AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 744 AM EDT MON APR 18 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA. THAT LOW/S COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO END THE WEEK. ANOTHER WARM AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... COLD FRONT PASSING SOUTH ACROSS NYC AND LI AS OF 07Z WITH ISOLATED SHRA. EXPECT ALL PCPN TO BE OVER BEFORE SUNRISE AS FRONT PRESSES SOUTH OF THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL VORT/CLOSED LOW SEEN OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC IS LIFTING OUT QUICKLY LEAVING A ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WEAKENS. WEAK WESTERLY FLOW AT SFC THIS MORNING BACKS TO SOUTHERLY THIS AFTN. PSEUDO SEA BREEZE ENHANCES FLOW AT COAST WITH AFFECT ON TEMPS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH MODEST 1000-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC...WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE TO LIFT OVER THE WARM FRONT...AND THICKNESS GRADIENTS WILL BE TIGHTER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...MAXING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST SPOTS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AFOREMENTIONED TIGHT THICKNESS GRADIENT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT...AS WEAK OVERRUNNING FLOW LEADS TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. KEPT THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIFTED INDICES ARE NOT CONDUCIVE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S. A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE ADVANCES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...AS WELL AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS. THE DETAILS ASIDE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN DUE TO DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FROPA...CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A DEPARTING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TREK EASTWARD ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. THIS HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDS OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER PAC STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND...FIRST IMPACTING THE AREA WITH OVERRUNNING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN...WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION...WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT...SHIFTING SW LATER THIS MORNING. ALONG THE COAST SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL BE LIKELY AFTER 16Z. GUSTS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AT KJFK. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SHOWERS THIS EVENING. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS...BUT CIGS MAY LOWER CLOSE TO MVFR... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310. SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 16-17Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310. SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310. SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...TURNING SW AT 5-10 KT LATE THIS MORNING. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT NW WINDS...TURNING W LATE THIS MORNING...THEN SW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT NW WINDS...TURNING W LATE THIS MORNING...THEN SW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS/LLWS POSSIBLE. THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THURSDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. FRIDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... WINDS OVER ALL WATERS HAVE DROPPED TO BELOW SCA LEVELS...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT ATTM. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL SHORT OF SCA LEVELS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK. WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR OCEAN FACING WATERS...DUE TO RESIDUAL WAVE ENERGY AND DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST FETCH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL LIKELY EXTEND A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS BEYOND THE CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE AREA WATERS ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. && .HYDROLOGY... LOCAL HAS RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE. RAMAPO FCST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AROUND 12Z. NEXT PCPN EVENT FOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EXPECTED ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH MOST PCPN OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS WHERE AROUND A QUARTER INCH MAY FALL ON AVERAGE. AS SUCH...LIMITED HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH DUE TO FULL MOON AND SPRING TIDES. BASED ON LATEST SURGE GUIDANCE FROM EXTRATROPICAL MODEL...STEVENS INST AND STONY BROOK UNIVERSITY...CONSENSUS IS THAT TIDES REMAIN BELOW MINOR BENCHMARKS. SUBSEQUENT SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS TIDES DON`T NEED MUCH THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS INTO TUESDAY AS WELL AS WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350- 353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JST