FFABOX. NO FLOODING REPORTS ATTM. LSR UPDATES FOR WIND RELATED INFORMATION CONTINUE ISSUANCE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EXPIRED. WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES. 940 AM: WE HAVE ISOLATED REPORTS OF 46-51 MPH GUSTS AT NON ASOS SITES AND ISOLATED LIMBS AND TREES DOWN...MAINLY ESSEX COUNTY 632AM THRU NOW. NO FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE YET. STILL EVALUATING. URBAN SMALL STREAM PROBABLY WILL COVER BUT STILL EVALUATING. 900 AM: SKYWARN COORDINATOR IS IN THE OFFICE AND SO FAR NO REPORTS. FRANCISTOWN NH HAD 1.5 INCHES LAST NIGHT. NO OTHER SNOW REPORTS ATTM. ASHFIELD MA HAD 0.3 INCHES AND WORTHINGTON 0.1 INCHES. SMALL STREAM FLOODING...MONITORING THE SMALL STREAMS IN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTY AS WELL AS ABERJONA IN WINCHESTER FOR POTENTIAL BANKFUL APPROACHES DURING MIDDAY. 810 AM: CONSIDERING FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE FOR RI AND SE MASS WHERE FLOOD GUIDANCE LOWEST...ESP BRISTOL...PLYMOUTH COUNTIES MASS AND KENT PVD COUNTIES IN RI. URBAN SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY HOLDS FOR NOW. RADAR ESTIMATES ARE OVERALL UNDERESTIMATING IN KEY REGION OF RI AND SE MASS. NARROW BANDS OF .5 TO .9 PER HOUR ARE DEVELOPING NORTHWARD. BELOW FROM EARLIER MORNING SHIFT. HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS PWAT PLUME NEAR 1.0 INCHES COMBINES WITH STRONG LEVEL JET. CONTINUED THE ENHANCE WORDING OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN FFG IS 3 TO 4 INCHES IN 3-6 HRS AND THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR THE MOMENT. FARTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS CT/WESTERN MA INTO SW NH LESS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. OTHER CONCERN TODAY ARE STRONG WINDS. PRES FALL MAX CENTER HAS ALREADY SHIFTED INTO NORTHEAST MA AT 09Z. THIS HAS YIELDED A WIND SHIFT LINE ACROSS MUCH OF RI /WEST OF NARR BAY/ WHERE WINDS HAVE BECOME SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISHED TO ABOUT 10 KT AT WST/BID/UUU AND MTP. THEREFORE...HAVE DROPPED WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THIS AREA. FARTHER TO THE EAST INTO MA WINDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG WITH SPEEDS HOVERING AROUND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THEREFORE HAVE LEFT PREVIOUS WIND ADVISORIES FOR MA UP. HOWEVER...00Z MODELS HAVE SHIFTED LOW LEVEL JET FARTHER EASTWARD AND THIS IS CONFIRMED VIA LATEST PRES FALLS. THEREFORE...DOWNGRADED HIGH WIND WATCH TO AN ADVISORY. NEXT SHIFT MAY HAVE TO TRIM WESTERN PORTION FURTHER...AS STRONGEST WIND FIELDS AND GREATEST PRES FALLS/LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ARE CONFINED TO EASTERN MA /ESP THE COASTLINE/. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... TONIGHT...COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS...OTHERWISE DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN EACH DAY WITH DIURNAL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS WEDNESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. SCATTERED WET SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOW WILL SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EITHER LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. NOTED SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS VERSUS THE SLOWER CANADIAN GGEM MODEL. OVERALL SPED UP TIMING OF ARRIVAL BY SEVERAL HOURS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH. NOTED THE DEEPER UKMET AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT BY MONDAY. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED AND KEEPS THE AREA COOL AND DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THIS AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH EMBEDDED IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE DAY. THE STEADY SHIELD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXITING THE NORTH SHORE...BUT WE CAN STILL EXPECT 25 TO 30 KNOT SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG THE COAST. TONIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SOMETIME THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE WET GROUND AND RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS...AREAS OF GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. DID NOT INSERT INTO THE 18Z TAFS BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMOUNT OF SCATTERED CLOUDS THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WE MAY INCLUDE THIS IN THE 00Z ISSUANCE FOR THE BDL/BAF/MHT SITES. WEDNESDAY...VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR BROKEN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. COLD AIR ALOFT AND LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A BROKEN DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500 AND 4000 FEET. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THU...VFR. FRIDAY...VFR...THEN MVFR LATE WITH DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS. SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS EARLY...PERHAPS FREEZING PRECIPITATION WELL INLAND. OTHERWISE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH COLD FROPA AND WINDSHIFT TO WEST. && .MARINE... TODAY... GALES MOST WATERS...EXCEPT SCA RI WATERS AND NARR BAY. STW MERRIMACK RIVER SOUTH TO PROVINCETOWN. WIND SHIFT TO WSW THIS AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE. TONIGHT...LEFTOVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. WIND GUSTS TO 25 OR 30 KT DURING THE EVENING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LEFTOVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS DUE TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... BOS REACHED 11.3 FT AT 930 AM WITH 10-13 FT SEAS. REPORTS OF MINOR C FLOODING OVERSPLASH IN MARBLEHEAD ARD 945 AM. PVD FOX POINT STORM TIDE THIS MORNING WAS 5.4 FT AT 7AM WITH ULTIMATELY A 0.7 FT SURGE AFTER AN EARLIER MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE 2 FT SURGE NEAR 1AM IN THE LOWER PART OF THE TIDE CYCLE. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ005>007- 014>016-018-019. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ005>007- 013>024. NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ012. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ012. RI...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230>234-254- 255. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235>237. STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG/NOCERA/STRAUSS