CWFSJU), Marine Weather Message (MWWSJU) and the Coastal Hazard Message (CFWSJU) and Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU) issued by WFO SAn JUAN PR for the most up to date info. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Prevailing VFR...but Ocnl SHRA/-SHRA will affect the flying area most local terminals except for TJPS through the forecast period steered by the moderate to locally fresh northeasterly winds. SCT-BKN lyrs nr FL022...FL050...FL080. SFC wnd to range btw 5 and 10 kt overnight. SFC winds will continue from the NE-ENE around 15 kt with gusts between 20-25 kt aft 02/14z. Expect winds to range between 5 and 10 kt overnight. && /From previous discussion issued at 400 PM AST Mon Apr 1 2024/ .SYNOPSIS... A northerly swell is promoting hazardous marine and coastal conditions. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for the northern coastline of Puerto Rico, from Rincon to Fajardo, Culebra, and St. Thomas through later this afternoon. A High Risk of Rip Currents is in effect through at least tomorrow night, for the aforementioned areas. This swell will continue to promote seas between 6 and 8 feet across the Atlantic Waters and Caribbean Passages where several Small Craft Advisories are in effect. Variable weather weather conditions are expected to continue for the rest of the afternoon into Tuesday morning as a moist airmass continue to move into the local area. Stable and calm weather conditions will likely return on Wednesday with the arrival of a drier airmass. A warming trend is anticipated for the latter part of the week as wind flow turn from the southeast. && .SHORT TERM... Tonight through Wednesday... The increase of precipitable water values due to the arrival of moist air this afternoon will continue to bring passing windward shower along northern and northeastern areas as a broad surface ridge in the western Atlantic supports NE wind. Excessive rainfall, particularly leading to ponding of water on roads and poorly drained areas is possible with consecutive shower activity. Additionally, there is the possibility for limited wind threat as sustained wind speeds are expected to peak in the 15-20 mph range, with higher gusts primarily affecting coastal areas of the local islands. The forecast for Tuesday suggests a similar weather pattern, featuring normal moisture levels and breezy wind capable of producing conditions for shower development. Stable and calm weather conditions will likely return on Wednesday with the arrival of a drier-than-normal airmass delivered by the flow generated by the aforementioned surface ridge. This will displace the remnants of the cold front from the area, causing precipitable water values to drop. Also at this time, a mid-to-upper level trough will migrate away from the area, leading to rapidly increasing mid-level temperatures which will reduce the chance of thunderstorms. Due to all of this the likelihood of shower activity is expected to diminish on Wednesday and winds will begin to veer, becoming east-south as the surface high moves more into the central Atlantic which will cause a slight warming trend on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday... ./FROM PREV DISCUSSION...Issued at 539 AM AST Mon Apr 01 2024/ A broad high pressure, now building over the west and central Atlantic, will continue to extend further to the central Atlantic, resulting in veering winds, becoming more from the east-southeast from the beginning of the long-term period through the weekend. Consequently, expect a warming trend across the islands and an increase in tropical moisture. Currently, we are forecasting temperatures to range in the upper 70s to 80s along the higher terrains and in the mid to upper 80s and localized areas along the coast, reaching the lower 90s. With this weather pattern, the citizens and visitors of the islands could experience heat indices around 100 - 102 degrees Fahrenheit, mainly during the end of the week. The latest precipitable water (PW) model suggests the PW content reaching around normal climatological levels for this time of the year, meaning an increase in shower activity. This will drive a pattern of passing windward showers across eastern Puerto Rico and the USVI, followed by afternoon convection mainly across the interior to the western section of PR. Still, accumulations should not be too significant as the upper level will remain stable with dry air and an upper-level ridge in place. By early next week, additional moisture from an approaching cold front should merge with the present moisture and support better rain chances. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Occasional SHRA/-SHRA will affect local terminals through the forecast period. SHRA may impact JPS thru 01/22z, leaving SKC btwn 01/23z-0216z. Winds will continue from the N-NNE at around 15-20 kt with gusts between 20-30 kt, especially tomorrow after 02/13z. Expect winds to range between 5 and 15 kt overnight (btwn 01/23z- 02/13z). && .MARINE... A northerly swell will continue to promote seas between 6 and 8 feet across the Atlantic Waters and Caribbean Passages through early Tuesday. A surface high pressure building across the west and central Atlantic will maintain moderate to locally fresh east to northeast winds through tonight. Frontal moisture remnants interacting with an upper level trough will maintain the potential for shower development across the regional waters. Both the general public and mariners should closely monitor the forecast marine conditions. && .BEACH FORECAST... A High Surf Advisory for the northern coastline of Puerto Rico, from Rincon to Fajardo, Culebra, St. Thomas and St. John is in effect through this afternoon due to breaking waves up to 11 feet. A High Risk of Rip Currents is in effect through at least late tomorrow night, for the aforementioned beaches as well as for the northern USVI. Beachgoers, residents, and visitors are urged to avoid the western, northern, and eastern coastal areas. The risk of rip currents across the southern coastal areas of Puerto Rico will remain low to moderate. Rip currents that can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water where it becomes difficult to return to safety. High waves that can wash over jetties and sweep people and pets onto jagged rocks. Rough surf may also knock you down. Minor beach erosion and localized coastal flooding may occur due to high surf. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-012. High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST Tuesday for PRZ010. VI...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM AST Tuesday for VIZ001. AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Tuesday for AMZ711. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Tuesday morning for AMZ712-716-723-741-742. && $$