PNSHGX) WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING
CONCERNING THE POTENTIALLY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES RECORDED ACROSS
THE AREA SO FAR TODAY.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013/

DISCUSSION...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST PACKAGE THIS MORNING.
WARM...HUMID & BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS OR SO IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST.

THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD GENERATE A LARGE AREA
OF SHRA/TSTMS STRETCHING FROM ROUGHLY THE GREAT LAKES INTO S TX
TUE AFTN. PRIMARY CONCERN HERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LATE IN THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS AS THE
FRONT MOVES THRU SE TX.

OVERALL...CONDITIONS LOOK SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AND THERE LOOKS TO BE
JUST A REALLY NARROW WINDOW OF TIME FOR CONDITIONS TO FAVOR SEVERE
WX IN OUR CWA. STRONG LLVL JET AND BETTER MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE
IT`LL SHIFT EWD INTO LA 3-9 HOURS AHEAD OF THE MAIN DYNAMICS & SFC
FRONT. BOTH NAM12 & GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPPING BETWEEN 4-10K
FT...BUT IS FCST TO JUST BARELY BE OVERCOME AT SOME LOCATIONS (NE
PARTS). AREA STILL LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED IN THE FAVORABLE RRQ OF
THE JET. WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE WORDING AS IS IN THE HWO...AS
CONFIDENCE ISN`T HIGH ENOUGH TO EITHER ENHANCE OR DOWNPLAY WORDING
JUST YET. (ATTM...AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE CAP AND WINDS BECOMING
SW ALOFT PRIOR TO MAIN DYNAMICS THOUGH WHICH WOULD BE A NEGATIVE).
FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD FOR ANY SEVERE WX WOULD PROBABLY BE 4-8PM
NORTH AND 6-10PM SOUTH.

SHOULD SEE RAPID CLEARING AND COOLER WX IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WHICH SHOULD PERSIST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. MAY
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE WX CONDITIONS ON WED WITH LOW RH`S AND
BREEZY WINDS FCST.  47

MARINE...
MODERATE/STRONG WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS STILL IN THE SCEC
CATEGORY BUT NOT MUCH ELSE HAPPENING OVER THE REST OF THE MARINE
AREAS IN THE UPPER TX COAST SO FAR THIS MORNING. WE MAY SEE SOME
CHANGES LATER IN THE AFTN AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER IN RE-
SPONSE TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEEPENING OUT WEST. HAVE ALSO RE-
MOVED THE MENTION OF SEA FOG FOR THE BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS AS WE
HAVE BEEN OVER FORECASTING ITS OCCURRENCE SO FAR THIS WEEKEND. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS STILL LIKELY FOR WEDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
STRONG COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY BY WEDS EVE
INTO THU MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. EXTENDED
GUIDANCE REMAINS A BIT IFFY WITH THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT...WHICH IS TENATIVELY PROGGED FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
41

AVIATION...
WILL LIKELY STICK WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS
AROUND SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE BY THE AFTN. A REPEAT OF
THIS SAME PATTERN SHOULD OCCUR ONCE AGAIN TUES MORNING AS STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS/WAA HELP KEEP FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY. WILL ALSO BE
INCLUDING VCSH/-RA TO THE MORNING TIME PERIODS AS WELL. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT STILL SLATED FOR FROPA TO THE COAST AOA 06Z WEDS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      68  80  45  66  39 /  20  50  60   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  80  50  68  39 /  20  30  60   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  74  55  66  47 /  20  30  60   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$