW AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL INCREASE INSTABILITIES AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. 12/DS .PREVIOUS FCST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...DEVELOPING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT MUTED TODAY AS A RESULT OF MID-LEVEL INGREDIENTS PROHIBITING VERTICAL GROWTH. 07/1200 UTC AREA SOUNDINGS AND MODEL POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMER 700 HPA AIR THAN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE THAT WILL LIMIT ANY SEVERE WIND CHANCES IN ANY STORM THAT REMAINS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING GRADUAL WESTWARD SHIFT TO UPPER-LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF LA COAST. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH AND ITS SUBSEQUENT DISPLACEMENT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. DRY AIR AROUND THE BASE OF THIS LOW HAS FIRED UP CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH IN THE EASTERN GULF. THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE UPPER-LOW TO THE WEST WILL MOST LIKELY ALLOW THIS SURFACE TROUGH TO FURTHER ADVANCE NORTHWESTWARD AS WELL. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAND ZONES AS WELL AS ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS AS THIS SURFACE TROUGH EJECTS. WHILE THE SYSTEM ITSELF SEEMS BETTER ORGANIZED...DUE TO THE SHEAR BEING SWEPT ACROSS IT...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. /01 THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE. /10 .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL INCREASE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY FOR ALL INLAND AREAS. SINCE THE GULF REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING HIGH...SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAT AND INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 108 ACROSS MOST AREAS NEXT WEEK. /01 && .AVIATION /07/18Z ISSUANCE/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTIONS BEING IN AND AROUND THE SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS PROWLING THE REGION TODAY AND PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG CREATING SOME LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS. APPEARS THE BRUNT OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY WILL OCCUR NEAR AND ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS EAST AND SOUTH OF IT. /08 JW && .MARINE...VERY LITTLE CHG OVER THE PAST 24HRS AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALG W/SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LRG UPPER LVL LOW PRES SYSTEM OVR THE NRN GULF...INTERACTING WITH A NWWD MOVING EASTERLY WAVE OF SFC LOW PRES OVR THE SE GULF. PER LATEST PRODUCTS BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...UPR LVL ENVIRONMENTAL WIND CONDITIONS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ANY TROPICAL DVLPMT ALG THE SFC TROF AXIS. THE UPPER LOW/TROF IS FCST TO SLIP WWD THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL KEEP THE MARINE AREA IN AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN. IN THE NEAR TERM THRU FRI... XPCT SCT/NUMEROUS TSTMS TO PIVOT WWD ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS/WAVES AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER IN/NEAR TSTMS. THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST...ISO/SCT TSTMS REMAIN IN THE FCST. A CONTD LGT ONSHORE FLOW IS FCST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH AN UPTICK IN AFTN WINDS ALG THE COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY OFFSHORE ALG THE COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LAND BRZ. THE LAND BRZ WILL ALSO CONT TO SERVE AS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR EARLY MORNING TSTM AND WATERSPOUT DVLPMT. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT DVLPMT OF THE E GULF SYSTEM IS XPCTD...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SLGT INCR IN SWELL FRI/SAT. /10 && .FIRE WEATHER...A REMNANT TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL CHANCES. MEANWHILE...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...INCREASING THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND THE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY. ONCE THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH...EXPECT TYPICAL SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY. /01 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 73 94 76 94 / 30 40 30 20 PENSACOLA 77 94 78 94 / 40 50 30 30 DESTIN 78 90 78 91 / 50 50 30 30 EVERGREEN 70 95 74 96 / 20 50 30 30 WAYNESBORO 70 94 73 96 / 20 50 30 20 CAMDEN 70 94 73 95 / 20 50 30 30 CRESTVIEW 70 95 76 96 / 30 50 30 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$