AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST FRI JUL 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE WEST OF PUERTO RICO INTERACTING WITH
WEAK UPPER TROUGH NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO. DRIER WEATHER IN STORE
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST SURFACE WIND
FLOW BEHIND IN WAKE OF WAVE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER AN ACTIVE MORNING ACROSS THE USVI MOST OF THE
CONVECTION DIED OUT AND ONLY UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN. TROPICAL
WAVE HAS MOVED WEST OF PR BUT WEAK UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO. UPDATED PARTS OF THE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. LATEST GFS BRINGS DRIER WEATHER FOR LOCAL AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH PW VALUES PER GFS DOWN TO 1.7 FOR BOTH USVI
AND PUERTO RICO ALTHOUGH OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN WATERS PW
VALUES REMAIN HIGH. WOULD EXPECT NORMAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH LATE SATURDAY PW VALUES INCREASE AGAIN
MAINLY ACROSS THE USVI AND ON MONDAY ACROSS EAST PUERTO RICO.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST
TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 09/16Z. AFTER 09/16Z MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE WITH MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE TJMZ AND TJBQ IN TSRA. OVERNIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND MAINLY EASTERLY. AFT
09/12Z...SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS FROM THE EAST.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  89  78  89 /  50  50  30  30
STT  78  89  80  89 /  50  40  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$