LSRAKQ)... AS WELL AS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE
(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WAKEFIELD) FOR MORE INFORMATION.

NEAR TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
PLEASANT EVE AHEAD AS HIGH PRS REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH FRNTL BNDRY
STALLED IVOF MASON-DIXON LINE. TSCTNS / SFC OBS SHOW ENUF HIGH/MID
LVL MSTR ARND FOR PT CLDY SKIES. LOWS 50-55.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOLLOWED A NAM/SREF SOLN WRT FRNTL BNDRY MOVMNTS THIS FCST PACKAGE.
QUASI-STATIONARY/WARM FRNTL BNDRY PROGGED TO MEANDER ALNG OR JUST
S OF THE MASON DIXON LINE THRU TUE NITE. QSTN OF HOW FAR S THIS
BNDRY GETS AS TO WHETHER IT REACHES THE LWR MD ERN SHORE OR NOT.
FEELING IS THAT IT WILL STAY JUST N OF AKQ FA. SOME MSTR NOTED
WITH THIS BNDRY AS IT APPRCHS THE ARE A LATE TUE AFTRN/EVE.
THUS...KEPT LOW CHC DIURNAL POPS IVOF MD ERN SHORE INTO TUE EVE.
OTW...DRY WITH SKIES AVGG PT SUNNY. H85 TMPS SPRT HIGHS 80-85 W
OF BAY...70S CSTL AREAS. LOWS TUE NITE M50S- L60S.

A MORE SGNFCNT S/W DIVES SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE GRT
LAKES WED. LTST DATA SUGGESTS BULK OF UPR SUPPORT WELL OFF TO OUR
N. MAIN TRIGGER FOR PCPN WILL BE THE ACTUAL CDFRNT...PRIMARILY WED
EVENG/ERLY THU AM.

SNDGS STILL SHOWING SOME INCSRG SHALLOW LOW LVL MSTR ERLY WED AM
SO KEPT CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE TO PTLY-MCLDY CATEGORY ARND SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE..STRONG LOW LVL SW FLOW LOOKS TO BRING A VERY WARM AND
BREEZY DAY TO ALL AREAS WED. H85 TMPS BTWN 16-17C ALONG WITH SOME
PRE FRNTL WRMG SHUD LEAD HIGHS IN THE M-U80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
(GIVEN THE AM CLDNS QUICKLY ERODES)...LWR 80S INTERIOR ERN SHORE /
70S IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE ERN SHORE. INSTAB STARTS TO INCRS WED
AFTN...SFC BASED CAPES ARND 2000 J/KG WITH LI`S FALLING BLO ZERO...
PROBABLY A BIT OVERDONE DUE TO SFC DEW PTS IN THE 60S (MIXING WILL
LIKELY DROP THEM INTO THE M-U50S IN THE AFTN). EXPECT SKIES TO AVG
OUT PTLY-MSTLY SUNNY WED FROM LATE MRNG THRU MID AFTN...W/ INCSRG
CLOUDS LATE...AND A CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS BY LATE AFTN IN THE WEST...
AND BY ERLY EVENG FARTHER E (STRG SSW FLOW LOOKS TO INHIBIT STORM
DEVELOPMENT WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT). KEPT POPS AT 30-40% AS UPR
SUPPORT WEAKENS DUE TO MAIN S/W TRACKING THROUGH THE GRT LAKES.
ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT IS GNLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR SVR WX...SHEAR
LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK & UNIDIRECTIONAL (SW). SPC CONTS TO OUTLOOK AREA
IN A "SEE TEXT".

GOING WITH THE BNDRY MOVG S INTO CAROLINAS WITH HIGH BLDG IN FROM
THE N THU. GFS KEEPS MSTR ACROSS SRN MOST CNTYS THRU MOST OF THE DAY
BUT HAVE ELECTED TO ONLY HAVE SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS NC CNTYS DRNG
AM HRS. DRYER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE N WITH A DECREASE IN CLDNS
(PT TO M SUNNY) ACROSS NERN CNTYS. COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE M60S N
TO L70S S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST AND A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. UPPER
RIDGING BEGINS TO EXPAND FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A
TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHING THE COLD FRONT BACK
TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND MAINTAINING LOW-LEVEL EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR
THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD RATHER THAN INCREASING AS THE BEST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. MAXIMA FRIDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S FOR THE EASTERN SHORE...TO
NEAR 70 IN THE SW COUNTIES...BUT HIGHS COULD BE COOLER...ESPECIALLY
INLAND DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. AN UPPER RIDGE
THEN REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE IN HOW FAR NORTH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY SETTLES. THE GFS SUGGESTS UNSETTLED
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY NORTH...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CMC SUGGEST
PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS. AT THIS POINT CHANCE POPS WILL BE FORECAST
NORTH...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH A BACKDOOR FRONT COULD
BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE EASTERN SHORE LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
HENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH AT LEAST THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S
INLAND...WITH COOLER READING FOR THE EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST TUE THROUGH WED WITH A BREEZY/GUSTY SW
WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CHANCE FOR LWR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
SHWRS/TSTMS LATE WED/ERLY THURS.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
SURGE TONIGHT WILL BRING MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE BAY AND
PUSH SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT. THE WIND OVER THE
BAY...AND SEAS TO THE NORTH RETURN TO MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER A LULL LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HENCE
THE CURRENT SCA FLAGS WILL ONLY BE FOR TONIGHT AT THIS POINT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND THEN
CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY AND TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST FRIDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WRNG CONTS ON JAMES RIVER AT RICHMOND WESTHAM AND THE CITY
LOCKS. SEE WBCFLSAKQ FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR