AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
928 AM EST FRI MAR 12 2010

...PLENTY OF RAIN AND SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...WIDE SPREAD RAIN REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN EXPECTED HAZARD
WILL BE RAIN...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS COULD ALSO DEVELOP AS A
SFC LOW OVER THE SE GULF WATERS MIGRATES TO THE NE AND ACROSS THE
STATE LATER TODAY. AN UPPER LVL JET STREAM IS ALSO IN PLACE RIGHT
ABOVE THE GULF/FL REGION. SPC STILL KEEPING THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND
SOUTHWARD UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY. WIND VERTICAL PROFILE FROM 12Z TBW SOUNDING DEPICTS A
LESSER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...BUT THE WIND VERTICAL PROFILE COULD
STILL SUPPORT SOME TORNADIC ACTIVITY TODAY AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

AT 9AM EST DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
RUSKIN WAS SHOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING JUST TO
THE WEST OF PINELLAS COUNTY...AND SLOWLY PUSHING ITS WAY INLAND.
ELSEWHERE...CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WITH
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT NORTH-TO-SOUTH IN THE EVENING
HOURS.

.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GULF WATERS SOUTH OF AL AND A FRONT FROM
YESTERDAY`S LOW ACROSS NORTHERN FL. THE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE NNE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH MORE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER THE
AREA AND THE SUB-TROPICAL JET MOVING IN OVER THE STATE. ALL THIS
WILL COMBINE TO KEEP THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND AGAIN ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AGAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING FINALLY CLEARING THE RAIN OUT
OF THE AREA. HAVE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING IN PLACE
FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE AREA FROM THE GULF SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 70S EACH DAY WITH LOWS COOLING FROM THE
UPPER 40S-UPPER 50S TONIGHT...TO THE MID 40S-MID 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOME
LOCAL IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A LOW WILL RACE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING OFFSHORE AND REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OFFSHORE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FRO THE SOUTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS...AND WILL BE
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OFFSHORE WATERS FROM EARLY TONIGHT AND UNTIL
SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS BY SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...22/AR
SHORT TERM...24/COLSON
AVIATION...69/CLOSE