|
Show Area Forecast Discussion - Melbourne, FL (East Central Florida) Selection: |
| #1182813 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:42 AM 02.Jun.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 736 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New AVIATION, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 701 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Onshore moving showers are expected this morning near the Treasure Coast. Scattered lightning storms are expected this evening over the interior before pushing offshore of the Treasure Coast. E winds at 5-12kts will increase into the afternoon at 12-15kts with gusts to 20-24kts. VCTS is forecast after 20Z over the western interior and near the Treasure Coast between 23Z-05Z. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 507 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Today...High pressure centered off the NC coast early this morning will continue seaward and away from the area. An gradual easing of the pressure gradient will produce a little less wind than yesterday though the sea breeze circulation will enhance the onshore flow with gusts up to 25 mph esp at the coast this aftn. Increased moisture in the mid and upper levels will bring some cloudiness from the west. While in the low levels, marine stratocu will push onshore with isolated showers along the Treasure coast. The increased moisture will support 30-40% PoPs across southern and interior sections as the sea breeze pushes inland with a late collision over the far interior. Lowest rain chances will be over Volusia county. CAMs show another round of scattered storms pushing offshore the Treasure coast late evening into the overnight. This may be assocd with earlier storms over S/SW FL lifting NE and assocd outflow sparking add`l convection. Have drawn 30-40% PoPs south of the Cape for this possibility. Max temps remaining seasonable in the mid 80s coast and around 90 interior. Mon-Sat...A weak high pressure ridge axis will gradually settle southward from 30N lat Mon to south FL Thu-Fri as a weak frontal boundary pushes into the deep South supported by a deep upper cut-off low rotating into the Great Lakes. Moisture looks fairly limited so the daily 30-40% PoPs may be a bit generous. Have more confidence that max temperatures will continue a warming trend with lower 90s interior Mon reaching mid 90s Tue thru the end of the week. These low to mid 90s will spread to the east coast by late week as the sea breeze onset gets more and more delayed. This will also shift the daily sea breeze collisions to our (east) side of the peninsula. Provided there is sufficient moisture, scattered sea breeze storms may result but residual mid level dry air may produce strong storms, accompanied by gusty winds and of course lightning strikes which could spark add`l brush fires. This is the typical story as we transition to the wet season. Heat Risk will become a concern once again late this week with peak heat indices reaching 100-105 Thu-Fri and 102-107 on Sat. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 220 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Onshore moving showers are expected this morning near the Treasure Coast before scattered lightning storms develop this afternoon over the W interior along boundary collisions. E winds at 5-12kts will increase into the afternoon at 12-15kts with gusts to 20-24kts. TEMPO groups for SHRA/TSRA will likely be added later at KSUA/KISM as hi-res guidance comes into better agreement. && .MARINE... Issued at 507 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 High pressure offshore the Carolina coast this morning will continue seaward over the western Atlantic. A trailing ridge axis will extend westward across north Florida into midweek, maintaining the onshore flow. The ridge axis is forecast to then slip south across the waters late week. Conditions will be less than ideal today for small craft but conditions will become more favorable Monday and continue much of the upcoming week. ESE winds starting out near 15 knots this morning and choppy seas 4 to 5 feet will gradually improve through the afternoon. The onshore flow will decrease 7-10 knots tonight with slight enhancement of 12-14 knots each aftn near the coast behind the sea breeze. Seas generally 2-3 FT Tue-Thu. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 507 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 High pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to move away from the area while a trailing ridge axis extends westward to the southeast US coast through mid week. This will maintain an onshore flow, enhanced by the sea breeze each afternoon reaching 10-15 mph, gusting near 20 mph. Dispersion values will be Very Good and there will continue to be a concern for spread of any new or ongoing fires despite the fact that Red Flag conditions are not forecast. Min RH values will hold near 40% over the interior and 50-55% near the coast. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible each day. High temperatures will gradually warm each day, returning to the mid 90s interior by mid week and spreading to the east coast late week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 86 71 87 71 / 20 10 30 10 MCO 89 71 90 71 / 30 20 40 10 MLB 86 73 87 73 / 30 30 40 20 VRB 87 71 88 71 / 40 30 40 20 LEE 90 71 91 72 / 30 20 40 10 SFB 89 71 91 71 / 30 20 40 10 ORL 90 72 91 72 / 30 20 40 10 FPR 86 70 87 71 / 40 40 50 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1182797 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:21 AM 02.Jun.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 512 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 507 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Today...High pressure centered off the NC coast early this morning will continue seaward and away from the area. An gradual easing of the pressure gradient will produce a little less wind than yesterday though the sea breeze circulation will enhance the onshore flow with gusts up to 25 mph esp at the coast this aftn. Increased moisture in the mid and upper levels will bring some cloudiness from the west. While in the low levels, marine stratocu will push onshore with isolated showers along the Treasure coast. The increased moisture will support 30-40% PoPs across southern and interior sections as the sea breeze pushes inland with a late collision over the far interior. Lowest rain chances will be over Volusia county. CAMs show another round of scattered storms pushing offshore the Treasure coast late evening into the overnight. This may be assocd with earlier storms over S/SW FL lifting NE and assocd outflow sparking add`l convection. Have drawn 30-40% PoPs south of the Cape for this possibility. Max temps remaining seasonable in the mid 80s coast and around 90 interior. Mon-Sat...A weak high pressure ridge axis will gradually settle southward from 30N lat Mon to south FL Thu-Fri as a weak frontal boundary pushes into the deep South supported by a deep upper cut-off low rotating into the Great Lakes. Moisture looks fairly limited so the daily 30-40% PoPs may be a bit generous. Have more confidence that max temperatures will continue a warming trend with lower 90s interior Mon reaching mid 90s Tue thru the end of the week. These low to mid 90s will spread to the east coast by late week as the sea breeze onset gets more and more delayed. This will also shift the daily sea breeze collisions to our (east) side of the peninsula. Provided there is sufficient moisture, scattered sea breeze storms may result but residual mid level dry air may produce strong storms, accompanied by gusty winds and of course lightning strikes which could spark add`l brush fires. This is the typical story as we transition to the wet season. Heat Risk will become a concern once again late this week with peak heat indices reaching 100-105 Thu-Fri and 102-107 on Sat. && .MARINE... Issued at 507 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 High pressure offshore the Carolina coast this morning will continue seaward over the western Atlantic. A trailing ridge axis will extend westward across north Florida into midweek, maintaining the onshore flow. The ridge axis is forecast to then slip south across the waters late week. Conditions will be less than ideal today for small craft but conditions will become more favorable Monday and continue much of the upcoming week. ESE winds starting out near 15 knots this morning and choppy seas 4 to 5 feet will gradually improve through the afternoon. The onshore flow will decrease 7-10 knots tonight with slight enhancement of 12-14 knots each aftn near the coast behind the sea breeze. Seas generally 2-3 FT Tue-Thu. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 507 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 High pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to move away from the area while a trailing ridge axis extends westward to the southeast US coast through mid week. This will maintain an onshore flow, enhanced by the sea breeze each afternoon reaching 10-15 mph, gusting near 20 mph. Dispersion values will be Very Good and there will continue to be a concern for spread of any new or ongoing fires despite the fact that Red Flag conditions are not forecast. Min RH values will hold near 40% over the interior and 50-55% near the coast. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible each day. High temperatures will gradually warm each day, returning to the mid 90s interior by mid week and spreading to the east coast late week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 220 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Onshore moving showers are expected this morning near the Treasure Coast before scattered lightning storms develop this afternoon over the W interior along boundary collisions. E winds at 5-12kts will increase into the afternoon at 12-15kts with gusts to 20-24kts. TEMPO groups for SHRA/TSRA will likely be added later at KSUA/KISM as hi-res guidance comes into better agreement. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 86 71 87 71 / 20 10 30 10 MCO 89 71 90 71 / 30 20 40 10 MLB 86 73 87 73 / 30 30 40 20 VRB 87 71 88 71 / 40 30 40 20 LEE 90 71 91 72 / 30 20 40 10 SFB 89 71 91 71 / 30 20 40 10 ORL 90 72 91 72 / 30 20 40 10 FPR 86 70 87 71 / 40 40 50 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1182773 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:24 AM 02.Jun.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 219 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New AVIATION, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 220 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Onshore moving showers are expected this morning near the Treasure Coast before scattered lightning storms develop this afternoon over the W interior along boundary collisions. E winds at 5-12kts will increase into the afternoon at 12-15kts with gusts to 20-24kts. TEMPO groups for SHRA/TSRA will likely be added later at KSUA/KISM as hi-res guidance comes into better agreement. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Rest of Today-Tonight...High pressure drifts offshore into the western Atlantic into tonight, maintaining onshore flow through the period. A stout inversion above 850mb will keep us mostly dry, but enough moisture exists below this layer to support a marine stratocu deck. A few showers or storms will be possible in this layer overnight tonight along and offshore from the Treasure Coast. Otherwise, mostly dry. Winds will diminish after sunset this evening, though continued onshore flow will be enough to keep coastal areas in the lower to mid-70s. Sunday...As high pressure settles in over the western Atlantic, onshore flow eases, with winds under 10mph in the morning increasing to 10-15mph, with gusts to around 20mph, behind the sea breeze during the afternoon. Winds aloft will back westerly, advecting in higher moisture into the mid and upper levels. A less hostile environment aloft should allow for PoPs to reenter the forecast. Models are in disagreement about the coverage of any showers or storms Sunday afternoon, though a sea breeze collision is expected over the interior. Thus, have PoPs 30-50% tomorrow, with the highest PoPs over southern and western portions of the forecast area. Easing onshore flow will allow afternoon high temperatures to increase slightly, rising into the upper 80s along the coast and lower 90s inland. Sunday night, low temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s expected. Previous discussion.. Mon-Fri...A weak high pressure ridge axis will gradually settle southward from north FL Mon to south FL Thu- Fri. Moisture looks fairly limited so the daily 30-40% PoPs may be a bit generous. Have more confidence that max temperatures will continue a warming trend with lower 90s interior Mon reaching mid 90s Tue and beyond. Such low to mid 90s will spread to the east coast by late week as the sea breeze onset gets more and more delayed. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 934 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Predominantly VFR conditions, with increasing rain chances through the TAF period. Gusty easterly winds 10-15 kts this evening settle at around 5 kts 09Z, then pick back up to 10-15 kts along the coast around 14Z and inland after 18Z, with gusts to 20 kts possible but generally less than previous days. Increasing confidence for onshore moving ISO-SCT SHRA impacts at coastal terminals, so added northward progressing VCSH to KSUA-KMLB starting 14Z-18Z. Diurnal TSRA/SHRA expected near or west of KLEE around 20Z and push eastward through 00Z, then dissipate. Have VCTS at all inland terminals starting 20Z-21Z, but confidence in timing and coverage remains low, and TSRA/SHRA might not even make it to KSFB. Keeping KDAB/KTIX dry for now. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue through the evening hours, improving into tonight as high pressure settles in over the western Atlantic and winds diminish. Until then, onshore flow to around 20kts south of Sebastian Inlet, with 10-20kts elsewhere. Seas up to 6ft over the Treasure Coast waters will also diminish this evening, becoming 4-5ft. 3-5ft for the Atlantic waters north of this area. Showers and a few storms will be possible over the Treasure Coast waters overnight, especially towards morning. Boating conditions improve late weekend into next week, as easterly winds decrease to around 15kts or less. Will see winds veer southeasterly/southerly by late week. Daily shower and lightning storm chances, though PoPs remain around 30% or less most days and do not exceed 50% through the period. Seas 3-4ft Sunday becoming 2-3ft by Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Today...Sensitive fire weather conditions today, with breezy easterly winds 15 to 20mph and gusts up to around 30 mph. Will stay mostly dry through the overnight hours, though a few showers or storms will be possible along the Treasure Coast, especially towards morning. Min RH this afternoon between 35-45% over much of the area, with the driest conditions inland. Very good to excellent dispersion through sunset. Sunday-Early Next Week...Conditions improve slightly Sunday into early next week, as higher moisture creeps into the local area, keeping min RH values 40-50% over the interior and higher along the coast. Onshore flow will also diminish, though winds up to 15mph and gusts to 20mph are expected behind the sea breeze each afternoon. PoPs increase beginning Sunday, becoming up to 30-50%, with the highest chances over the interior. High temperatures will be near to slightly above normal in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Good to very good dispersion each afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 86 71 87 71 / 20 10 30 10 MCO 89 71 90 71 / 30 20 40 10 MLB 86 73 87 73 / 30 30 40 20 VRB 87 71 88 71 / 40 30 40 20 LEE 90 71 91 72 / 30 20 40 10 SFB 89 71 91 71 / 30 20 40 10 ORL 90 72 91 72 / 30 20 40 10 FPR 86 70 87 71 / 40 40 50 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1182750 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 AM 02.Jun.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 935 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 934 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Onshore flow and a sufficiently deep marine layer has started to whip up a few nocturnal sprinkles and light showers over the central Florida Atlantic waters, and even one inland south of Tradition, this past hour. Based on this trend, went ahead and bumped the northward progression of rain chances along the Treasure Coast through the overnight and early afternoon a little earlier. PoPs near Hobe Sound and Stuart increase to 20 pct around midnight, pushing northward through the night, reaching near Sebastian by morning and Melbourne by late morning. 30 pct PoPs arrive along the Treasure Coast by around 8 AM, pushing inland through the morning and reaching Okeechobee around noon. 00Z HREF has introduced a 0.5" QPF bull`s eye along the Treasure Coast between 8 AM and 2 PM, increasing confidence for showers and perhaps an isolated lightning storm, even if member models` convective development remains inconsistent. Rest of the forecast remains on track with no changes needed. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 934 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Predominantly VFR conditions, with increasing rain chances through the TAF period. Gusty easterly winds 10-15 kts this evening settle at around 5 kts 09Z, then pick back up to 10-15 kts along the coast around 14Z and inland after 18Z, with gusts to 20 kts possible but generally less than previous days. Increasing confidence for onshore moving ISO-SCT SHRA impacts at coastal terminals, so added northward progressing VCSH to KSUA-KMLB starting 14Z-18Z. Diurnal TSRA/SHRA expected near or west of KLEE around 20Z and push eastward through 00Z, then dissipate. Have VCTS at all inland terminals starting 20Z-21Z, but confidence in timing and coverage remains low, and TSRA/SHRA might not even make it to KSFB. Keeping KDAB/KTIX dry for now. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Rest of Today-Tonight...High pressure drifts offshore into the western Atlantic into tonight, maintaining onshore flow through the period. A stout inversion above 850mb will keep us mostly dry, but enough moisture exists below this layer to support a marine stratocu deck. A few showers or storms will be possible in this layer overnight tonight along and offshore from the Treasure Coast. Otherwise, mostly dry. Winds will diminish after sunset this evening, though continued onshore flow will be enough to keep coastal areas in the lower to mid-70s. Sunday...As high pressure settles in over the western Atlantic, onshore flow eases, with winds under 10mph in the morning increasing to 10-15mph, with gusts to around 20mph, behind the sea breeze during the afternoon. Winds aloft will back westerly, advecting in higher moisture into the mid and upper levels. A less hostile environment aloft should allow for PoPs to reenter the forecast. Models are in disagreement about the coverage of any showers or storms Sunday afternoon, though a sea breeze collision is expected over the interior. Thus, have PoPs 30-50% tomorrow, with the highest PoPs over southern and western portions of the forecast area. Easing onshore flow will allow afternoon high temperatures to increase slightly, rising into the upper 80s along the coast and lower 90s inland. Sunday night, low temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s expected. Previous discussion.. Mon-Fri...A weak high pressure ridge axis will gradually settle southward from north FL Mon to south FL Thu- Fri. Moisture looks fairly limited so the daily 30-40% PoPs may be a bit generous. Have more confidence that max temperatures will continue a warming trend with lower 90s interior Mon reaching mid 90s Tue and beyond. Such low to mid 90s will spread to the east coast by late week as the sea breeze onset gets more and more delayed. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue through the evening hours, improving into tonight as high pressure settles in over the western Atlantic and winds diminish. Until then, onshore flow to around 20kts south of Sebastian Inlet, with 10-20kts elsewhere. Seas up to 6ft over the Treasure Coast waters will also diminish this evening, becoming 4-5ft. 3-5ft for the Atlantic waters north of this area. Showers and a few storms will be possible over the Treasure Coast waters overnight, especially towards morning. Boating conditions improve late weekend into next week, as easterly winds decrease to around 15kts or less. Will see winds veer southeasterly/southerly by late week. Daily shower and lightning storm chances, though PoPs remain around 30% or less most days and do not exceed 50% through the period. Seas 3-4ft Sunday becoming 2-3ft by Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Today...Sensitive fire weather conditions today, with breezy easterly winds 15 to 20mph and gusts up to around 30 mph. Will stay mostly dry through the overnight hours, though a few showers or storms will be possible along the Treasure Coast, especially towards morning. Min RH this afternoon between 35-45% over much of the area, with the driest conditions inland. Very good to excellent dispersion through sunset. Sunday-Early Next Week...Conditions improve slightly Sunday into early next week, as higher moisture creeps into the local area, keeping min RH values 40-50% over the interior and higher along the coast. Onshore flow will also diminish, though winds up to 15mph and gusts to 20mph are expected behind the sea breeze each afternoon. PoPs increase beginning Sunday, becoming up to 30-50%, with the highest chances over the interior. High temperatures will be near to slightly above normal in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Good to very good dispersion each afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 70 86 70 87 / 10 20 20 30 MCO 70 89 71 90 / 0 30 20 40 MLB 73 86 72 87 / 10 30 30 40 VRB 72 87 71 88 / 20 40 40 40 LEE 70 90 72 91 / 0 30 10 40 SFB 70 89 71 91 / 10 30 20 40 ORL 71 90 72 91 / 0 30 10 40 FPR 71 86 69 88 / 20 40 40 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
