AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 145 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND THEN OFFSHORE BY MONDAY EVENING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND STALLS OUT NEAR THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 520Z UPDATE...SFC TROF IS SE OF LI. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER KBFD WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARDS THE REGION THRU THE MRNG. LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE COLDEST OUTLYING SUBURBS TO THE UPPER 60S IN NYC. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE ON MONDAY. THE HIGH THEN RETREATS OFFSHORE BY LATE AFT/EARLY EVE...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUE MORNING. A THERMAL TROF SETS UP IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT NYC AND POINTS EAST. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST. THE AREA WILL CAPPED WITH NO CONVECTION FORECAST. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN ON MON WITH HIGH IN THE LOWER 80S...WHICH ONCE AGAIN WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. A SOUTHERLY FLOW MON NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY BRING IN A MORE MOIST AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR STRATUS...BUT WITH WATERS JUST SOUTH OF LI IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...THIS IS DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY. SHOULD THE TRAJECTORY OF THE WINDS BE MORE SELY...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AND MAY WORK IN FROM THE EAST. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME IS TO LEAVE IT OUT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OVER THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...00Z ECMWF CLOSES THE LOW OFF SOONER AND IS A LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. TIMING FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE FRONT CLEARING THE EASTERN ZONES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAIN ENERGY MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO NEW ENGLAND. WILL SEE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL BE IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS TUESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA AND LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV/GFS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY WINDS DURING WEDNESDAY...AND FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN LEANED TOWARD THE MAV/GFS GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAYS HIGHS. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LEANED TOWARD THE HPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME BLEND OF THE ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD. RIDGE MOVES OFF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SUNDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH WILL NOT BE WET THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG AT OUTLYING TERMINALS (KISP/KHPN/KSWF) TOWARDS MORNING...VFR THROUGH 06Z TUE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT SE OF LI WITH SKC DEVELOPING. LIGHT WINDS (NW BECOMING N) THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN. TIMED FOR 15Z AT CT TERMINALS AND BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z AT NYC/LI TERMINALS. EXPECT SOUND BREEZE TO DEVELOP AT KLGA THIS MORNING...TIMING MAY BE OFF A FEW HOURS. OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... MON NIGHT-TUE MORNING...PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR. TUE AFTN/NIGHT...POSSIBLE SUB-VFR IN SHRA/TSRA. WED-FRI...CHANCE SUB-VFR EARLY AM WED...OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... WITH A RELATIVELY LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SMALL CRAFT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE FORECAST WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WAVE WATCH SEAS TOO LOW IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUE AND RAISED ABOUT A FOOT OR SO. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE WAS REASONABLE. && .HYDROLOGY... WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DW