TCDAT1 1 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 500 PM AST SUN NOV 07 2010 SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND MODEL ANALYSES INDICATE THAT TOMAS HAS ACQUIRED FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOW WRAPPING INTO THE INNER-CORE REGION... AND ANY LINGERING DEEP CLOUDINESS APPEARS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THEREFORE...TOMAS IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 1500 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 45-50 KT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...AND THAT IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY. STEADY WEAKENING OF THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/3. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/2100Z 26.1N 69.1W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12HR VT 08/0600Z 26.3N 67.9W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24HR VT 08/1800Z 26.8N 65.6W 30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36HR VT 09/0600Z 28.4N 62.8W 25 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48HR VT 09/1800Z 30.6N 60.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72HR VT 10/1800Z 37.0N 56.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96HR VT 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN TCPAT1 1 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 500 PM AST SUN NOV 07 2010 ...TOMAS LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... TCDAT2 1 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172010 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 10 2010 RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF FRONTAL CLOUD BANDS AND ALSO INDICATES THAT COOL DRY AIR HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF OTTO AND INTO THE CENTER. THE REMAINING CONVECTION IS NOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER AND AMSU TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE HAS WEAKENED. BASED ON ALL OF THIS...OTTO IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE... AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT...AND SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY AS OTTO MOVES AWAY FROM THE BEST BAROCLINIC DYNAMICS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF STRENGTHEN OTTO A LITTLE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COULD BE A LITTLE LOW ON DAYS 4 AND 5. OTTO IS RACING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING POST-TROPICAL OTTO ESCAPING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH AND TURNING EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN 48 HOURS AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER LOW CENTERED OVER THE IBERIAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE DEEP-LAYER LOW MOVES EAST...LEAVING OTTO BEHIND TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS ...UKMET...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS. FUTURE INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL OTTO CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC...AND BY METEO-FRANCE UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 37.3N 41.1W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12HR VT 11/0000Z 40.0N 35.6W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24HR VT 11/1200Z 42.6N 29.7W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36HR VT 12/0000Z 43.0N 26.3W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48HR VT 12/1200Z 41.5N 24.1W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72HR VT 13/1200Z 37.0N 22.0W 35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96HR VT 14/1200Z 36.0N 20.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120HR VT 15/1200Z 37.0N 19.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN TCDAT3 1 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010 SATELLITE IMAGES...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA INDICATE THAT PAULA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. THE CENTER IS NO LONGER WELL DEFINED AND MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS VANISHED. THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON PAULA. TCDAT4 1 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 1000 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010 RICHARD LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IS NOW A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER WATER...THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PROHIBIT REGENERATION. THE LOW IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 KT ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE. THIS MOTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON RICHARD. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF RICHARD...THE LOW...NOT THE FORECASTER...CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1500Z 20.4N 93.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 27/0000Z 21.6N 93.8W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24HR VT 27/1200Z 23.2N 94.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36HR VT 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH TCDAT5 1 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010 500 PM AST SAT OCT 30 2010 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT IS NOW INTERACTING WITH SHARY AND THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS SUGGEST THAT CYCLONE HAS TRANSITIONED TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. BASED ON THESE DATA...SHARY IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS STORM FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THE POST-TROPICAL STORM IS RACING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 42 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CYCLONE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE FRONT WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 39.2N 50.9W 60 KT 12HR VT 31/0600Z 42.8N 44.2W 55 KT...DISSIPATED 24HR VT 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI DSAAT 1 DSAAT SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1130 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008 A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT... AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA... HONDURAS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA TCUAT 1 TCUAT1 HURRICANE TOMAS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 715 PM AST SAT NOV 06 2010 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT TOMAS HAS REGAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH... SHORTLY BEFORE 700 PM AST...2300 UTC...A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN TOMAS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...MAKING TOMAS A HURRICANE AGAIN. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 800 PM AST...0000 UTC. TCUAT 2 TCUAT2 HURRICANE EARL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 830 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010 ...EARL ATTAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH... DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT EARL HAS BECOME A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMIM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH...120 KM/HR. TCUAT 3 TCUAT3 HURRICANE KARL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 1200 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010 ...KARL MAKES LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST OF MEXICO... MEXICAN RADAR OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO ABOUT 10 MILES...15 KM...NORTH OF VERACRUZ MEXICO NEAR 1130 AM CDT...1630 UTC. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 115 MPH...185 KM/HR. SUMMARY OF 1130 AM CDT...1630 UTC...INFORMATION -------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 96.2W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...29.82 INCHES $$ FORECASTER BEVEN TCUAT 4 TCUAT4 HURRICANE RICHARD TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 805 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010 ...RICHARD MAKES LANDFALL IN BELIZE... RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE INDICATE THAT THE EYE OF HURRICANE RICHARD MADE LANDFALL AROUND 745 PM CDT...0045 UTC...ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE ABOUT 20 MILES...35 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BELIZE CITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 MPH...150 KM/HR. TCUAT 5 TCUAT5 TROPICAL STORM HERMINE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010 840 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010 AFDTAE 1 +nbsp;AFDTAE+nbsp;| +nbsp;AFDJAX+nbsp;| +nbsp;AFDMFL+nbsp;| +nbsp;AFDMLB+nbsp;| +nbsp;AFDKEY+nbsp;| +nbsp;AFDTBW+nbsp;| AFDMLB 1 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 830 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 .DISCUSSION...QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. THE RAIN BAND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND OVER THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD SEE THIS RAIN BAND WEAKEN AS GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF JET ALOFT AND DISTURBANCES IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW SHIFT EASTWARD. HAVE RAIN CHANCES AT 30% OVER NRN LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTY INCREASING TO 70% FROM ORLAND0 SOUTHWARD THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MENTIONED AFTER. MAY CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH THE EVENING IN THIS RAIN BAND SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED AS WELL. RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PRODUCED WIDESPREAD PRECIP TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES BEING REPORTED BY RADAR ESTIMATES IN OSCEOLA COUNTY. AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH WILL BE LIKELY FROM THIS RAIN BAND FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THIS EVENING...LIMITED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH RH VALUES OVERNIGHT... PRODUCING LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFDMFL 1 AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 754 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 .AVIATION...AN ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS JUST PUSHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH AT LEAST ONE MORE STORM MAY IMPACT KFLL AND KOPF OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF...MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WE OPTED TO CARRY JUST VCSH FOR NOW. AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS, COMBINED WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. ++ .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011/ ..CHANCE OF NEEDED RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEK ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA... DISCUSSION... A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ALLOWING FOR THE STEERING FLOW OVER THE CWA TO REMAIN IN A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION...AND KEEP THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...PLAN ON KEEPING A CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE CWA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS ALSO UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SEA BREEZES AND LAKE BREEZE COLLIDE. SO WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF THUNDER FOR THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO IS ALSO FORECAST BY THE SHORT RANGE MODELS TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT...HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE COULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. SO WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER REST OF THE CWA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IF THE SKIES REMAIN MORE CLEAR AND THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STAYS MORE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. SO AT THIS TIME HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG WORDING TO THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS ZONES FOR LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL LET THE EVENING CREW LOOK MORE CLOSELY AT THE FOG POTENTIAL FOR LATE TONIGHT. THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CWA ON TUESDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT WASHES OUT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO BE MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. SO WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF POPS ALONG WITH THE THUNDER WORDING OVER THE CWA FOR TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE KEYS MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK ALLOWING FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE CWA. SO THE POPS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED RANGE WITH THE HIGHS POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS. EXTENDED FORECAST... THE HIGH WILL THEN GET PUSH EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS WEEK...AS ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EASTWARD AND INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY END OF THIS WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER AROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THAT THERE COULD BE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET COMING THROUGH THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST MODEL RUNS FOR THE POSSIBLE OF STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY AND FINE TUNE THE DETAILS AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT FOR NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. MARINE... THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY BEFORE SWINGING BACK EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE SPEEDS WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. SO BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. FIRE WEATHER... THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE. SO NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FIRE WEATHER AT THIS TIME OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ++ .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 68 86 71 86 / 70 40 20 30 FORT LAUDERDALE 71 86 73 86 / 50 30 20 30 MIAMI 71 87 72 87 / 40 30 20 30 NAPLES 69 86 70 86 / 30 30 20 30 ++ .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. ++ $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE...14/MJB AVIATION/RADAR/FIRE...04/AT AFDJAX 1 AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 234 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES ON TUE BEFORE MORE TSTMS RETURN WED AND THU... .SYNOPSIS...FLOW HAS BECOME MORE SW ALOFT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EVIDENT ON H2O IMAGERY OVER THE E AND W GOMEX. TSTMS CONTINUE TO FIRE OVER THE E GOMEX...BUT THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER LAND AREAS AND MOST TSTMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE W CENTRAL PENINSULA OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SFC COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY STOPPED NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR. TEMPS AT 2 PM RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE N TO THE LOWER 70S OVER PORTIONS OF THE S. .SHORT TERM...FRONT MAY SAG A BIT MORE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF TEMPS...BUT LEANED VERY HEAVILY TOWARD THE COOLER NAM GUIDANCE AS IT APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THE FRONTAL POSITION BETTER. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...GRADUALLY SHIFT MODEL BLEND BACK TO 50/50 WITH THE GFS GUIDANCE. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE OVER THE SE ZONES OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS ALSO ALONG THE E COAST NEAR AND N OF THE SFC FRONT. SMOKE FROM SE GA FIRES SHOULD PROPAGATE TOWARD THE SW THRU TUE BEFORE SPREADING MORE NE BY WED. TUE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN PRECIP AS SFC FRONT MAKES ITS FARTHEST PROGRESSION S. HAVE LEFT 30% POPS NEAR AND S OF FRONT OVER THE EXTREME S WITH 20% POPS ELSEWHERE. DUE TO CLOUDINESS AND WEDGE OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY COOL OVER THE N 2/3 OF THE AREA. MUCH BETTER RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TO RETURN AREA-WIDE ON WED AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS UPSTREAM AND DRAGS STALLED FRONT BACK TO THE N. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. .LONG TERM...ANOTHER SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. THE GFS IS DEPICTING A 50 KT 850MB JET WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH 3+ ENERGY HELICITY INDEX VALUES OVER N CENTRAL FL. MODELS INDICATE CLEARING CONDITIONS FINALLY BY THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. ++ .AVIATION...COLD FRONT JUST BETWEEN CRG AND VQQ WILL DRIFT SOUTH TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO NE AT VQQ AND THEN GNV AROUND 00Z. TEMPO TSRA AT GNV TILL 22Z WITH VCSH TIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL LOWER TO IFR AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ++ .MARINE...NE SURGE BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE WINDS IN SCEC RANGE OFFSHORE NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY WITH HEADLINES POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ++ .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 45 65 57 77 / 10 20 30 70 SSI 50 63 60 75 / 40 20 20 70 JAX 53 67 59 79 / 40 20 20 70 SGJ 59 68 63 78 / 50 20 20 70 GNV 58 73 61 81 / 30 20 20 70 OCF 61 78 63 83 / 40 30 20 70 ++ .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. ++ $$ CARROLL/ZIBURA/WALKER AFDTBW 1 AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 143 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AXIS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE STATE WILL HELP SUPPORT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT. WEST OF THE STATE...A WEAK LOW WHICH HAS DEVELOPED ON THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF AREA WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH TOMORROW HELPING TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED ALONG AND JUST BELOW THE FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW AS THE BOUNDARY DIPS SOUTHWARD. BY WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING THE FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM NEAR AL/MS STARTS TO PUSH TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THUNDERSTORMS START TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE BUT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...MAINLY FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. NAM SOLUTION TONIGHT WANTS TO PUSH THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE HILLSBOROUGH/POLK LINE BUT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS LOOK THE KEEP IT FURTHER NORTH. NUDGED POPS OVERNIGHT TO 40/50 PERCENT. KEPT THE LARGEST RAINFALL TOTALS NORTH OF TAMPA. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE AGAIN TOMORROW... COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION RE-FIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE INTERIOR. FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AND HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES LEAVING THE CWA...SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE REGION. AREAS NORTH OF TAMPA BAY MAY SEE THE GREATEST COVERAGE AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS THROUGH THE NATURE COAST. DAILY HIGHS WILL START TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY BY TOMORROW AS PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER BECOMES LESS. .PREVIOUS LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)... MODELS HAVE PRETTY MUCH COME IN LINE DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND INDICATE SIMILAR SCENARIOS WITH JUST SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. TO END THE WEEK AND THEN OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OVER THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A COOL FRONT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN DURING FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR LOWS...THEN NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HWOJAX 1 +nbsp;HWOJAX+nbsp;| +nbsp;HWOMFL+nbsp;| +nbsp;HWOMLB+nbsp;| +nbsp;HWOKEY+nbsp;| HWOMLB 1 HWOMLB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 547 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141- 144-147-290500- COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD- OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA- SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD- 547 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. ...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... NUMEROUS SHOWERS SOME CONTAINING OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL MOVE EAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE FOUR CORRIDOR. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORM WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...LOWER VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH. ...FLOOD IMPACT... RAIN SOAKED GROUND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL ACCUMULATE PONDING OF WATER IN LOW SPOTS AND ON SOME ROADWAYS THIS EVENING. STANDING WATER ISSUES WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...MAINLY THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. ...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT... AS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS MOVE ACROSS INLAND BODIES OF WATER AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC COAST A FEW WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DEADLY CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. RAINFALL NETWORK OBSERVERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT DAILY RAIN TOTALS EXCEEDING TWO INCHES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE. $$ PENDERGRAST TWOAT 1 TWOAT SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 350 PM EST TUE DEC 21 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST WEST OF BARBADOS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL AND WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TOMORROW. THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED ON THIS DISTURBANCE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART AFDILM 1 +nbsp;AFDILM+nbsp;| +nbsp;AFDMHX+nbsp;| AFDMHX 1 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 840 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. ++ .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 830 PM MONDAY...SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE OUTER BANKS. THESE CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSE TO FREEZING AND WILL CONTINUE FREEZE WARNING WITH FROST ADVISORY CLOSER TO THE COAST. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST OTHER THAN ADJUSTING THE SKY COVER. ++ .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... A NICE ALBEIT COOL DAY SETTING UP FROM TUESDAY BRINGING A BRIEF RESPITE TO THE RECENT SPELL OF DAMP WEATHER. WEAK SFC HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE COAST TOMORROW SO THIS LACK OF RETURN FLOW AND ONLY WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION KEEPS HIGHS BLO NORMAL (MAINLY M-U50S COAST TO LOW 60S INLAND)...BUT WILL FEEL GOOD (WITH SOME DECENT SUNSHINE) AFTER SEVERAL OF WELL BLO NORMAL READINGS. ++ .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 4 PM MON...NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP WILL WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST PASSING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING TO CATEGORICAL FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. TAPERED OFF POPS TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING. KEPT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT NOT TOO MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WENT NO HIGHER THAN 40% POPS. ONLY KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHEAST AREAS SATURDAY MORNING. FINALLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESURE OVER THE GULF STATES SUNDAY MOVING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY. ++ .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 830 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE BRIEF BOUTS OF MVFR FOG TOWARD MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/ MAINLY VFR GOING INTO THIS EVE AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE WITH CLEARING MOVING IN FROM THE NW. WITH CLEARING SKIES LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND...PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. VFR/GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER ANY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF TUESDAY. LONG TERM/TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/ AS OF 4 PM MON...POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOW VISIBILITIES + CEILINGS. PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY UNSETTLED WITH A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY...THEN A WEAK FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 30-60% EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN WIDESPREAD RAIN...80% CHANCE...IS EXPECTED. ++ .MARINE... AS OF 835 PM MONDAY...WITH WINDS HAVING DIMINISHED AND MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THIS CONTINUING...HAVE OPTED TO DROP SCA FOR ALL WATERS. UPDATED CWF ALREADY SENT OUT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM/THROUGH TUESDAY/ MARGINAL SCAS FOR PAMLICO AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE GOING INTO THE EVE. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE DECREASING OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES WELL OF THE NC COAST AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. STILL A BIT CHOPPY IN MODERATE NE FLOW EARLY TUE BUT BOATING CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATER ON AS WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING TUE AFTN. LONG TERM/TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/ AS OF 4 PM MON...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD WITH A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. FOR THE MOST PART WENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AS IT IS CLOSEST TO THE HPC SURFACE GRAPHICS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. FLOW WILL BECOME OFFSHORE BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP SEAS UNDER 6 FEET. ++ .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ029- 044>046-079>081-090>094-098. FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ047-095- 103. MARINE...NONE. ++ $$ SYNOPSIS...BTC NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...BTC LONG TERM...HSA AVIATION...CTC/BTC/HSA MARINE...CTC/BTC/HSA NPWILM 1 +nbsp;NPWILM+nbsp;| +nbsp;NPWMHX+nbsp;| NPWMHX 1 NPWMHX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 303 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT... .SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AWAY FROM THE COAST. WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THE FREEZING MARK CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S. NCZ029-044>046-079>081-090>094-098-291300- /O.UPG.KMHX.FZ.A.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KMHX.FZ.W.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-GREENE-BEAUFORT-MAINLAND HYDE- DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-ONSLOW- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILLIAMSTON...ROBERSONVILLE... GREENVILLE...PLYMOUTH...COLUMBIA...SNOW HILL...HOOKERTON... WASHINGTON...RIVER ROAD...WALLACE...WARSAW...ROSE HILL... KENANSVILLE...BEULAVILLE...MAGNOLIA...KINSTON...MAYSVILLE... POLLOCKSVILLE...TRENTON...NEW BERN...HAVELOCK...VANCEBORO... ORIENTAL...ALLIANCE...BAYBORO...ARAPAHOE...MINNESOTT BEACH... VANDEMERE...STONEWALL...JACKSONVILLE 303 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 200 AM THROUGH 900 AM TUESDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. * HAZARDS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL POSE A THREAT TO TENDER PLANTS AND VEGETATION. * TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO 28 TO 32 DEGREES...COLDEST IN SHELTERED RURAL AREAS. * TIMING...THE MAIN TIME OF CONCERN WILL BE BETWEEN 200 AM AND 900 AM. * IMPACTS...TENDER PLANTS AND VEGETATION SHOULD BE PROTECTED FROM THE COLD. IN ADDITION...A WIDESPREAD FROST WILL OCCUR. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION. ++ $$ NCZ047-095-291300- /O.UPG.KMHX.FZ.A.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KMHX.FR.Y.0001.110329T0800Z-110329T1300Z/ MAINLAND DARE-CARTERET- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOREHEAD CITY...BEAUFORT... EMERALD ISLE...NEWPORT 303 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CARTERET AND MAINLAND DARE COUNTIES IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. * HAZARDS...FROST WILL POSE A THREAT TO TENDER PLANTS AND VEGETATION. * TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. * TIMING...THE MAIN TIME OF CONCERN WILL BE BETWEEN 4 AM AND 9 AM. * IMPACTS...TENDER PLANTS AND VEGETATION SHOULD BE PROTECTED FROM THE COLD. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. ++ $$ NCZ103-291300- /O.NEW.KMHX.FR.Y.0001.110329T0800Z-110329T1300Z/ OUTER BANKS DARE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KILL DEVIL HILLS...KITTY HAWK... NAGS HEAD...SOUTHERN SHORES 303 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. * LOCATIONS...A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUTER BANKS DARE COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. * HAZARDS...FROST WILL POSE A THREAT TO TENDER PLANTS AND VEGETATION. * TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. * TIMING...THE MAIN TIME OF CONCERN WILL BE BETWEEN 4 AM AND 9 AM. * IMPACTS...TENDER PLANTS AND VEGETATION SHOULD BE PROTECTED FROM THE COLD. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. ++ $$ NPWMHX 2 NPWMHX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 303 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT... .SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AWAY FROM THE COAST. WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THE FREEZING MARK CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S. NCZ029-044>046-079>081-090>094-098-291300- /O.UPG.KMHX.FZ.A.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KMHX.FZ.W.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-GREENE-BEAUFORT-MAINLAND HYDE- DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-ONSLOW- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILLIAMSTON...ROBERSONVILLE... GREENVILLE...PLYMOUTH...COLUMBIA...SNOW HILL...HOOKERTON... WASHINGTON...RIVER ROAD...WALLACE...WARSAW...ROSE HILL... KENANSVILLE...BEULAVILLE...MAGNOLIA...KINSTON...MAYSVILLE... POLLOCKSVILLE...TRENTON...NEW BERN...HAVELOCK...VANCEBORO... ORIENTAL...ALLIANCE...BAYBORO...ARAPAHOE...MINNESOTT BEACH... VANDEMERE...STONEWALL...JACKSONVILLE 303 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 200 AM THROUGH 900 AM TUESDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. * HAZARDS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL POSE A THREAT TO TENDER PLANTS AND VEGETATION. * TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO 28 TO 32 DEGREES...COLDEST IN SHELTERED RURAL AREAS. * TIMING...THE MAIN TIME OF CONCERN WILL BE BETWEEN 200 AM AND 900 AM. * IMPACTS...TENDER PLANTS AND VEGETATION SHOULD BE PROTECTED FROM THE COLD. IN ADDITION...A WIDESPREAD FROST WILL OCCUR. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION. ++ $$ NCZ047-095-291300- /O.UPG.KMHX.FZ.A.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KMHX.FR.Y.0001.110329T0800Z-110329T1300Z/ MAINLAND DARE-CARTERET- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOREHEAD CITY...BEAUFORT... EMERALD ISLE...NEWPORT 303 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CARTERET AND MAINLAND DARE COUNTIES IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. * HAZARDS...FROST WILL POSE A THREAT TO TENDER PLANTS AND VEGETATION. * TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. * TIMING...THE MAIN TIME OF CONCERN WILL BE BETWEEN 4 AM AND 9 AM. * IMPACTS...TENDER PLANTS AND VEGETATION SHOULD BE PROTECTED FROM THE COLD. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. ++ $$ NCZ103-291300- /O.NEW.KMHX.FR.Y.0001.110329T0800Z-110329T1300Z/ OUTER BANKS DARE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KILL DEVIL HILLS...KITTY HAWK... NAGS HEAD...SOUTHERN SHORES 303 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. * LOCATIONS...A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUTER BANKS DARE COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. * HAZARDS...FROST WILL POSE A THREAT TO TENDER PLANTS AND VEGETATION. * TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. * TIMING...THE MAIN TIME OF CONCERN WILL BE BETWEEN 4 AM AND 9 AM. * IMPACTS...TENDER PLANTS AND VEGETATION SHOULD BE PROTECTED FROM THE COLD. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. ++ $$ NPWMHX 3 NPWMHX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 303 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT... .SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AWAY FROM THE COAST. WINDS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THE FREEZING MARK CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S. NCZ029-044>046-079>081-090>094-098-291300- /O.UPG.KMHX.FZ.A.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KMHX.FZ.W.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-GREENE-BEAUFORT-MAINLAND HYDE- DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-ONSLOW- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILLIAMSTON...ROBERSONVILLE... GREENVILLE...PLYMOUTH...COLUMBIA...SNOW HILL...HOOKERTON... WASHINGTON...RIVER ROAD...WALLACE...WARSAW...ROSE HILL... KENANSVILLE...BEULAVILLE...MAGNOLIA...KINSTON...MAYSVILLE... POLLOCKSVILLE...TRENTON...NEW BERN...HAVELOCK...VANCEBORO... ORIENTAL...ALLIANCE...BAYBORO...ARAPAHOE...MINNESOTT BEACH... VANDEMERE...STONEWALL...JACKSONVILLE 303 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 200 AM THROUGH 900 AM TUESDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. * HAZARDS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL POSE A THREAT TO TENDER PLANTS AND VEGETATION. * TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO 28 TO 32 DEGREES...COLDEST IN SHELTERED RURAL AREAS. * TIMING...THE MAIN TIME OF CONCERN WILL BE BETWEEN 200 AM AND 900 AM. * IMPACTS...TENDER PLANTS AND VEGETATION SHOULD BE PROTECTED FROM THE COLD. IN ADDITION...A WIDESPREAD FROST WILL OCCUR. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION. ++ $$ NCZ047-095-291300- /O.UPG.KMHX.FZ.A.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KMHX.FR.Y.0001.110329T0800Z-110329T1300Z/ MAINLAND DARE-CARTERET- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOREHEAD CITY...BEAUFORT... EMERALD ISLE...NEWPORT 303 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CARTERET AND MAINLAND DARE COUNTIES IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. * HAZARDS...FROST WILL POSE A THREAT TO TENDER PLANTS AND VEGETATION. * TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. * TIMING...THE MAIN TIME OF CONCERN WILL BE BETWEEN 4 AM AND 9 AM. * IMPACTS...TENDER PLANTS AND VEGETATION SHOULD BE PROTECTED FROM THE COLD. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. ++ $$ NCZ103-291300- /O.NEW.KMHX.FR.Y.0001.110329T0800Z-110329T1300Z/ OUTER BANKS DARE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KILL DEVIL HILLS...KITTY HAWK... NAGS HEAD...SOUTHERN SHORES 303 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. * LOCATIONS...A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUTER BANKS DARE COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. * HAZARDS...FROST WILL POSE A THREAT TO TENDER PLANTS AND VEGETATION. * TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. * TIMING...THE MAIN TIME OF CONCERN WILL BE BETWEEN 4 AM AND 9 AM. * IMPACTS...TENDER PLANTS AND VEGETATION SHOULD BE PROTECTED FROM THE COLD. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. ++ $$ NPWILM 2 NPWILM URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT... NCZ097-100-290400- /O.UPG.KILM.FZ.A.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KILM.FZ.W.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ PENDER-BRUNSWICK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURGAW...SURF CITY...LELAND...SHALLOTTE 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TEMPERATURE...27 TO 32 DEGREES INLAND. THE COLDEST READINGS WILL OCCUR IN POCOSIN AREAS WITH ORGANIC MUCK SOILS. LOW TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE BEACHES WILL REMAIN 33 TO 37 DEGREES. * IMPACTS...FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION. TROPICAL PATIO PLANTS ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES. MOST GARDEN OR FIELD CROPS CAN BE DAMAGED BY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS CAN KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION UNLESS PROTECTIVE ACTIONS ARE TAKEN. ++ $$ NCZ087-096-099-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-290400- /O.UPG.KILM.FZ.A.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KILM.FZ.W.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE- MARION- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUMBERTON...ELIZABETHTOWN... WHITEVILLE...BENNETTSVILLE...DARLINGTON...DILLON...FLORENCE... MARION 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TEMPERATURE...30 TO 32 DEGREES. * IMPACTS...FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION. TROPICAL PATIO PLANTS ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES. MOST GARDEN OR FIELD CROPS CAN BE DAMAGED BY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS CAN KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION UNLESS PROTECTIVE ACTIONS ARE TAKEN. ++ $$ SCZ034-290400- /O.UPG.KILM.FZ.A.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KILM.FZ.W.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ HORRY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CONWAY...MYRTLE BEACH 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TEMPERATURE...32 DEGREES INLAND TO 37 DEGREES AT THE BEACHES. * IMPACTS...FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION. TROPICAL PATIO PLANTS ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES. MOST GARDEN OR FIELD CROPS CAN BE DAMAGED BY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS CAN KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION UNLESS PROTECTIVE ACTIONS ARE TAKEN. ++ $$ NCZ101-290400- /O.NEW.KILM.FR.Y.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ NEW HANOVER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. * TEMPERATURE...33 TO 37 DEGREES...WARMEST NEAR THE BEACHES. * IMPACTS...FROST CAN DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION. TROPICAL PATIO PLANTS ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. ++ $$ TRA NPWILM 3 NPWILM URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT... NCZ097-100-290400- /O.UPG.KILM.FZ.A.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KILM.FZ.W.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ PENDER-BRUNSWICK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURGAW...SURF CITY...LELAND...SHALLOTTE 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TEMPERATURE...27 TO 32 DEGREES INLAND. THE COLDEST READINGS WILL OCCUR IN POCOSIN AREAS WITH ORGANIC MUCK SOILS. LOW TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE BEACHES WILL REMAIN 33 TO 37 DEGREES. * IMPACTS...FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION. TROPICAL PATIO PLANTS ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES. MOST GARDEN OR FIELD CROPS CAN BE DAMAGED BY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS CAN KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION UNLESS PROTECTIVE ACTIONS ARE TAKEN. ++ $$ NCZ087-096-099-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-290400- /O.UPG.KILM.FZ.A.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KILM.FZ.W.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE- MARION- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUMBERTON...ELIZABETHTOWN... WHITEVILLE...BENNETTSVILLE...DARLINGTON...DILLON...FLORENCE... MARION 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TEMPERATURE...30 TO 32 DEGREES. * IMPACTS...FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION. TROPICAL PATIO PLANTS ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES. MOST GARDEN OR FIELD CROPS CAN BE DAMAGED BY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS CAN KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION UNLESS PROTECTIVE ACTIONS ARE TAKEN. ++ $$ SCZ034-290400- /O.UPG.KILM.FZ.A.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KILM.FZ.W.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ HORRY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CONWAY...MYRTLE BEACH 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TEMPERATURE...32 DEGREES INLAND TO 37 DEGREES AT THE BEACHES. * IMPACTS...FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION. TROPICAL PATIO PLANTS ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES. MOST GARDEN OR FIELD CROPS CAN BE DAMAGED BY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS CAN KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION UNLESS PROTECTIVE ACTIONS ARE TAKEN. ++ $$ NCZ101-290400- /O.NEW.KILM.FR.Y.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ NEW HANOVER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. * TEMPERATURE...33 TO 37 DEGREES...WARMEST NEAR THE BEACHES. * IMPACTS...FROST CAN DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION. TROPICAL PATIO PLANTS ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. ++ $$ TRA NPWILM 4 NPWILM URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT... NCZ097-100-290400- /O.UPG.KILM.FZ.A.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KILM.FZ.W.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ PENDER-BRUNSWICK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURGAW...SURF CITY...LELAND...SHALLOTTE 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TEMPERATURE...27 TO 32 DEGREES INLAND. THE COLDEST READINGS WILL OCCUR IN POCOSIN AREAS WITH ORGANIC MUCK SOILS. LOW TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE BEACHES WILL REMAIN 33 TO 37 DEGREES. * IMPACTS...FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION. TROPICAL PATIO PLANTS ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES. MOST GARDEN OR FIELD CROPS CAN BE DAMAGED BY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS CAN KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION UNLESS PROTECTIVE ACTIONS ARE TAKEN. ++ $$ NCZ087-096-099-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-290400- /O.UPG.KILM.FZ.A.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KILM.FZ.W.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE- MARION- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUMBERTON...ELIZABETHTOWN... WHITEVILLE...BENNETTSVILLE...DARLINGTON...DILLON...FLORENCE... MARION 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TEMPERATURE...30 TO 32 DEGREES. * IMPACTS...FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION. TROPICAL PATIO PLANTS ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES. MOST GARDEN OR FIELD CROPS CAN BE DAMAGED BY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS CAN KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION UNLESS PROTECTIVE ACTIONS ARE TAKEN. ++ $$ SCZ034-290400- /O.UPG.KILM.FZ.A.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KILM.FZ.W.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ HORRY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CONWAY...MYRTLE BEACH 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TEMPERATURE...32 DEGREES INLAND TO 37 DEGREES AT THE BEACHES. * IMPACTS...FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION. TROPICAL PATIO PLANTS ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES. MOST GARDEN OR FIELD CROPS CAN BE DAMAGED BY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS CAN KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION UNLESS PROTECTIVE ACTIONS ARE TAKEN. ++ $$ NCZ101-290400- /O.NEW.KILM.FR.Y.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ NEW HANOVER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. * TEMPERATURE...33 TO 37 DEGREES...WARMEST NEAR THE BEACHES. * IMPACTS...FROST CAN DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION. TROPICAL PATIO PLANTS ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. ++ $$ TRA NPWILM 5 NPWILM URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT... NCZ097-100-290400- /O.UPG.KILM.FZ.A.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KILM.FZ.W.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ PENDER-BRUNSWICK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURGAW...SURF CITY...LELAND...SHALLOTTE 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TEMPERATURE...27 TO 32 DEGREES INLAND. THE COLDEST READINGS WILL OCCUR IN POCOSIN AREAS WITH ORGANIC MUCK SOILS. LOW TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE BEACHES WILL REMAIN 33 TO 37 DEGREES. * IMPACTS...FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION. TROPICAL PATIO PLANTS ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES. MOST GARDEN OR FIELD CROPS CAN BE DAMAGED BY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS CAN KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION UNLESS PROTECTIVE ACTIONS ARE TAKEN. ++ $$ NCZ087-096-099-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-290400- /O.UPG.KILM.FZ.A.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KILM.FZ.W.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE- MARION- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUMBERTON...ELIZABETHTOWN... WHITEVILLE...BENNETTSVILLE...DARLINGTON...DILLON...FLORENCE... MARION 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TEMPERATURE...30 TO 32 DEGREES. * IMPACTS...FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION. TROPICAL PATIO PLANTS ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES. MOST GARDEN OR FIELD CROPS CAN BE DAMAGED BY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS CAN KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION UNLESS PROTECTIVE ACTIONS ARE TAKEN. ++ $$ SCZ034-290400- /O.UPG.KILM.FZ.A.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KILM.FZ.W.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ HORRY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CONWAY...MYRTLE BEACH 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TEMPERATURE...32 DEGREES INLAND TO 37 DEGREES AT THE BEACHES. * IMPACTS...FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION. TROPICAL PATIO PLANTS ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES. MOST GARDEN OR FIELD CROPS CAN BE DAMAGED BY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS CAN KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION UNLESS PROTECTIVE ACTIONS ARE TAKEN. ++ $$ NCZ101-290400- /O.NEW.KILM.FR.Y.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ NEW HANOVER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. * TEMPERATURE...33 TO 37 DEGREES...WARMEST NEAR THE BEACHES. * IMPACTS...FROST CAN DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION. TROPICAL PATIO PLANTS ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. ++ $$ TRA AFDCHS 1 +nbsp;AFDCHS+nbsp;| NPWILM 6 +nbsp;NPWILM+nbsp;| NPWILM 7 NPWILM URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT... NCZ097-100-290400- /O.UPG.KILM.FZ.A.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KILM.FZ.W.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ PENDER-BRUNSWICK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURGAW...SURF CITY...LELAND...SHALLOTTE 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TEMPERATURE...27 TO 32 DEGREES INLAND. THE COLDEST READINGS WILL OCCUR IN POCOSIN AREAS WITH ORGANIC MUCK SOILS. LOW TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE BEACHES WILL REMAIN 33 TO 37 DEGREES. * IMPACTS...FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION. TROPICAL PATIO PLANTS ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES. MOST GARDEN OR FIELD CROPS CAN BE DAMAGED BY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS CAN KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION UNLESS PROTECTIVE ACTIONS ARE TAKEN. ++ $$ NCZ087-096-099-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-290400- /O.UPG.KILM.FZ.A.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KILM.FZ.W.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE- MARION- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUMBERTON...ELIZABETHTOWN... WHITEVILLE...BENNETTSVILLE...DARLINGTON...DILLON...FLORENCE... MARION 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TEMPERATURE...30 TO 32 DEGREES. * IMPACTS...FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION. TROPICAL PATIO PLANTS ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES. MOST GARDEN OR FIELD CROPS CAN BE DAMAGED BY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS CAN KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION UNLESS PROTECTIVE ACTIONS ARE TAKEN. ++ $$ SCZ034-290400- /O.UPG.KILM.FZ.A.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KILM.FZ.W.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ HORRY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CONWAY...MYRTLE BEACH 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TEMPERATURE...32 DEGREES INLAND TO 37 DEGREES AT THE BEACHES. * IMPACTS...FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION. TROPICAL PATIO PLANTS ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES. MOST GARDEN OR FIELD CROPS CAN BE DAMAGED BY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS CAN KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION UNLESS PROTECTIVE ACTIONS ARE TAKEN. ++ $$ NCZ101-290400- /O.NEW.KILM.FR.Y.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ NEW HANOVER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. * TEMPERATURE...33 TO 37 DEGREES...WARMEST NEAR THE BEACHES. * IMPACTS...FROST CAN DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION. TROPICAL PATIO PLANTS ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. ++ $$ TRA NPWILM 8 NPWILM URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT... NCZ097-100-290400- /O.UPG.KILM.FZ.A.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KILM.FZ.W.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ PENDER-BRUNSWICK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURGAW...SURF CITY...LELAND...SHALLOTTE 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TEMPERATURE...27 TO 32 DEGREES INLAND. THE COLDEST READINGS WILL OCCUR IN POCOSIN AREAS WITH ORGANIC MUCK SOILS. LOW TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE BEACHES WILL REMAIN 33 TO 37 DEGREES. * IMPACTS...FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION. TROPICAL PATIO PLANTS ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES. MOST GARDEN OR FIELD CROPS CAN BE DAMAGED BY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS CAN KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION UNLESS PROTECTIVE ACTIONS ARE TAKEN. ++ $$ NCZ087-096-099-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-290400- /O.UPG.KILM.FZ.A.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KILM.FZ.W.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE- MARION- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUMBERTON...ELIZABETHTOWN... WHITEVILLE...BENNETTSVILLE...DARLINGTON...DILLON...FLORENCE... MARION 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TEMPERATURE...30 TO 32 DEGREES. * IMPACTS...FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION. TROPICAL PATIO PLANTS ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES. MOST GARDEN OR FIELD CROPS CAN BE DAMAGED BY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS CAN KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION UNLESS PROTECTIVE ACTIONS ARE TAKEN. ++ $$ SCZ034-290400- /O.UPG.KILM.FZ.A.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KILM.FZ.W.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ HORRY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CONWAY...MYRTLE BEACH 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TEMPERATURE...32 DEGREES INLAND TO 37 DEGREES AT THE BEACHES. * IMPACTS...FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION. TROPICAL PATIO PLANTS ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES. MOST GARDEN OR FIELD CROPS CAN BE DAMAGED BY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS CAN KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION UNLESS PROTECTIVE ACTIONS ARE TAKEN. ++ $$ NCZ101-290400- /O.NEW.KILM.FR.Y.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ NEW HANOVER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. * TEMPERATURE...33 TO 37 DEGREES...WARMEST NEAR THE BEACHES. * IMPACTS...FROST CAN DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION. TROPICAL PATIO PLANTS ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. ++ $$ TRA NPWILM 9 NPWILM URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT... NCZ097-100-290400- /O.UPG.KILM.FZ.A.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KILM.FZ.W.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ PENDER-BRUNSWICK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURGAW...SURF CITY...LELAND...SHALLOTTE 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TEMPERATURE...27 TO 32 DEGREES INLAND. THE COLDEST READINGS WILL OCCUR IN POCOSIN AREAS WITH ORGANIC MUCK SOILS. LOW TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE BEACHES WILL REMAIN 33 TO 37 DEGREES. * IMPACTS...FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION. TROPICAL PATIO PLANTS ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES. MOST GARDEN OR FIELD CROPS CAN BE DAMAGED BY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS CAN KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION UNLESS PROTECTIVE ACTIONS ARE TAKEN. ++ $$ NCZ087-096-099-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-290400- /O.UPG.KILM.FZ.A.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KILM.FZ.W.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE- MARION- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUMBERTON...ELIZABETHTOWN... WHITEVILLE...BENNETTSVILLE...DARLINGTON...DILLON...FLORENCE... MARION 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TEMPERATURE...30 TO 32 DEGREES. * IMPACTS...FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION. TROPICAL PATIO PLANTS ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES. MOST GARDEN OR FIELD CROPS CAN BE DAMAGED BY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS CAN KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION UNLESS PROTECTIVE ACTIONS ARE TAKEN. ++ $$ SCZ034-290400- /O.UPG.KILM.FZ.A.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KILM.FZ.W.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ HORRY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CONWAY...MYRTLE BEACH 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TEMPERATURE...32 DEGREES INLAND TO 37 DEGREES AT THE BEACHES. * IMPACTS...FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION. TROPICAL PATIO PLANTS ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES. MOST GARDEN OR FIELD CROPS CAN BE DAMAGED BY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS CAN KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION UNLESS PROTECTIVE ACTIONS ARE TAKEN. ++ $$ NCZ101-290400- /O.NEW.KILM.FR.Y.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ NEW HANOVER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. * TEMPERATURE...33 TO 37 DEGREES...WARMEST NEAR THE BEACHES. * IMPACTS...FROST CAN DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION. TROPICAL PATIO PLANTS ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. ++ $$ TRA NPWILM 10 NPWILM URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT... NCZ097-100-290400- /O.UPG.KILM.FZ.A.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KILM.FZ.W.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ PENDER-BRUNSWICK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURGAW...SURF CITY...LELAND...SHALLOTTE 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TEMPERATURE...27 TO 32 DEGREES INLAND. THE COLDEST READINGS WILL OCCUR IN POCOSIN AREAS WITH ORGANIC MUCK SOILS. LOW TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE BEACHES WILL REMAIN 33 TO 37 DEGREES. * IMPACTS...FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION. TROPICAL PATIO PLANTS ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES. MOST GARDEN OR FIELD CROPS CAN BE DAMAGED BY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS CAN KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION UNLESS PROTECTIVE ACTIONS ARE TAKEN. ++ $$ NCZ087-096-099-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-290400- /O.UPG.KILM.FZ.A.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KILM.FZ.W.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE- MARION- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUMBERTON...ELIZABETHTOWN... WHITEVILLE...BENNETTSVILLE...DARLINGTON...DILLON...FLORENCE... MARION 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TEMPERATURE...30 TO 32 DEGREES. * IMPACTS...FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION. TROPICAL PATIO PLANTS ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES. MOST GARDEN OR FIELD CROPS CAN BE DAMAGED BY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS CAN KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION UNLESS PROTECTIVE ACTIONS ARE TAKEN. ++ $$ SCZ034-290400- /O.UPG.KILM.FZ.A.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KILM.FZ.W.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ HORRY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CONWAY...MYRTLE BEACH 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TEMPERATURE...32 DEGREES INLAND TO 37 DEGREES AT THE BEACHES. * IMPACTS...FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION. TROPICAL PATIO PLANTS ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES. MOST GARDEN OR FIELD CROPS CAN BE DAMAGED BY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS CAN KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION UNLESS PROTECTIVE ACTIONS ARE TAKEN. ++ $$ NCZ101-290400- /O.NEW.KILM.FR.Y.0001.110329T0600Z-110329T1300Z/ NEW HANOVER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH 253 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2011 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. * TEMPERATURE...33 TO 37 DEGREES...WARMEST NEAR THE BEACHES. * IMPACTS...FROST CAN DAMAGE TENDER VEGETATION. TROPICAL PATIO PLANTS ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. ++ $$ TRA AFDMOB 1 +nbsp;AFDMOB+nbsp;| AFDLCH 1 +nbsp;AFDLCH+nbsp;| +nbsp;AFDLIX+nbsp;| AFDLIX 1 AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 410 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2011 .SHORT TERM...FRONT PUSHED DOWN TO THE COAST WHILE CLOUDS CLEARED OUT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. FURTHER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST IN OUR CWA CLOUDS DID HANG AROUND A LITTLE LONGER AND THIS HAS DRASTIC IMPACTS ON THE TEMPS AS BTR HAS ONLY REACHED THE MID 70S AND MCB MID 60S BY 20Z. ZONAL FLOW IS STILL IN PLACE ALOFT AND WV SHOWS A RATHER DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION CURRENTLY. THAT SAID THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO CHANGE RATHER QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 12/24HRS. TONIGHT...MOSTLY A QUIET NIGHT IN STORE. THE FRONT OVER THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE LAND AND COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG OVER INLAND AREAS. CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE ONSHORE WINDS START TO REDEVELOP WE MAY SEE MORE MODERATE FOG AS THIS BECOMES MORE OF A MARINE TYPE ENVIRONMENT HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT. TOMORROW...INITIALLY WE WILL START OFF QUIET. AGAIN WE ARE LOOKING FOR A STRONG S/W TO DROP SE OUT OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LEADING TO MORE OF A SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THIS WILL TAP INTO THE ERN PAC MOISTURE AND BRING IT INTO OUR REGION BY TUE NIGHT. IN THE LL...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER TX ALONG WITH AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH STRETCHING FROM SERN TX THROUGH CNTRL LA/MS AND INTO NRN AL WILL LEAD TO MODERATE SERLY-SRLY LL FLOW. THIS WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE LL MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION AND ALL OF THIS COULD END UP SETTING THE STAGE FOR A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR TOMORROW AFTN WITH SHOWALTERS OF -4 TO -5 AND MLCAPE VALUES OF NEAR 1500 J/KG WHILE STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7.5C/KM AND VT OF 28C WILL BE IN PLACE. THAT SAID THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE FCST THROUGH TUE AFTN. FIRST OFF WITH NO WELL DEFINED DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO COME THROUGH THE CAP THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE TOMORROW MORNING MAY TAKE QUITE A WHILE TO GET RID OF. SECOND IN ADDITION TO THE LACK OF A STRONG FOCUSING MECHANISM WE MAY HAVE TO COMPLETELY RELY ON DAY TIME HEATING TO GET THINGS GOING. THAT SAID ISLTD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTN BUT LOOK FOR A BETTER CHANCE TOMORROW EVN. AS FOR MODE...WITH THE LACK OF STRONG SHEAR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL(MAY BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES) APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN. ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE IF THE INVERTED TROUGH/WARM FRONT IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CWA ANY STORM THAT CROSSES THE FRONT WOULD GET SOME LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT AND COULD QUICKLY DROP A TORNADO AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH AND ACROSS THE BNDRY. TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...THIS IS GOING TO BE THE BUSIEST PART OF THE FCST. FORCING REALLY INCREASES DURING THE EVN AS H5 HGHTS DROP 2DM IN 6 HRS AND THEN DROP ANOTHER 3DM B/T 6Z AND 12Z WED. A WEAK SFC WAVE/LOW WILL TRY TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN GULF COAST/SRN LA AND MOVE TO THE NE TWRDS SRN/CNTRL AL WED AFTN. THE INCREASE IN LIFT ALOFT AND FORCING FROM THE SFC LOW SHOULD GET NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA OVERNIGHT. INITIALLY TUE EVN THE SVR RISK MAY STILL BE THE BIGGER ISSUE AS LIFT INCREASES A FEW MORE TSRA WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP BUT AS MOISTURE INCREASES DURING THE EVN AND HGHTS FALL EVEN FURTHER/FASTER THINGS COULD BECOME QUITE MESSY AS WE MOVE INTO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRASTICALLY INCREASE WITH A LL JET HELPING TO TRANSPORT H85 THETA E AIR AROUND 335K AND POSSIBLY HIGHER INTO THE REGION. THE INCREASE IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO AID IN THE PAC MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PWS COULD APPROACH 1.75 WHICH IS ALMOST 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AGAIN WITH THIS MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND INCREASING LIFT THINGS WILL TRANSFORM INTO MORE OF AN MCS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE WE WILL HAVE A COUPLED JET TO WORK WITH AND THE NOSE OF THE LL JET RIGHT INTO OUR REGION SOME OF THESE TSRA WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT. OVERALL WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN STILL LOOKS LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 3 INCHES AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED AREAS NEAR 5 INCHES. THAT SAID THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MDLS. WE ARE GOING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLN WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE SREF/GFES/GEM. THE NAM AND GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE MUCH LIGHTER WITH THE PRECIP TUE NIGHT AND ARE HITTING A SECOND SFC LOW OVER THE NERN GULF/SERN CONUS MUCH HARDER. THE GFS HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE AND THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MDL ALONG WITH INITIALIZING BETTER SO WE WILL STICK WITH IT. A LARGE AREA OF SHRA AND TSRA WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS AND THROUGH THE MORNING WED. THINGS SHOULD START TO DRY OUT FROM NW TO SE WED AFTN BUT WITH MOSTLY ZONAL/SW FLOW ALOFT THE BNDRY WILL NOT GET A STRONG PUSH SO SHRA AND ISLTD TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS COASTAL ZONES AND IN THE MARINE ZONES. AGAIN WITH SOME OF THE PARAMETERS AND THE OVERALL PATTERN THAT MAY BE SETTING UP WE COULD GET A FEW TSRA THAT COULD QUICKLY DROP QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL IN SHORT TIME AND LEAD TO SOME FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. .LONG TERM...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AFTER WED BUT THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA WED NIGHT AND THU BUT OVERALL THINGS HAVEN`T CHANGED FOR EARLIER THINKING WITH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PREVIOUS LONG TERM PORTION HAS BEEN APPENDED. /CAB/ PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING A MUCH WEAKER AND BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH LARGER SCALE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE NEAR THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE BEST LIFT FROM UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE QUICKLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT NOW APPEARS ANY LEFTOVER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE IN MAINLY COASTAL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOST OF THE RAIN ENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...BUT PVA FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING EAST WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY REPLACE THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA...BUT THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY AND MILD WEATHER FRIDAY...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND WARMS. THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO COME ABOUT TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. 22/TD ++ .AVIATION... CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS CURRENTLY ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR HAMMOND. HAVE TEMPO SHRA IN FORECAST...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON CONVECTIVE MENTION UNTIL WE ACTUALLY SEE ENOUGH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO MERIT SUCH. AFTER SUNSET WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...ANTICIPATE REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND IFR CEILINGS AND/OR VSBYS AROUND 08-09Z. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS BY MID MORNING MONDAY. /35/ ++ .MARINE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT BUT LOOK FOR ONSHORE FLOW TO REDEVELOP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME LIGHT FOG ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES DURING THE MORNING HRS BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A FOG ISSUE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SE AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO SLOWLY DEEPEN IN ERN TX AND MORE SO TUE NIGHT WITH THE SFC LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SRN LA. THAT SAID NOT LOOKING FOR SCY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT TUE AND INTO WED. SEAS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AT 5 FT. WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY GO BACK TO OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WED AND EARLY THU BUT WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AS ANOTHER SFC LOW TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NERN GULF SERN CONUS THU AND ONCE THIS MOVES TO THE NE THU NIGHT THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH ALL THE WAY INTO THE GULF WITH NW FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT THU. SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE IN ISSUE WED AND THROUGH THU BUT THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN THU NIGHT. /CAB/ AFDBRO 1 +nbsp;AFDBRO+nbsp;| +nbsp;AFDHGX+nbsp;| +nbsp;AFDFWD+nbsp;| +nbsp;AFDLUB+nbsp;| AFDAKQ 1 +nbsp;AFDAKQ+nbsp;| http://www.flhurricane.com/cgi-bin/cfhcnews?talkback+7+1+0+2002 09:03 PM EDT - 10 May 2002 7 2002 - [mac] 0 hurricane.jpg http://www.flhurricane.com/cgi-bin/cfhcnews?talkback+6+1+57+2002 10:23 PM EDT - 28 April 2002 6 2002 - [mac] 57 hurricane.jpg http://www.flhurricane.com/cgi-bin/cfhcnews?talkback+5+1+125+2002 10:15 AM EDT - 16 April 2002 5 2002 - [jc] 125 writingsonthewall.jpg http://www.flhurricane.com/cgi-bin/cfhcnews?talkback+4+1+129+2002 09:29 AM EDT - 04 April 2002 4 2002 - [mac] 129 shuttle.jpg http://www.flhurricane.com/cgi-bin/cfhcnews?talkback+3+1+56+2002 04:50 PM EDT - 14 March 2002 3 2002 - [mac] 56 lightning.jpg