AFDNEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA 
400 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2003

SURFACE ANALYSIS OFF SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS AT DRY AND 
THE LOWEST PRESSURE OF 1014MB DUE WEST OF FORT MYERS...TPC ESTIMATED 
PRESSURE AROUND 1011MB. IN ADDITION...A 1026MB HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER 
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND THE PRESSURE AT THE OFFICE NEAR 1022MB. 
HENCE...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH 
CENTRAL GULF WITH WINDS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. 
UPPER LEVEL CHARTS AT 850 AND 700MB SHOWED AN ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE 
FROM NORTH GEORGIA TO NORTH CENTRAL GULF. NORTHEAST WINDS DESCENDING 
AND DRYING AIR HAVE PREVENTED CONVECTION TODAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS 
CONTINUE TO SHOW TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER THE GULF WITH A WESTWARD 
TRACK. HOWEVER...GFS AND ETA WESTWARD TRACK SOUTH OF 27N. THUS 
GRADIENT WINDS WILL LIKELY EXTEND MORE INLAND WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS 
AS FAR NORTH AS NEW ORLEANS. AS ADVERTISED...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE 
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE MID SOUTH AND ACT AS RUDDER TO 
GUIDE...MAINTAIN AND PUSH THE TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WESTWARD. WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES LATE 
FRIDAY NIGHT. 

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REVERTS BACK TO A TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A 
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CONUS LATE SATURDAY. VORT MAX AT THE TOP OF THE 
RIDGE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND DIG THE TROUGH FROM NORTHEAST CONUS TO 
NORTHEAST GULF. MOISTURE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST TO 
NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE SAT AND SUN. WILL MAINTAIN 
NEAR CLIMO POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK. 
ASSOCIATED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST 
AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  

HERE ARE SOME NUMBERS TO PONDER...

MCB BB 071/093 075/092 075 18032
    TBBBB 092/076 094/075 093/074 092/074 092 4252313233/
BTR BB 072/092 075/092 076 18032
    TBBBB 092/077 094/076 093/075 092/075 092 4252313231/
MSY EB 078/090 077/091 076 18143
    TBBBB 092/077 093/076 093/075 092/075 090 4252313231/
GPT BB 077/089 079/088 078 18143
    TBBBB 089/079 090/078 090/077 089/077 089 4252313231/

.NEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVSY PASCAGOULA TO ATCHATFALAYA...EXCLUDING 
LAKES.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

$$

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