TCDAT1 1 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009 900 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009 SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IDA HAS BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMMA-LIKE APPEARANCE AND TEMPERATURE DATA FROM DAUPHIN ISLAND SHOWED A 5F TEMPERATURE DECREASE AFTER THE CENTER PASSED THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF ELEVATED MARINE STATIONS REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 34 KT...THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT THESE WINDS ARE SURFACE-BASED...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT. ALTHOUGH THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE WITH IDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THESE WINDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CONFINED OVER WATER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/8. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON IDA TURNING EASTWARD AS IT BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO A DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE NEW FORECAST WILL SHOW ABSORPTION OF IDA BY A NEW MID-LATITUDE LOW...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IDA WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT BAROCLINIC LOW. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 3 PM CST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 30.6N 87.6W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 12HR VT 11/0000Z 30.9N 86.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 11/1200Z 30.7N 84.9W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 12/0000Z 30.0N 82.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 12/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/CANGIALOSI TCPAT1 1 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009 900 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009 ...IDA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...ALL WARNINGS DISCONTINUED... AT 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IDA MADE ITS SECOND LANDFALL AROUND 700 AM CST...1300 UTC...JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF BON SECOUR ALABAMA. AT 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES... 50 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA AND ABOUT 25 MILES... 40 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IDA HAS LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND ITS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES...THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM THE EASTERN GULF COAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WATER LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY. ...SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST INFORMATION... LOCATION...30.6N 87.6W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON IDA CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 300 PM CST. TCDAT2 1 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009 500 PM AST SAT SEP 12 2009 OTHER THAN A SHORT-LIVED PUFF OF DEEP CONVECTION WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER...FRED IS NOW A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. IN FACT...THERE HAS BEEN NO CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FRED SINCE ABOUT 0000 UTC....AND FRED IS NO LONGER CLASSIFIABLE USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION ALSO MEANS THAT FRED IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE... AND IS NOW DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT...BASED UPON AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AND THE ASSUMPTION THAT THERE HAS BEEN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING SINCE THAT TIME. WHAT REMAINS OF FRED SHOULD BEGIN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS NORTH. SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS STILL MAINTAIN THE REMNANTS OF FRED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD MAKE REGENERATION A SLIM POSSIBILITY. THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON FRED. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 17.7N 33.7W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW 12HR VT 13/0600Z 18.1N 34.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 13/1800Z 19.0N 35.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 14/0600Z 19.8N 37.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 14/1800Z 21.1N 39.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN TCDAT3 1 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082009 500 PM AST SAT SEP 26 2009 SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THAT THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT HAS WEAKENED TO AN ELONGATED TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTICITY CENTERS. WHILE THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CONVECTION THAT IS CLASSIFIABLE USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE...IT NO LONGER HAS A WELL-ENOUGH DEFINED CIRCULATION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE REMNANT TROUGH OR TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER UNLESS REGENERATION OCCUR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/2100Z 18.9N 35.7W 25 KT 12HR VT 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN TCDAT4 1 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092009 1100 PM AST MON OCT 05 2009 GRACE HAS MERGED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2026 UTC...PRIOR TO INTERACTION WITH THE FRONT...SHOWED A FEW 40-45 KT WIND VECTORS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE REMNANTS OF GRACE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A DECREASING AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS AS THEY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE MAY HAVE BEEN A FEW MILLIBARS TOO HIGH...AS A RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION NEAR THE CENTER REPORTED 986.6 MB. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF GRACE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UNITED KINGDOM METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE UNDER WMO HEADER WONT54 EGRR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 49.7N 13.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ FORECASTER BROWN TCDAT5 1 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102009 500 PM AST THU OCT 08 2009 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DEVOURED YET ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS YEAR. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT HENRI HAS ONLY A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. THUS...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON HENRI ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. BASED ON THE DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS RECENTLY TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANTS WILL MOVE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/2100Z 20.4N 62.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 12HR VT 09/0600Z 20.6N 64.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 09/1800Z 20.5N 66.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 10/0600Z 20.5N 69.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE DSAAT 1 DSAAT SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1130 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008 A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT... AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA... HONDURAS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA TCUAT 1 TCUAT1 HURRICANE IDA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009 1115 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009 ...IDA REACHES HURRICANE INTENSITY... DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 42056...LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 120 MILES...195 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO... RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 74 MPH...119 KM/HR. THIS INDICATES THAT IDA HAS ONCE AGAIN REACHED HURRICANE STATUS... WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 75 MPH...120 KM/HR. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING IDA AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECASTER BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN TCUAT 2 TCUAT2 TROPICAL STORM ANA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009 1100 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2009 AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMEY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN TCUAT 3 TCUAT3 HURRICANE BILL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009 525 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2009 ...NUMEROUS CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR ATLANTIC CANADA... AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS MADE THE FOLLOWING MODIFICATIONS TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR HURRICANE BILL. FOR NOVA SCOTIA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST FROM LISMORE TO BRULE. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM HUBBARDS TO ECUM SECUM HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM ECUM SECUM TO BRULE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST FROM BRULE TO MALAGASH. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM AVONPORT TO FIVE ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM BRULE TO MALAGASH. THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM ECUM SECUM TO POINT TUPPER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SAVAGE HARBOUR TO WOOD ISLANDS EAST. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM VICTORIA TO WOOD ISLANDS EAST AND FROM SAVAGE HARBOUR TO LOWER DARNLEY. FOR NEWFOUNDLAND... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM BURGEO TO STONES COVE AND FROM BONAVISTA TO FOGO ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM BURGEO EASTWARD AROUND THE AVALON PENINSULA AND NORTHWARD TO FOGO ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PARSONS POND TO BURGEO ON THE WEST AND SOUTH COAST AND FROM FOGO ISLAND TO HARBOUR DEEP ON THE NORTHEAST COAST. FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG TCUAT 4 TCUAT4 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009 1225 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2009 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE EASTERN END OF SANTA ROSA ISLAND...JUST SOUTHEAST OF FORT WALTON BEACH FLORIDA AROUND 1210 AM CDT...0510 UTC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN AFDTAE 1 +nbsp;AFDTAE+nbsp;| +nbsp;AFDJAX+nbsp;| +nbsp;AFDMFL+nbsp;| +nbsp;AFDMLB+nbsp;| +nbsp;AFDKEY+nbsp;| +nbsp;AFDTBW+nbsp;| AFDMFL 1 AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 340 PM EST THU MAR 11 2010 ...INCREASING FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... ...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY... UPDATED MARINE SECTION. .DISCUSSION... LATEST GUIDANCE STILL DEPICTS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING THROUGH TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD, WITH AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER THAT SOUTH FLORIDA WILL GET THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT 18Z SPECIAL SNDG SHOWS THIS INCREASE HAS NOT YET MATERIALIZED. THE MAIN CONCERN AND DEBATE AT THIS MOMENT IS IF ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL DEVELOP IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND/OR SEVERE WEATHER. ALTHOUGH SOME PARAMETERS LIKE HELICITY ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, LACK OF LOW LEVEL LIFTING MECHANISMS, MARGINAL CAPES, AND NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ARE KEEPING DEVELOPMENT RATHER LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME. FURTHERMORE...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS WATER VAPOR PLUME FROM THE PACIFIC STREAMING ACROSS THE GULF AND THE PENINSULA TO OUR NORTH WITH SNDGS ACROSS THE STATE INCLUDING OURS SHOWING A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. THIS IS ALL INDICATIVE OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL BUT THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER MSTR PLUME WILL REALLY NOT GET DOWN INTO SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL TONIGHT AND MOST LIKELY TOMORROW. SO DECIDED TO LOWER POPS DOWN INTO THE LIKELY RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND LEFT THEN AT 80 OR ABOVE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY, THE STORY IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT. A FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN FL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY BRINGING LOW LEVEL FORCING...HIGHER INSTABILITY...AND MOISTURE LEVELS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. LATEST GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS REACHING 2.3 INCHES IN THE AFTERNOON AND CAPE OF AROUND 1775 J/KG. GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, THE LACK OF A MID LEVEL INVERSION AS WELL AS GOOD LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAKES THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HELICITIES IN EXCESS OF 20O TO 300 CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO BUT AS THE ACTUAL FRONTAL TROUGH GETS CLOSER ON FRIDAY THOSE VALUES WILL DECREASE STEADILY DURING THE DAY WITH THE THREAT DECREASING. THE MAIN CONCERN WE BELIEVE WILL REMAIN THE POTENTIAL THEN FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY. WE WILL KEEP MONITORING THIS AND IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO FORECAST LEVELS AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY...AND GIVEN THE POTENTIAL AS IT IS HAPPENING TODAY TO OUR NORTH WITH TRAINING ECHO PATTERNS DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST UNDERNEATH UPPER LEVEL WATER VAPOR PLUME...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT THIS TIME THAT WE MIGHT NEED A FLOOD WATCH LATER TONIGHT FOR FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD, PUSHING ITS COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT DECREASING SUBSTANTIALLY OVERNIGHT WITH NICE CONDITIONS OVERALL DEVELOPING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DOMINATES SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID WEEK, WHEN THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA. ++ .MARINE...MARINE WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND BEHIND IT ON SATURDAY WHEN EITHER SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR ADVISORIES MIGHT AGAIN BE NEEDED. SEAS ARE OVERALL EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF COLLIER COUNTY WHERE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 7 FEET LATE SATURYDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. ++ .FIRE WEATHER...BEHIND THE FRONT AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL GET DOWN TO NEAR MARGINAL LEVELS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME THE MAIN DAY OF CONCERN LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY. ++ .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 70 79 60 77 / 80 90 70 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 72 81 64 77 / 80 90 80 20 MIAMI 71 82 64 78 / 80 90 80 20 NAPLES 70 76 61 74 / 80 90 50 10 ++ .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR BISCAYNE BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM. GM...NONE. ++ $$ LONG TERM...17/ERA SHORT TERM/AVIATION...54/BNB AFDMLB 1 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 330 PM EST THU MAR 11 2010 .DISCUSSION... ...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY... ...HEAVY RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD FRIDAY... TONIGHT/FRI... ACTIVE WX PATTERN FOR FL THRU THE PD. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM BLANKETING THE NATIONS MIDSECTION WILL COMBINE WITH A MID LVL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NW CARIB/WRN ATLC TO GENERATE A STRONG SWRLY FLOW ACROSS THE GOMEX/DEEP SOUTH. THESE WINDS WILL PULL DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THAT WILL POOL WITHIN A BROAD FRONTAL TROF OVER THE GOMEX. MEANWHILE...A +160KT H25 JET OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/NW GOMEX WILL GENERATE STRONG UPR LVL DIVERGENCE AS A SERIES OF MID LVL DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS FL PENINSULA. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF THRU EARLY EVENING OVER THE NRN CWA AS THE LINE OF STORMS DROPS S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM MOISTURE AND REGIONAL DYNAMIC LIFT IS PLENTIFUL. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP TO DEVELOP OVER THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. DEFINITIVE POPS AREAWIDE THRU THE PD...80%-100%. LAPSE RATES THRU BOTH THE H85-H70 AND H85-H50 LYRS ARE SOMEWHAT SHALLOW OVER THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY...GENERALLY AOB 6.5C/KM. HOWEVER...STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVER THE CENTRAL GOMEX (AOA 7.5C/KM) EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP SWRLY FLOW COULD ADVECT INTO THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. FURTHERMORE... STRONG SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVER THE REGION WILL GIVE ANY CELLS THAT DO FORM THE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE. THIS WEEKEND...VORTEX IN THE NATIONS MIDSECTION WILL PUSH ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD AND BE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST EARLY SAT SO HAVE REMOVED SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE SOUTH. A WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT THE COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT AND TEMPS SHOULD BE JUST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY. BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE PENINSULA SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR A PERFECTLY SUNNY WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ON SAT. MON-THU...THE EAST COAST TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING IN BEHIND IT. THIS SHOULD KEEP IT DRY MON-TUE. TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL BUT OVERALL QUITE PLEASANT AFTER THE COLD WINTER WE HAVE HAD. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ALONG IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS FORECAST ON ABOUT WED. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THAT THIS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG OF A SYSTEM AS IT ENTERS A CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. STILL THESE SPRING-LIKE SYSTEMS CAN BRING A QUICK SHOT OF HIGH MOISTURE...SO WILL HAVE SMALL POPS IN THE FORECAST FROM TUE NIGHT-THU. ++ AVIATION...THRU 11/24Z...PREVAILING CIGS BLO FL0240-050 WITH WDSPRD MVFR SHRAS/SCT IFR TSRAS...OCNL SFC WND G25KTS. BTWN 11/24Z-12/06Z... PREVAILING CIGS BLO FL020 WITH WDSPRD MVFR SHRAS/SCT IFR TSRAS... OCNL SFC WND G20KTS. BTWN 12/06Z-12/12Z PREVAILING CIGS BTWN FL020-030 WITH SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR +SHRAS. AFT 12/12Z... PREVAILING CIGS FL020-030 WITH NMRS MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR TSRAS. ++ .MARINE... MODERATE TO FRESH S/SW BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. PGRAD WILL SLACKEN AS A FRONTAL TROF OVER THE WRN GOMEX PUSHES TOWARD TH FL PENINSULA OVERNIGHT... ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND VEER TO THE NW BY DAYBREAK SAT. WHILE SEAS WILL DECREASE ALONG WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS...THE PERSISTENT OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL GENERATE CHOPPY SHORT PD SEAS THRU FRI. SCA IN PLACE FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES THRU 03Z. THIS WEEKEND...FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL BE SOLIDLY FROM THE WEST BOTH DAYS. WITH MODEST COLD ADVECTION THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PRODUCE 20-25 KNOT/GUSTY IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED SCA...AT LEAST FOR WINDS. ++ .FIRE WEATHER...NO SIG FIRE WX CONCERNS THRU FRI. BY THIS WEEKEND ...COOLER/DRIER AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE MIN RH VALUES OF 35-40 PERCENT. WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY BOTH DAYS. BY MON...A MORE NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR LESS AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND RH VALUES COULD BE A LITTLE LOWER. ++ .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 66 71 54 / 100 70 80 20 MCO 78 66 75 55 / 100 80 80 20 MLB 77 67 74 55 / 100 80 100 30 VRB 78 69 74 56 / 100 90 100 30 LEE 77 65 75 56 / 100 70 80 20 SFB 78 65 75 55 / 100 70 80 20 ORL 77 65 75 56 / 100 80 80 20 FPR 79 70 75 58 / 100 100 100 40 ++ .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA- INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD- NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE. AM...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. ++ $$ SHORT TERM...BRAGAW LONG TERM....CRISTALDI AVIATION...BRAGAW AFDJAX 1 AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 310 PM EST THU MAR 11 2010 ...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WAY FOR FRIDAY... .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT...MID LEVEL DRY SLOT PUNCH HAS PUSHED ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS ACRS SERN GA AND ACRS FLAGLER/ST JOHNS AND MARION COUNTIES. PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO FADE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH ONLY ISOLD SHOWERS AT BEST AFTER SUNSET. JUST A SHORT BREAK AS NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE AND PCPN WILL SURGE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACRS NERN FL TOWARD MORNING WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. FRIDAY...12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW SPLIT WITH COMPLEX TROF AND MAIN PCPN BELT MOVING ACRS NERN FL WITH 1-2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS THERE AND A FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FLAGLER/MARION/PUTNAM COUNTIES WITH NEXT PACKAGE. SHORTWAVE/ENERGY FURTHER UPSTREAM ACRS THE SERN U.S. WILL TRACK JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY JUST CLIPPING THE SERN GA AREAS WITH SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ALTHOUGH ANY AMOUNT OF HEATING THERE COULD RESULT IN SOME STRONG TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTN HOURS. FRI NIGHT...STILL EXPECTING BIG DRY SLOT PUSH TO END PCPN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S/50S. SAT AND SUN...BREEZY TO WINDY WEST WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF STRONG CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S BOTH DAYS. LAKE WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE POSTED EACH AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM... MON/TUE...LESS WIND AND REMAINING DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 70 AND MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S. WED/THU...NEXT MID LEVEL TROF WILL DROP SOUTHWARD WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS...BUT WILL ALSO NUDGE TEMPS COOLER WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 60S. ++ .AVIATION...THE PRECIP HAS ENDED AT THE NE FL TERMINALS AND WILL BE ENDING AT SSI WITHIN THE HOUR. CIGS HAVE BEEN PREVAILING IFR WITH THE WARM FRONT AND PCP IN THE AREA AND WILL PROBABLY RAISE TO MVFR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIP. HOWEVER... CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR AGAIN THIS EVE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND THESE IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY. ++ .MARINE... SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MUCH STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED TODAY AND HAVE RAISED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NEARSHORE TO COMPLEMENT OFFSHORE SCA/S ALREADY IN PLACE. STILL ON TRACK FOR DIMINISHING WINDS LATER THIS EVENING AND HEADLINES WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN DOWN BY THE EVENING SHIFT. NEXT SURGE OF WESTERLY WINDS LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT IS STILL ON TRACK AND NEW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE POSTED WITH UPCOMING PACKAGES. OFFSHORE WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING ON TUESDAY. ++ .FIRE WEATHER... MIN RH VALUES APPEAR TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 35 PERCENT ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH ON SAT AFTERNOON...BUT NOT HIGH ENUF CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. ++ .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 69 55 73 48 / 50 20 50 50 SSI 65 56 69 53 / 100 20 50 40 JAX 72 57 70 53 / 70 20 50 40 SGJ 73 61 70 54 / 80 30 60 30 GNV 74 62 71 50 / 50 60 70 30 OCF 75 64 72 51 / 60 80 80 20 ++ .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER- NASSAU-ST JOHNS. GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM. ++ $$ HESS/PETERSON/WALKER AFDTBW 1 AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 138 PM EST THU MAR 11 2010 ...TORNADO WATCH FOR MOST OF CENTRAL WESTERN FLORIDA UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING... ...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE AREA... .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...WITH STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET ALIGNED ACROSS THE GULF REGION...ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE FL PENINSULA...AND THE MID LVL TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES THE SCENARIO FOR CONTINUING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. A TORNADO WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ALL COUNTIES BUT CHARLOTTE AND LEE AS THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED JET ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY. LATEST NAM/WRF ARE GOING FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN POPS AND COVERAGE. GFS RELAXES A BIT LATER THIS EVENING...THEN BRINGS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACING ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN FL ON FRIDAY. FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH END POPS WITH 60-70 PERCENT TONIGHT...70-80 PERCENT ON FRIDAY THEN QUICKLY DECREASING FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY EARLY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS MUCH AS IN PREVIOUS OCCASIONS. FRIDAY WILL SEE MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. FOR SATURDAY LOWS COOL OFF A BIT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND HIGHS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ++ .LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EAST OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP BRIEFLY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND GULF OF MEXICO DURING MIDWEEK. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BY LATE TUESDAY THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN GULF AND THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THURSDAY. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THEN DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ON THURSDAY THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ++ .AVIATION....AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOME LOCAL IFR CEILINGS/MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH MVFR/LOCAL IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SOME FOG CONTINUING BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. ++ .MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING AS STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS WILL KEEP HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. WINDS BEGIN RELAXING LATER TONIGHT ...THEN INCREASING AGAIN TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ON FRIDAY AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN REMAIN NEAR HAZARDOUS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND FINALLY SUBSIDING TO BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA BY EARLY SATURDAY. ++ .FIRE WEATHER...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP RH VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ++ .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 66 73 58 72 / 70 80 30 10 FMY 69 77 61 77 / 70 80 40 10 GIF 68 75 56 76 / 70 80 30 10 SRQ 67 73 58 73 / 70 80 30 10 BKV 65 74 50 73 / 60 70 20 10 SPG 67 73 60 72 / 70 80 30 10 ++ .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE- CITRUS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO- PINELLAS-SARASOTA. TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR CITRUS- DESOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-MANATEE- PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER- GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM. ++ $$ SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...22/REYNES LONG TERM/AVIATION...69/CLOSE NPWJAX 1 +nbsp;NPWJAX+nbsp;| +nbsp;TORMLB+nbsp;| +nbsp;SMWMLB+nbsp;| +nbsp;FLSMLB+nbsp;| +nbsp;MWSTBW+nbsp;| +nbsp;NPWTBW+nbsp;| TORMLB 1 TORMLB FLC009-097-112330- /O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0024.100311T2235Z-100311T2330Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 535 PM EST THU MAR 11 2010 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PALM BAY...MALABAR...GRANT...BAREFOOT BAY... EAST CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF KENANSVILLE... * UNTIL 630 PM EST. * AT 534 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF KENANSVILLE...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF LAKE MARIAN... MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF FOREVER FLORIDA...PALM BAY...VALKARIA...GRANT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE. ++ LAT...LON 2787 8048 2792 8049 2794 8052 2787 8049 2783 8050 2783 8088 2796 8120 2809 8116 2807 8059 2794 8052 2796 8051 2803 8056 2807 8057 2807 8055 2786 8045 TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 277DEG 29KT 2800 8109 $$ NPWTBW 1 NPWTBW URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 406 AM EST THU MAR 11 2010 ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM TODAY FOR COASTAL COUNTIES... .A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG COASTAL AREAS. FLZ039-042-048>051-055-060-062-065-120000- /O.NEW.KTBW.LW.Y.0008.100311T1400Z-100312T0000Z/ LEVY-CITRUS-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-SARASOTA- CHARLOTTE-LEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER... INVERNESS...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL...NEW PORT RICHEY... ZEPHYRHILLS...CLEARWATER...ST. PETERSBURG...BRANDON...TAMPA... BRADENTON...SARASOTA...VENICE...PORT CHARLOTTE...PUNTA GORDA... CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS 406 AM EST THU MAR 11 2010 ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 20 TO 29 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR OR ABOVE GALE FORCE FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS. WINDS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WILL CREATE ROUGH CONDITIONS ON LARGER AREA LAKES WHICH COULD PRODUCE DAMAGE TO...OR FLIP...SMALL PLEASURE CRAFT. OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS MAY WISH TO POSTPONE LAKE RELATED ACTIVITIES UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. ++ $$ URNT12 1 URNT12 KWBC 031832 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE A. 3/1832Z B. 30 DEG 0 MIN N 85 DEG 0 MIN W C. 700 MB 3000 M D. 10 KT E. 090 DEG 100 NM F. 180 DEG 10 KT G. 090 DEG 95 NM H. EXTRAP 1011 MB I. 20 C/3000 M J. 20 C/3000 M K. 20 C/NA L. NA M. NA N. 12345/7 O. 1/1 NM P. NOAA3 WXWXA TRAIN OB 07 TEST TEST TEST HWOJAX 1 +nbsp;HWOJAX+nbsp;| +nbsp;HWOMFL+nbsp;| +nbsp;HWOMLB+nbsp;| +nbsp;HWOKEY+nbsp;| +nbsp;SPSTBW+nbsp;| HWOMLB 1 HWOMLB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1141 AM EST THU MAR 11 2010 AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141- 144-147-120445- COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD- OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA- SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD- 1141 AM EST THU MAR 11 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER FLORIDA WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND PROFILES OVER THE AREA INDICATE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO PRODUCE ROTATING STORMS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALSO WILL AID IN PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH 6:00 PM THIS EVENING. ...FLOOD IMPACT... ALTHOUGH STORMS TODAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 35 MPH... INDIVIDUAL CELLS MAY TRAIN REPEATEDLY OVER ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HEAVY SHORT TERM RAINFALL MAY RESULT THAT WOULD ALLOW WATER TO POND ON STREETS...IN LOW LYING AREAS...AND THE LOW SPOTS UNDERNEATH BRIDGES. ...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT... STRONG OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. ...WATERSPOUT IMPACT... STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WATER SPOUTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 30 KNOTS. ...WIND AND SEA IMPACT... A MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL PRODUCE VERY ROUGH... SHORT PERIOD SEAS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC TODAY. SEAS HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 7 FEET NEARSHORE AND 6 TO 8 FEET OFFSHORE CAN BE EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY. MARGINALLY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. TWOAT 1 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 700 PM EST MON NOV 30 2009 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TODAY MARKS THE END OF THE 2009 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. ISSUANCE OF THIS PRODUCT WILL RESUME ON 1 JUNE 2010. SHOULD ANY SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES DEVELOP DURING THE OFF-SEASON...SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WOULD BE ISSUED AS NEEDED UNDER THE SAME WMO HEADER ABNT20 KNHC...AND AWIPS HEADER MIATWOAT. $$ FORECASTER BERG AFDILM 1 +nbsp;AFDILM+nbsp;| +nbsp;AFDMHX+nbsp;| AFDMHX 1 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 440 PM EST THU MAR 11 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...AND MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY AND CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ++ .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM THU...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS....WITH SECOND SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FL PANHANDLE...AND WARM FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTING THE CWA. CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO FILL IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH BULK OF PRECIP CURRENTLY ALONG THE SE COAST. THERE IS SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW...SO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...BUT DON`T EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND COASTAL WATERS. BEST RAIN CHANCES AFTER 00Z. WITH PWATS UP TO 1.5"...RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES...BUT DON`T HAVE ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. ++ .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM THU...A WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN IN PLACE. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY AHEAD OF STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON SO KEPT IN THE MENTION OF THUNDER...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TYPE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD BE FRI NIGHT AND SAT ALONG THE FRONT. FREEZING LEVEL AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WILL BE VERY LOW ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SO HAIL COULD BE A THREAT IN ANY STRONGER STORMS. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY...AND HAVE TAPERED POPS FROM SOUTH-NORTH. LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY..BUT COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE...SO HAVE HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. HIGHS A BIT COOLER SUNDAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE OBX. ++ .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM THU...EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NE COAST. HPC PROGS SHOW SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST WED-THU. GENERALLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S AND UPPER 50S FOR THE OUTER BANKS. ++ .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR TO MVFR WILL HOLD THROUGH LATE AFTN...THEN LOWER TO IFR EARLY EVENING AS WDSPRD PCPN SPREADS OVER AREA. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LIKELY FRI AFTN WITH BREAK IN PCPN...THEN RETURNING TO IFR FRI NIGHT. DRYING AND CLEARING EXPECTED SAT AS FRONT LIFTS NE OF AREA. PERIODS OF MVFR PSBL WITH WDLY SCT SHRA SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATES AROUND UPR LOW. VFR EXPECTED REST OF PERIOD. ++ .MARINE... WINDS WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE THIS EVENING...THUS DELAYING SCA CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE EVE SRN WATERS AND MID MORNING FRI FOR NRN MOST WATERS. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO APPEAR OVERDONE WITH SFC LOW ON WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM S TONIGHT AND LEANED TO ECMWF AND SREF FOR WINDS INTO SAT. SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT INLAND WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS FRI NIGHT AND SAT...THEN MODERATE W TO SW FLOW SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT AS LOW BECOMES NEARLY STNRY OVER MID ATLC. SURGE OF NW WINDS LIKELY MON AND TUE AS LOW MOVES E BUT DID NOT GO AS STRONG AS GFS AND ECMWF AT THIS TIME. LEANED TO WW3 FOR SEAS EARLY DUE TO BETTER INITIALIZATION...THEN BLEND WITH SWAN OVER WEEKEND. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION LATE FRI INTO SAT WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10-12 FT OFFSHORE...BUT LIMITED DURATION OF STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED TO KEEP BELOW ADVSY CRITERIA. ++ .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM EST FRIDAY TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EST FRIDAY TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150. ++ $$ SYNOPSIS...HSA NEAR TERM...CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...JME MARINE...JBM AFDCHS 1 +nbsp;AFDCHS+nbsp;| AFDMOB 1 +nbsp;AFDMOB+nbsp;| AFDLCH 1 +nbsp;AFDLCH+nbsp;| +nbsp;AFDLIX+nbsp;| AFDLIX 1 AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 334 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010 .SHORT TERM...MOSTLY QUIET DAY TODAY. BIGGEST ISSUE WAS CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND TIDAL LAKES. COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY STALLED JUST BACK TO THE NORTH ACROSS NCNTRL MS AND INTO CNTRL LA. IN FACT A WEAK SFC WAVE WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OVER CNTRL LA. A SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WAS STILL WELL BACK TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE OZARKS AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH THE STALLED COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO AN INTERESTING NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. TONIGHT...THIS MAY ACTUALLY BE THE MORE ACTIVE THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT. LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT STALLED JUST NORTH OF THE CWA AND THIS COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. AS THE TX PANHANDLE S/W MOVES TO THE EAST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS IT WILL BEGIN TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MOISTURE IS NOT THE GREATEST BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT ASCENT AND LIFT FROM THE S/W AND ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT HAS SET THE STAGE FOR MODERATE TO RATHER STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8.25 C/KM AND VT OF 28-32!!! THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MDLS INDICATING SHOWALTER VALUES OF -3 TO -5 AND COMPUTED CAPE LIFTING FROM H75 OF CLOSE TO 500J/KG. MLCAPE OF 400-700J/KG COULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WE WILL ALSO HAVE A DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AIDING IN ANY DEVELOPMENT. SO WITH THAT IF WE REALLY DO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH WORKING FOR THE NRN 3RD OF THE CWA TO SEE SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS. THESE STORMS WOULD BE ELEVATED SO THE PRIMARY THREAT IS GOING TO BE LARGE HAIL. THE PRIME TIME FRAME WE ARE LOOKING FOR IS GOING TO BE LATE EVN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HRS...SAY AROUND 5Z THROUGH 10Z. AFTER THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD REALLY START TO WIND DOWN AND PUSH EAST OUT OF THE AREA WITH MOST OF THE RAIN LIKELY GONE RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE. THE OTHER ISSUE TONIGHT IS GOING TO BE FOG. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A BIGGER ISSUE ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES AND ESPECIALLY THE INNER COASTAL WATERS BUT AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LOCATIONS ALONG THE TIDAL LAKES AND ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHSHORE TO THE GULF COASTS AREAS OF MODERATE TO DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH THIS I WILL ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE LA COASTAL PARISHES AND SOUTHSHORE BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THE NORTHSHORE AS FOG MAY BE MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE LAKE. TOMORROW THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THINGS WILL BE MUCH QUIETER AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE CNTRL CONUS SLOWLY MOVES EAST TWRDS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY MIDDAY SUN. THIS WILL KEEP US UNDER DRY AND COOL NW FLOW. TOMORROW THE COOLER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING DURING THE DAY BUT BKN TO OVC SKIES EXPECTED TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL. AS FOR SAT AND SUN LL TEMPS WILL HAVE COOLED NICELY WITH H925 TEMPS POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO AROUND 6C. .LONG TERM...OVERALL NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED. THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT THAN YESTERDAY WITH OUR NEXT SYSTEM COMING INTO THE PICTURE TUE/WED. OVERALL NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FCST. MON THROUGH THU...WE WILL START TO TRANSITION ON MON NW FLOW BREAKS DOWN AND THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WORKS INTO DEEP TX BY MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE PUSH EAST ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST STATES AND COULD BRING US OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH AND COOL US OFF AGAIN KEEPING THE RATHER CHILLY EARLY SPRING ACROSS THE CWA. /CAB/ ++ .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE VISIBILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND A FEW HOURS OF IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. 95/DM ++ .MARINE...BIGGEST ISSUE RIGHT NOW IS GOING TO BE DENSE FOG TONIGHT. UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FOG WILL BE A PROBLEM. IT LOOKS LIKE FOG SHOULD QUICKLY SET BACK IN AROUND MIDNIGHT IF NOT EARLIER AND COULD BE A RATHER PROLONGED PROBLEM UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY COMPLETELY PUSHES THROUGH AND GUSTY NW WINDS TAKE OVER. UNTIL THEN LOOKS FOR VISIBILITIES OF 1SM OR LOWER LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND EVEN TIDAL LAKES. FOG WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE ALONG THE MS RIVER. NOW AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE NW THE FOG WILL QUICKLY START TO MIX OUT BUT THEN THE NEXT ISSUE ARRIVES WITH WINDS APPROACHING SCY CRITERIA. WE WILL LIKELY NEED SCS HEADLINE FOR THE AFTN TOMORROW BUT ONCE STRONGER CAA TAKES OVER LATE TOMORROW AND FRI NIGHT WINDS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS AND THIS COULD PERSIST THROUGH SAT. SO WITH THAT SAID IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL NEED SCY BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW. /CAB/ ++ .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 48 65 42 60 / 70 10 10 10 BTR 53 69 45 66 / 60 0 0 0 ASD 57 70 45 65 / 50 10 0 10 MSY 57 69 51 66 / 40 0 0 10 GPT 57 69 48 63 / 50 10 0 10 PQL 58 72 46 64 / 50 10 0 10 ++ .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY TO 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE. GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY TO 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. MS...NONE. GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY TO 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. ++ $$ NPWLCH 1 +nbsp;NPWLCH+nbsp;| +nbsp;FLSLCH+nbsp;| +nbsp;NPWLIX+nbsp;| +nbsp;FLSLIX+nbsp;| NPWLCH 2 NPWLCH URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 354 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010 ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY... .LASTEST SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. AS THE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL TONIGHT THE SEA FOG WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND WITH THE VISIBILITY DROPPING TO LESS THAN 1/2 MILE. DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TOWARDS SUNRISE AND THE FOG WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. LAZ051>055-TXZ215-120600- /O.NEW.KLCH.FG.Y.0007.100312T0200Z-100312T1200Z/ CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-JEFFERSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMERON...ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA... MORGAN CITY...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR 354 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010 ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE COAST WILL LIMIT VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1/2 MILE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AROUND SUNRISE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN... USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU. ++ $$ AFDBRO 1 +nbsp;AFDBRO+nbsp;| +nbsp;AFDHGX+nbsp;| +nbsp;AFDFWD+nbsp;| +nbsp;AFDLUB+nbsp;| AFDAKQ 1 +nbsp;AFDAKQ+nbsp;| Moved to New News System http://www.flhurricane.com/cgi-bin/cfhcnews?talkback+7+1+0+2002 7 2002 - [mac] 0 hurricane.jpg Will this Be the Year? http://www.flhurricane.com/cgi-bin/cfhcnews?talkback+6+1+57+2002 6 2002 - [mac] 57 hurricane.jpg Season Getting Near http://www.flhurricane.com/cgi-bin/cfhcnews?talkback+5+1+125+2002 5 2002 - [jc] 125 writingsonthewall.jpg National Hurricane Conference 2002 http://www.flhurricane.com/cgi-bin/cfhcnews?talkback+4+1+129+2002 4 2002 - [mac] 129 shuttle.jpg The Next Two Months http://www.flhurricane.com/cgi-bin/cfhcnews?talkback+3+1+56+2002 3 2002 - [mac] 56 lightning.jpg