AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
143 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AXIS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE STATE WILL HELP SUPPORT THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT. WEST OF THE STATE...A WEAK LOW
WHICH HAS DEVELOPED ON THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF AREA WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH TOMORROW HELPING TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED ALONG AND JUST BELOW THE
FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW AS THE BOUNDARY
DIPS SOUTHWARD. BY WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING THE FRONT TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM NEAR AL/MS STARTS TO PUSH TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST.

FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THUNDERSTORMS START TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE BUT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...MAINLY
FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. NAM SOLUTION TONIGHT WANTS TO PUSH THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE HILLSBOROUGH/POLK LINE BUT
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS LOOK THE KEEP IT FURTHER NORTH. NUDGED
POPS OVERNIGHT TO 40/50 PERCENT. KEPT THE LARGEST RAINFALL TOTALS
NORTH OF TAMPA. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE AGAIN TOMORROW... COULD SEE
SOME CONVECTION RE-FIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INCREASED POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK TO THE
NORTH AND HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES LEAVING THE CWA...SHOWERS SHOULD
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE REGION. AREAS NORTH OF
TAMPA BAY MAY SEE THE GREATEST COVERAGE AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS
THROUGH THE NATURE COAST.

DAILY HIGHS WILL START TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY BY TOMORROW AS PRECIP
AND CLOUD COVER BECOMES LESS.

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)... MODELS HAVE
PRETTY MUCH COME IN LINE DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND INDICATE
SIMILAR SCENARIOS WITH JUST SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. TO
END THE WEEK AND THEN OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OVER THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A COOL FRONT WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT LEADING TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN DURING FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
HIGHS AND WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR LOWS...THEN NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.