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The Atlantic after Michael

Posted: 04:49 PM 14 October 2018 | | Add Comment

Hurricane Michael will be one remembered for years to come for this decade for Florida. Although Irma, Matthew and Hermine (The other 3 hurricanes, and only ones from the decade) will be remembered, the raw violent nature of Michael will put that at the top, along with its impacts well inland. Post analysis may bring it up to Category 5 after all is said and done. Callaway, Tyndall, Mexico Beach, Cape San Blas and Panama City within Gulf and Bay counties are forever changed, as many areas around ti were also.

Our twitter feed is full of examples and response to it.

Beyond that Leslie made landfall in Portugal and brought damage to there, very unexpectedly.


Two low-chance areas are being watched, a 20% area in the West Caribbean (94L) and another area in the Central Atlantic with 10%. Neither have much model support, but there is a possibility for one or two more systems this season before all is said and done.

94L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 94L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 94L


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 94L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

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Major Hurricane Michael Approaches the Panhandle

Posted: 05:51 PM 05 October 2018 | 41 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 09:07 PM 11-Oct EDT

3AM EDT Update 10 October 2018
Michael is now an intensifying Cat 4 hurricane, and has a real chance to make Cat 5 before landfall later today. This is a historic hurricane, and unfortunately for many, its impacts will never be forgotten.



Those in evacuation zones who have been ordered to leave, you are being urged to do so *if it is still safe* Otherwise, it's bunker down. If avoiding storm surge by staying at a higher building level, remember that winds will be stronger the higher up one goes. Stay away from windows and anything that could become airborne projectiles in the event windows are blown out and/or roofs are blown away and/or walls collapse. If certain rooms are at risk for felled trees or telephone poles etc., consider avoiding those rooms altogether. The general safety protocols for surviving a tornado may apply (inner room - ideally not on a top floor).

Hurricane Michael Local Statement Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL AL142018
242 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 /142 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/
Quote:

This product covers
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA
Catastrophic storm surge and winds are expected from Michael. Hurricane Michael is now at category 4 hurricane. Michael is expected to make landfall as a category 4 along the Florida Panhandle Coast or Big Bend. This is an unprecedented event as there are no Category 4 storms on record to have made landfall along the Florida Panhandle coast. Michael is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge, widespread power outages that will last days to even more than a week in some areas, downed trees that will block access to roads and endanger individuals, structural damage to homes and businesses, isolated flash flooding and the potential for tornadoes. Trees falling on homes will become a dangerous and potentially deadly situation. If you have been ordered to evacuate by authorities, we urge you to do so. Early this morning is your last chance to move to a safer location.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible devastating impacts across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend coastline. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded from considerable floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
- Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted onshore and stranded.

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible devastating impacts across the Florida Panhandle, Western Big Bend, SW Georgia and SE Alabama. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable.
- Widespread power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible extensive impacts across the Florida Panhandle, Western Big Bend, SW Georgia and SE Alabama. Potential impacts include:
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out. Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited to significant impacts across Eastern Big Bend.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant impacts across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Potential impacts include:
- The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
- Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about. Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.



8PM EDT Update 9 October 2018
Michael is a strengthening major hurricane that has a high chance to make category 4 before landfall near Panama City Beach, FL tomorrow afternoon.

Those in the area are out of time to prepare as tonight conditions will start to deteriorate. Storm surge will be the most dangerous aspect of this hurricane.

Listen to local officials and media for information on your local area.



7AM EDT Update 9 October 2018

Because of the fast movement forecast, a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect along the southeastern coast of the United States from Fernandina Beach, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina. This may be extended a bit north later.

Michael is held at 90mph hurricane overnight with some affects from shear and dry air from the western side. Both of those factors for keeping it in check are diminishing today, recon reports within the last few minutes now show it starting another set of organizing again.

The system, despite that, is becoming better defined and will enter an area of less shear later today, at that point it is likely to undergo another round of strengthening, and a category 3 storm with 120mph is forecast for landfall in the Panhandle within the hurricane warning area. Most of the worst (but not all) of the surge and weather will be on the eastern side.

Evacuation orders are out for parts of the Panhandle and Big Bend Areas, pay attention to local media and officials for information for your particular area. If you are asked to evacuate, please do so. Conditions will start to deteriorate this evening, if not a little sooner in the hurricane warning area.st.

Those in the southeast may receive some strong wind, power outages, and surge as well after the storm makes landfall. Some coastal surge flooding may also occur along the east coast deepening on the prevailing wind direction and which direction the coast faces vs the wind.



11AM EDT Update 8 October 2018
Michael is now a hurricane, and a major hurricane is now forecast to landfall somewhere in the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday.

5AM Update 8 October 2018

Hurricane watches are now up from Al/FL Border east to Suwanee River. Tropical Storm watch east and south of there along the west coast of Florida to Anna Maria Island (Including Tampa Bay) for Michael, which is nearly a hurricane this morning with 70mph Winds. The official forecast takes Michael in as a cat 2 currently Wednesday Afternoon, however there is a real possibility that Michael will strengthen to a major category 3 hurricane before landfall (and the official Hurricane Center discussion calls that out). So prepare for that.

Listen to local media and officials for your area, and if you are asked to evacuate along the water please do so. The area forecast for landfall is extremely susceptible to storm surge particularly at the landfall point and east of it. In fact, A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Navarre Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay.

Since Michael is expected to reach hurricane status very soon, before it enters the Gulf, the government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
province of Pinar del Rio.



Noon EDT Update 7 September 2018
Satellite wind data indicate that the depression has strengthened
into Tropical Storm Michael. The maximum winds are estimated to be
40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate Michael.



10:45 AM EDT Update 7 September 2018
Tropical Depression 14 has formed in the Western Caribbean and Tropical Storm Warnings are up for Western Cuba and parts of the Yucatan.

Forecast models and the official suggest a hurricane hit for the Gulf coast (Panhandle) on Wednesday. The potential for rapid intensification exists, so it would be prudent to prepare for a potential major, and hope it stays a cat 1/2.

Florida governor Rick Scott has issued a state of emergency for Florida to open up resources to support anything that happens with what will be named Michael.


Original Update

September wrapped up very active, with 1 Major, 1 Cat Two, 1 Cat One, 4 Tropical Storms, 1 TD, and was the first month since 2008 (that's a lot of months) to have four simultaneous named storms in the Atlantic basin: Florence, Isaac, Helene and Joyce.

October is historically the month when points of origin pull in closer to home, and one of the more common ways we see tropical cyclones form during the month is from spinoffs of a Central American Gyre, which is a sprawling seasonal area of low pressure that can sometimes serve as a sort of disturbance factory. Like the name suggests, this gyre takes up shop over central America, and can last for up to several weeks.

The first disturbance to be Invest tagged on the Atlantic side has a high chance of becoming a named storm, with some chance of becoming significant, especially if allowed enough time before coming ashore. We have a Forecast Lounge now up for this one: 91L/FOURTEEN/MICHAEL Lounge.

Another Low associated with the parent gyre we are watching is just barely on the Pacific side of central America, and there is some tepid model support for it to cross over into the Caribbean or Gulf. In fact, there's a pretty decent shot that 91L and 97E do not end up being the last spinoff from the gyre, and will continue to update on any of these other potentials in the 2018 Forecast Lounge .

Elsewhere, Leslie continues hanging on meandering in the central Atlantic like a good September storm. ("Gone fishing!")

Michael Related Radars/Webcam recordings

Weather Stem (Webcams at schools in the area)

Storm Chaser Position Map

Michael Satellite

Bay county traffic cameras

Wisconsin Michael Satellite (W Track and radar)

Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

Florida Panhandle Media/Links

WJHG TV 7 (NBC) Panama City Beach, FL

WMBB TV 13 (ABC) Panama City Beach, FL / My Panhandle

WCTV 6 (CBS) Tallahassee, FL

WTXL 27 (ABC) Tallahassee, FL

WTWC-DT2 49 (Fox) Tallahassee, FL

WTWC 40 (NBC) Tallahassee, FL

WEAR TV 3 (ABC) Pensacola, FL


Newspapers Panama City Beach News Herald

Tallahassee Democrat


Radio (some)

News Talk 94.5 WFLA Panama City Beach

]https://wflafm.iheart.com/ 100.7 WFLA News Radio Tallahassee, FL]

Power Outage

Florida Power Outage Map

Alabama Power Outage Map

Michael Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Michael - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Michael


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float14latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Michael (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Michael (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Michael

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Michael
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Michael -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Leslie Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Leslie - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Leslie


stormplotthumb_13.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float13latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Leslie (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Leslie (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Leslie

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Leslie
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Leslie -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Nadine Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Nadine - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Nadine


stormplotthumb_15.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Nadine (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Nadine (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Nadine

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Nadine
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Nadine -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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End Of September

Posted: 07:25 AM 30 September 2018 | | Add Comment

The end of the month has come and the main impacts were from Florence and a some from Kirk. Florence however remains the bigger story, with some areas it affected still seeing flooding.

Leslie remains in the Atlantic, potentially a long-lived system that is unlikely to affect any land (At least anytime soon). It will need to be monitored to see where it eventually winds up, but could move out to sea to the north or veer back east.

October is where we begin to move the attention back closer in toward areas such as the Bahamas, West Caribbean, and Gulf. And the next potential area to watch very closely is probably near the West Caribbean, which may show up this coming weekend.

Beyond that Rosa in the East Pacific is forecast to make landfall in Mexico along Baja California and potentially impact Arizona. Mark Sudduth at Hurricanetrack.com is heading out to check that situation out.

Caribbean Forecast Lounge

Hurricane Rosa Thread

Invest 91L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 91L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 91L


stormplotthumb_14.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float14latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 91L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 91L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 91L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 91L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 91L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Leslie Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Leslie - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Leslie


stormplotthumb_13.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float13latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Leslie (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Leslie (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Leslie

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Leslie
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Leslie -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)



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Atlantic Revs Back Up - And Getting Closer to Land

Posted: 03:28 PM 20 September 2018 | 6 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 02:37 PM 26-Sep EDT

4AM ET Update 26 September 2018
Kirk underwent tropical cyclone regeneration over the past 24 hours and Advisories are resuming. As winds are already blowing at or above 40 MPH and the storm is now also much closer to the Lesser Antilles, this includes Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings.

Elsewhere, Leslie is undergoing a rapid merging and regeneration. As enough of her core has remained intact, the cyclone is expected to keep the same name, and advisories are likely to resume as soon as later today. Leslie may become a very powerful tropical and/or hybrid cyclone and stay with us for quite a while, possibly racking up sizeable ACE points for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season, but fortunately doing so well away from most land.

Invest 98L is passing by the Carolinas, adding to the influx of moisture in the region and reigniting flooding woes. The weak Low now has only a modest chance of becoming classified, and is likely to zip out to sea by Friday, either way.


4PM ET Update 22 September 2018
A tropical cornucopia of systems are now filling the screens as we close out the end of an already very active September.

With this update we now have two new Tropical Cyclones: TD ELEVEN, located about 450 miles east of the Windward Islands, and also Tropical Storm Kirk, located in the far eastern Atlantic.

There are another six Areas of Interest coming up, two of which may become subtropical or tropical cyclones by the early part of next week (98L between Bermuda and the Carolinas, plus also the large, non-tropical Low in the central Atlantic).

Despite forecasts for a near-to-below-average year, September seems to have made other plans. We now already have had six named storms this month. The record for named storms in any one month in the Atlantic going back though known history is eight, which has occurred five times: Oct 1950, Sep 2002, Aug 2004, Sep 2010, and most recently Aug 2012. Two more names this month would tie that record, three would break it.

Original Entry


The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially runs through the end of November and we have several reminders of that today. Indications are strong that the last ten days of this month will likely not go out quietly, with several lows and a couple African Easterly Waves already on the radar.

Two of these features in particular have already been Invest tagged, 97L and 98L. Of these two, 98L appears to be organizing rapidly today, with maximum sustained winds already to tropical storm force approaching the island nation of Bermuda. This system is especially interesting, as it looks to have been spawned in part from an infusion of energy from x-Florence.

Main page mapping and links will be coming soon. Meanwhile, you can also track model outputs and more with us in the Forecast Lounge:

99L (Now Tropical Storm Kirk) Forecast Lounge

98L Forecast Lounge

97L (Now TD ELEVEN) Forecast Lounge

Tropical Depression Eleven Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 11 - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 11


stormplotthumb_11.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float11latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 11 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 11 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 11

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 11
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 11 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Tropical Storm Kirk Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 12L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 12L


stormplotthumb_12.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float12latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 12L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 12L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 12L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 12L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 12L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Leslie Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Leslie - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Leslie


stormplotthumb_13.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float13latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Leslie (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Leslie (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Leslie

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Leslie
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Leslie -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

98L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 98L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 98L


stormplotthumb_14.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float14latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 98L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 98L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 98L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 98L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 98L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Charleston, SC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA

Power Outage Maps: South Carolina Power Outage Map North Carolina Power Outage Map Virginia Power Outage Map

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Florence and Isaac

Posted: 07:42 AM 11 September 2018 | 15 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 09:54 PM 16-Sep EDT

4PM Update 16 September 2018


Slow moving Florence continues unleashing Harvey-like rainfall over much of North and South Carolina, breaking the all-time record for tropical cyclone rainfall in at least North Carolina, and closing in on even national records.

As of 10AM, Wilmington had set an all-time annual rainfall total, at 86.79" (with several months yet to go). The previous annual record for the city was 83.65" set way back in 1877.

Current flood situation has 8 rivers at Major Flood Stage, 8 at Moderate. By Wednesday the forecast is calling for an additional 15 (23 total) rivers in Major Flood Stage, and an additional 5 in Moderate (13 total).

North Carolina transportation authorities continue advising road travelers to go around the state entirely.

Elsewhere, the remnants of Isaac are being tracked as an Invest (no new Invest number, keeping the same name). This area of disturbed weather has continued to show some signs of organization despite a less than ideal environment for redevelopment, and interests in the northwest Caribbean may want to keep watch. Pockets of heavy rains and gusts to tropical storm force are already occurring.

95L has pushed into northern Mexico, after helping deluge parts of coastal south Texas. Joyce and Helene are becoming more fully post-tropical at high latitudes near the Azores.
-Ciel


7AM Update 13 September 2018

Florence looks a bit weaker since last night, but the south side has actually improved overnight, setting it up to maintain or strengthen itself up to landfall, forward motion will begin to slow down today as it approaches the Carolinas. All preparations should have been finished yesterday, as conditions will gradually worsen in the warning areas today, and worsen quickly in the evening.



6PM Update 12 September 2018
Florence has weakened to a category 3 storm today, but the wind field has greatly expanded, meaning the big issue will be the storm surge. Large wind fields and strong winds create a massive set of issues, and will cause rivers to pile up or flow backwards in some cases at times.

Also Subtropical Storm Joyce has formed in the North Atlantic, no threat to land, but currently 4 active Atlantic systems, we could potentially have 5 with the other areas in play.





11PM Update 11 September 2018
Tomorrow, Wednesday, is the last full day to prepare in North and South Carolina. Use it wisely.

Florence is still a major Category 4 hurricane heading west northwest, tomorrow it will move the fastest then slow down as it approaches the coast on Thursday, do not focus on the exact track, but beware anywhere in the cone could feel hurricane force impacts either from wind, rain, surge, or all 3.

If local officials asked for you to evacuate, please do so.

** It is important for folks to realize that significant impacts extend well away from the center of Florence, and serious hazards such as a dangerous storm surge and flooding rains will cover a large area regardless of exactly where the center moves and that there is here is substantial uncertainty in the 3-5 track forecast..**

For information for your particular area pay attention to local media and officials.

For Isaac:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Dominica. The Hurricane Watch for Dominica has been discontinued.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Martinique and Guadeloupe. The Hurricane Watch for Martinique and
Guadeloupe has been discontinued.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Saba and St. Eustatius.


9PM Update 11 September 2018
Some interesting changes today with the models, but otherwise the forecast track remains the same. Because of the uncertainty those who have evacuation orders should heed them, even in South Carolina as things could change quickly for you there, but the entire warning area should prepare.



Florence's eye and structure has expanded today, and recon will soon find if the strength has gone up or not . Storm Surge is likely a massive threat with this hurricane for many areas as it is expected to slow down forward motion right before landfall.

Original Update
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, and the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, and the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light, Virginia, and for the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort.

Florence still approaches, and it appears somewhere near the SC/NC border with the potential to go south toward Charleston OR up to the outer banks as a large category 4 storm Thursday night or very early Friday morning and then potentially slow down. Therefore: A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the east coast of the United States from Edisto Beach, South Carolina, northward to the North Carolina-Virginia border, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

Since the threat of storm surge with such a large, powerful hurricane is extreme: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the east coast of the United States from Edisto Beach, South Carolina (Just orth of Hilton Head Island) northward to the North Carolina-Virginia border, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

In Hawaii Olivia has Tropical Storm Warnings for the majority of the sate, including Oahu and islands east, and Watches for the islands west of there.

There's also Isaac and Helene and 95L that has a 60% chance for development that could impact Texas

Links below: Much more to come later.

Please consult Local officials and local media for the best information for your particular area.

Sites like these are good for deeper dives into the information, but no replacement for official sources!

Check out our twitter feed using the link at the bottom left.

For Florence:
Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Charleston, SC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA

Power Outage Maps: South Carolina Power Outage Map North Carolina Power Outage Map Virginia Power Outage Map



Eastern NC/OBX/Hampton Roads Media:

North Carolina Power Outage Map

Star News Online (Wilmington)

Outer Banks Sentinel

Hampton Roads Pilot

WWAY TV 3 Wilmington, NC (ABC)

WECT TV 6 Wilmington, NC (NBC)

Fox Wilmington (FOX)

WILM TV 10 Wilmington, NC (CBS)

WITN 7 - Eastern North Carolina TV (NBC)

WCTI 12 - Eastern North Carolina (ABC)

WNCT TV 9 - Eastern North Carolina (CBS)

Wavy 10 (NBC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA TV

WTKR 3 (CBS) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA

WVEC 13 (ABC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA
NCDOT Travel info map, cameras, closures, etc
South Carolina DOT Evacuations/Contraflow
South Carolina traffic maps/Traffic Cameras

Webcams:
Surf City pier, Topsail Island, NC
Myrtle Beach


FLhurricane webcam and radar recordings for Florence -- Lots of Cameras linked here

Frying Pan Shoals Live Stream

Florence Flood Event tide sensors from USGS.

NC Regional COD Satellite

Coastal South Carolina Media:

Myrtle Beach Sun News

Charleston Post and Courier

94.3 WSC Charleston News Radio


Power Outage Map: South Carolina Power Outage Map

For Isaac:
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes


Florence Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Florence - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Florence


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float6latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Florence (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Florence (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Florence

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Florence
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Florence -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Isaac Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Isaac - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Isaac


stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float9latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Isaac (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Isaac (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Isaac

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Isaac
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Isaac -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Helene Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Helene - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Helene


stormplotthumb_8.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float8latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Helene (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Helene (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Helene

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Helene
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Helene -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Joyce Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Joyce - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Joyce


stormplotthumb_10.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float10latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Joyce (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Joyce (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Joyce

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Joyce
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Joyce -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

97L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 97L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 97L


stormplotthumb_11.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float11latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 97L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 97L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 97L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 97L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 97L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Facebook Update Posted
02:45 pm 15-Oct-2018 EDT

Mark Sudduth Oct 15 Update (First since Michael)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vq79BwjNQlQ

Facebook Update Posted
01:07 pm 13-Oct-2018 EDT

Hurricane Leslie making a final run of it today - all the way to Portugal- while beginning to undergo merger with a front and extra-tropical transition. Leslie, it's been real. And a really long time reading your advisories..

Facebook Update Posted
11:11 pm 11-Oct-2018 EDT

From Mark Sudduth/Hurricane track. Unmanned gopro recording of Mexico beach across the street from the (now former) Toucan's- Mexico Beach, Florida during the height of the storm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3ofAJSqpLM

Facebook Update Posted
10:41 pm 11-Oct-2018 EDT

https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/michael/index.html#17/29.76508/-85.40288
After Michael satellite photos. One of the most striking things is new cuts in St. Joseph's Peninsula (now an island) along Cape San Blas rd.

Facebook Update Posted
08:05 pm 11-Oct-2018 EDT

So far About 1.2 Million power outages reported from Michael

Facebook Update Posted
03:52 pm 11-Oct-2018 EDT

Michael's inland journey continues. Trees down all along its path From FL, GA, SC, NC, well into Virginia as well as Flash Flooding in NC and as far north as Roanoke, VA reported.

Facebook Update Posted
08:14 am 11-Oct-2018 EDT

Power outage map as of 8AM
more detail at https://poweroutage.us/

Facebook Update Posted
08:17 pm 10-Oct-2018 EDT

Reports from some of those who were there in Panama City. Including those who have went to multiple large hurricanes. The most violent system they have been in, and the whole city looks like a nuke was dropped on it and the damage is very widespread. Particularly in Panama City Proper and points east. Some of the cell networks are not operating or are extremely spotty.

Facebook Update Posted
03:27 pm 10-Oct-2018 EDT

Mexico Beach, Fl homes under water - you can really make out both the surge and wind damage in this https://twitter.com/WFLAJosh/status/1050098823194963968

Facebook Update Posted
01:44 pm 10-Oct-2018 EDT

Hurricane Michael makes landfall at Mexico City Beach, FL as a cat 4 with 155mph winds and 919mb of pressure. 3rd strongest US Landfall on record.

Facebook Update Posted
11:45 am 10-Oct-2018 EDT

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Extreme Wind Warning
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1111 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2018

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a

* Extreme Wind Warning for...
Gulf County in the Panhandle of Florida...
Southern Bay County in the Panhandle of Florida...
Southwestern Franklin County in Big Bend of Florida...

* Until 215 PM EDT/115 PM CDT/.

* At 1109 AM EDT/1009 AM CDT/, National Weather Service Doppler
radar indicated extreme winds in excess of 130 mph, associated
with the eyewall of Hurricane Michael, were moving onshore. THIS
IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Treat these imminent extreme winds as if a tornado
was approaching and move immediately to the safe room in your
shelter. Take action now to protect your life!

2018 Storm Forum
MikeC (24 replies)
Outlook for 2018 and Numbers
The Tropics Today
Robert (4 replies)
Tropical wave
cieldumort (1 reply)
Early July Gulf Low
2018 Forecast Lounge
cieldumort (38 replies)
Michael Lounge
cieldumort (5 replies)
Leslie Lounge
CFHC 2018
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