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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Key West, FL (Florida Keys) Selection: |
| #1182786 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:06 AM 02.Jun.2024) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 404 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Currently - Modest deep layered ridging is aligned just off the Atlantic coast. However the story is not that simple. A surface through lower level ridge is centered off the Carolina coast. However, due to a weak southern stream shortwave trough, now across Cuba, the flow at 700 mb is nebulous and transitions to troughing through the mid and upper levels. So, despite the lower level ridging present, inhibition is now negligible with precipitable water likely trending upwards. Due to this shifting weather pattern there was quite a bit more convective activity through the overnight hours. This activity developed not only on old mainland sea breeze boundaries, but also on a number of maritime and lee side streamers coming off of the Bahamas. Dew points have crept up over the past 24 hours and are now in the lower 70s with temperatures remaining in the lower to mid 80s. Forecast - Over the next couple of days the previously mentioned surface high will gradually weaken as it stretches eastward into the Atlantic. As a result, winds will continue to trend downwards today. After this, and through much of the week, weak ridging will remain across Florida and the southeastern United States, resulting in local breezes ranging in the gentle to moderate range. Winds will peak in the evenings and lull in the morning. Regardless of any evolution of the flow aloft, the key point to make is that mid level ridging will remain absent and nebulous flow will remain at 700 mb. This along with moisture rich tropical air always just on our door step to the southeast and south and a surging and lulling surface wind field should result in periodic bouts of widely scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms. The primary triggers will be island cloud lines, maritime boundaries, and old South Florida seabreeze activity. For this reason, will maintain mid to high chance pops. Expect near to slightly above normal temperatures with dew points moving into the mid 70s. Mid week and beyond, the global models suggest a couple of stronger high frequency southern stream shortwave troughs will race eastward across our area. This is often reason enough to drive PoPs much higher. However surface ridging, while weakening, appears to remain across Florida. As a result, lower level forcing will be lack luster from a synoptic point of view. In addition, while the steering flow should shift more southerly, it is expected to be weak and not able to draw on deep tropical moisture in the Caribbean. This may be why PoP guidance has been middling at best. For now will maintain current forecast trends. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 High pressure centered off the Carolina coast will weaken as it elongates eastwards into the Atlantic. As a result, moderate to fresh easterly breezes this morning will gradually trend downwards over the next few days. Winds may pick up slightly around mid week as pressures fall in the western Gulf of Mexico. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Through 03/06Z, prevailing VFR conditions are forecast at both EYW and MTH. Scattered rain showers with moderate to heavy precipitation may develop near the terminals, but hi-res models do not suggest a specific time of shower formation. A cloud line may develop later in the day that might prompt MVFR conditions at EYW as well, but models do not agree on the timing or location. Thus, direct mention of MVFR to IFR conditions are left out of the TAFs. Showers developing into thunderstorms are possible throughout the TAF period. && .CLIMATE... On this day in day in Keys Weather History, in 1966 an F2 tornado unaffiliated with a tropical cyclone injured one and produced $25k in damage in Key West. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1182754 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:36 AM 02.Jun.2024) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1031 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1025 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 After a very quiet day across the Keys area, isolated to scattered showers have developed during the evening, with a cluster of thunderstorms over the offshore Gulf waters well north of the Lower Keys. This activity has largely avoided the island chain so far, but some areas should see measurable rainfall during the next several hours. Temperatures along the Keys have dropped into the lower to mid 80s, with dewpoints in the lower 70s, and winds on land from the east around 15 mph. Surface analysis depicts high pressure centered just east of the Outer Banks, with the Keys in a moderate gradient along the south side of this high. Aloft, weak troughing is present over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, between ridges over the western Atlantic and the southwestern Gulf. The 00Z Key West sounding showed the inversion rising and weakening during the previous 12 hours, but a fair amount of dry air remained in the mid levels, with PW near normal for the date at 1.57 inches. MIMIC-TPW satellite imagery shows similar estimated PWs immediately upstream over far South Florida and eastward into the Bahamas. Overnight, the slightly more moist airmass in place as compared to during the day on Saturday, combined with a bit of enhancement from the nearby troughing aloft, may allow for some further increase in shower activity across our region. Dry air in the mid levels will continue to be a challenge however, and should keep thunder isolated along the Keys overnight. Will leave the existing 40 percent PoPs unchanged for the overnight period. Otherwise, have updated the forecast to remove breezy evening wording. Temps appear to be on track for lows near 80 by morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1025 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Evening observations show E winds averaging between 14 and 18 knots along the reef and at Long Key C-MAN, with seas at Satan Shoal running just below 3 feet. Obs trends and the latest guidance suggest that winds will not likely increase much if any from current levels through the rest of the evening, and have replaced the Small Craft Advisory with a Small Craft Exercise Caution headline for all Keys waters with the late evening forecast update. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1025 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through Sunday afternoon. Shower coverage has increased somewhat across the region this evening, and there is a decent chance for showers in the vicinity of either terminal through the TAF period. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as well, however, chances of direct impact at a terminal are too low for inclusion in the TAFs at this time. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
