SPSMHX) INTO THE EVE AND MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A
A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY OVERNGT. SEE LATEST AIR QUALITY ALERT
(AQAMHX) FOR DETAILS ON AIR QUALITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTN CONVECTION ON THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE COAST PUSHES FARTHER OUT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. HAVE SOLID 30-40% POPS FOR INLAND AREAS AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH INLAND THERMAL TROF TO GENERATE STORMS.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH
HEAT INDICES AGAIN AROUND 100F.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...EXPECT INLAND TROUGHING TO CONTINUE WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE INTO FRI. SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION
LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED STRONG/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. BREEZY DAY EXPECTED FOR FRI AS
PGRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN HIGH OFFSHORE AND APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC SAT...THEN STALL AND
LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTHWARD SUN/MON THEN STALL THROUGH THE DELMARVA
INTO THE MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK
IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO SCT
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD NEAR CLIMO WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY
LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
/SHORT TERM THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERNMOST TAF SITES WITH VARIABLE
VSBYS CONDITIONS OVRNGT DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF SMOKE BLOWING
THRU THE AREA AT ANY ONE TIME. MVFR TO TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT EWN/OAJ WITH POSSIBLE TEMPO MVFR VSBY AT ISO/PGV.

SMOKE MAY CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC THRU MUCH OF THU MORN BEFORE
LIFTING AND DISPERSING WITH INCREASED MIXING. MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED
BY THURSDAY AFTN OUTSIDE ANY SCT CONVECTION.

/LONG TERM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EASTERN NC SAT THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCT CONVECTION LIKELY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...GENERALLY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN WHICH CIGS/VSBYS MAY
BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR. PREDOMINATE S/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
/SHORT TERM TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
SW WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE THRU THIS EVE AS PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ALONG THE COAST. HAVE PUSHED BACK THE ONSET OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN
THE LATER MODEL TRENDS FOR BUILDING SEAS. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL
STRONG SW WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FT WILL CONT OVER SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS THRU THURSDAY.

/LONG TERM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...CHALLENGING MARINE FORECAST THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THU NIGHT INTO FRI BTWN HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-25KT WITH SEAS LIKELY BUILDING TO 5-7FT. HAVE
EXTENDED SCA SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THROUGH 12Z FRI FOR MAINLY
SEAS. WAVEWATCH CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO 6-7FT SEAS THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON EXTENDING AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. SCA MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR PAMLICO SOUND AS WELL. WINDS
WILL LIKELY DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR FRI MORNING THEN SURGE AGAIN FRI
NIGHT TO 15-25KT WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLY CONTINUING...BUT
AGAIN HAVE HELD OFF EXTENDING SCA AT THIS TIME. EXPECT WINDS TO
AGAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISH SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PREDOMINATELY
S/SW 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC