AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 203 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)...THE 12Z TBW SOUNDING CAME IN VERY DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH ONLY 1.56 PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A K-INDEX OF 17. INITIAL CLOUD GROWTH EARLY TODAY WILL LIKELY STALL AS DRIER AIR ALOFT IS TAPPED AND MIXED TOWARD THE SURFACE. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ALONG A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PINNED NEAR THE COAST. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFF SHORE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES THROUGH. 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 19 CELSIUS ALONG WITH A DELAYED SEA BREEZE WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S...WITH SOME NEAR-RECORD UPPER 90S POSSIBLE IN PLACES AS WELL. A SIMILAR DAY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD MAKE IT A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND. EXPANDED THE 30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE BIT TO THE EAST BUT STAYED WITH 20 PERCENT WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST. BY SUNDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SETTLES ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE PULLS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THE 850MB TEMPERATURES COME DOWN A BIT...BUT STILL EXPECT A GENERALLY HOT DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)... UPPER RIDGE DOME HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. EMBEDDED VORT MAXES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW AS WEAK SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AXIS MEANDERS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCREASE BY TUESDAY IN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR HIGH END SCATTERED DIURNAL POPS ON SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION... HAVE DEPICTED VCTS AND CB IN THE TAFS FOR THE AFTERNOON MAINLY AFTER 20Z WHEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 20Z AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BECOME EAST AND DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 30/01Z TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. && .MARINE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SLIDING SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS BUT STRONGER AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES NEAR THE COAST. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS MOSTLY 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES NEXT FEW DAYS. && .CLIMATE...LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW INLAND LOCATIONS TO REACH 97 OR 98 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN ASTERISK /*/ DENOTES LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES. RECORD HIGHS: TODAY SATURDAY SUNDAY LOCATION 07/29 07/30 07/31 TPA 97/1993 96/1961* 96/1958 SPG 95/2009* 96/2009 96/1961* LAL 98/1993* 99/1993 97/2010* SRQ 96/1998* 96/1998* 97/1927 FMY 98/1942 97/1942 97/1982 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 94 79 94 / 20 30 20 40 FMY 77 95 77 94 / 20 30 20 40 GIF 75 96 76 95 / 10 20 20 30 SRQ 76 94 77 93 / 20 30 20 40 BKV 72 94 73 94 / 20 30 20 40 SPG 82 93 82 93 / 20 30 20 40 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$