FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WONT41 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIADSAAT. ALTHOUGH THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN SEEMS TO FALL INTO SEEMS TO FALL INTO THE "NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND GULF OF MEXICO" IN ACTUALITY...THIS DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS BEING GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM ALMA...CENTERED INLAND OVER EXTREME WESTERN NICARAGUA ABOUT 80 MILES NORTHWEST OF MANAGUA. THIS PLACES THE STORM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...THEREFORE FOUND UNDER "TWOEP" ...FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT ZNS EXCEPT FOR EXTENSION OF ALL MASS FIELDS TO DAY SEVEN. PHILO...NWS LEAD MET && .PREV DISCUSSION...THE BASIC LOGIC FOR THE NEW FORECAST WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH. H5 RIDGING WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER TEXAS IN THE SHORT TERM. SOME FLATTENING WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS WEEKEND HOWEVER...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO ELONGATE ALONG AN EAST TO WEST AXIS. AS A RESULT OF THIS STABLE PATTERN...THE LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY PERSISTENT. IN OTHER WORDS...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS...DAILY SUNSHINE... AND LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THE NORM. THE BIGGEST VARIABILITY MAY BE THE SEA BREEZE...WHICH HAS BECOME A MORE REGULAR...YET NOT QUITE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED...DAILY EVENT. LOOKING FARTHER OUT IN TIME...AFTER THIS WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TO THE EAST OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS THE CENTER OF THE H5 RIDGE SLIPS SLOWLY WEST TOWARD NORTHWEST MEXICO...OPENING UP MUCH OF THE GULF TO TROPICAL ACTIVITY. THE H5 RIDGE WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST ACTIVITY OUT OF THE WEST GULF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK HOWEVER. SEE THE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MENTION OF POTENTIAL MOISTURE FROM ALMA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE H5 RIDGE THAT SHIFTED TO OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL START TO BREAK DOWN AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN H5 S/W TROUGH WILL DIG OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PICK UP A CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE NEW...DEEPER H5 S/W TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARD THE END OF THE PRESENT MODEL CYCLE NEXT WEEKEND. CHANGES TO THE GRID PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED. PERSISTENCE AND A SLOWLY EVOLVING PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF CURRENT CONDITIONS. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 845 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2008...FOG NOW LIFTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ADDED MARINE AND AVIATION SECTIONS BELOW. WILL NEED TO BUMP UP CLOUD COVER TODAY FOR DEVELOPING CU. WILL ALSO MENTION FOG FOR TONIGHT. DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 800 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2008...PATCHY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING. A LOW LEVEL SURFACE BASED INVERSION UNDER RADIATIONAL COOLING WAS THE CULPRIT FOR THE FOG THIS MORNING. THE MORNING SOUNDING AT BRO SHOWS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND ALL THE WAY UP...SUGGESTING THAT A SUMMERTIME TROPICAL REGIME IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED. PWAT IS RATHER LOW AT 1.14 INCHES... SO WILL LEAVE SUNNY WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SOME BUILDUP OFFSHORE MAY HINT AT MORE SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MONITOR BEFORE THE MORNING UPDATE. UPDATE FOR MARINE AND AVIATION TO FOLLOW. && .MARINE...AT 7 PM BUOY 20 REPORTED EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 12 KNOTS AND SEAS AT 3 FEET WITH A 6 SECOND PERIOD. A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE OCCURRING AT THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS. CLOUDINESS MAY INCREASE NEAR SUNRISE OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA REDUCING CEILINGS TO MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW 073 091 076 091 077 092 / 000 000 000 000 000 000 BROWNSVILLE 072 093 075 093 076 093 / 000 000 000 000 000 000 FALFURRIAS 069 095 071 096 073 095 / 000 000 000 000 000 000 HARLINGEN 071 094 073 095 075 096 / 000 000 000 000 000 000 HEBBRONVILLE 070 099 072 096 074 096 / 000 000 000 000 000 000 MCALLEN 073 097 075 097 077 098 / 000 000 000 000 000 000 PORT ISABEL 075 090 077 090 078 090 / 000 000 000 000 000 000 RIO GRANDE CITY 073 102 075 100 076 100 / 000 000 000 000 000 000 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 076 088 078 088 079 089 / 000 000 000 000 000 000 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 58/64/MARTINEZ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE