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Flood Emergencies in N. Carolina with up to a record 40" of rain that's still falling. Elsewhere, watching Invest Isaac closely in NW Car.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 5 (Florence) , Major: 364 (Maria) Florida - Any: 374 (Irma) Major: 374 (Irma)
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Florence and Isaac

Posted: 07:42 AM 11 September 2018 | 15 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 09:54 PM 16-Sep EDT

4PM Update 16 September 2018


Slow moving Florence continues unleashing Harvey-like rainfall over much of North and South Carolina, breaking the all-time record for tropical cyclone rainfall in at least North Carolina, and closing in on even national records.

As of 10AM, Wilmington had set an all-time annual rainfall total, at 86.79" (with several months yet to go). The previous annual record for the city was 83.65" set way back in 1877.

Current flood situation has 8 rivers at Major Flood Stage, 8 at Moderate. By Wednesday the forecast is calling for an additional 15 (23 total) rivers in Major Flood Stage, and an additional 5 in Moderate (13 total).

North Carolina transportation authorities continue advising road travelers to go around the state entirely.

Elsewhere, the remnants of Isaac are being tracked as an Invest (no new Invest number, keeping the same name). This area of disturbed weather has continued to show some signs of organization despite a less than ideal environment for redevelopment, and interests in the northwest Caribbean may want to keep watch. Pockets of heavy rains and gusts to tropical storm force are already occurring.

95L has pushed into northern Mexico, after helping deluge parts of coastal south Texas. Joyce and Helene are becoming more fully post-tropical at high latitudes near the Azores.
-Ciel


7AM Update 13 September 2018

Florence looks a bit weaker since last night, but the south side has actually improved overnight, setting it up to maintain or strengthen itself up to landfall, forward motion will begin to slow down today as it approaches the Carolinas. All preparations should have been finished yesterday, as conditions will gradually worsen in the warning areas today, and worsen quickly in the evening.



6PM Update 12 September 2018
Florence has weakened to a category 3 storm today, but the wind field has greatly expanded, meaning the big issue will be the storm surge. Large wind fields and strong winds create a massive set of issues, and will cause rivers to pile up or flow backwards in some cases at times.

Also Subtropical Storm Joyce has formed in the North Atlantic, no threat to land, but currently 4 active Atlantic systems, we could potentially have 5 with the other areas in play.





11PM Update 11 September 2018
Tomorrow, Wednesday, is the last full day to prepare in North and South Carolina. Use it wisely.

Florence is still a major Category 4 hurricane heading west northwest, tomorrow it will move the fastest then slow down as it approaches the coast on Thursday, do not focus on the exact track, but beware anywhere in the cone could feel hurricane force impacts either from wind, rain, surge, or all 3.

If local officials asked for you to evacuate, please do so.

** It is important for folks to realize that significant impacts extend well away from the center of Florence, and serious hazards such as a dangerous storm surge and flooding rains will cover a large area regardless of exactly where the center moves and that there is here is substantial uncertainty in the 3-5 track forecast..**

For information for your particular area pay attention to local media and officials.

For Isaac:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Dominica. The Hurricane Watch for Dominica has been discontinued.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Martinique and Guadeloupe. The Hurricane Watch for Martinique and
Guadeloupe has been discontinued.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Saba and St. Eustatius.


9PM Update 11 September 2018
Some interesting changes today with the models, but otherwise the forecast track remains the same. Because of the uncertainty those who have evacuation orders should heed them, even in South Carolina as things could change quickly for you there, but the entire warning area should prepare.



Florence's eye and structure has expanded today, and recon will soon find if the strength has gone up or not . Storm Surge is likely a massive threat with this hurricane for many areas as it is expected to slow down forward motion right before landfall.

Original Update
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, and the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, and the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light, Virginia, and for the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort.

Florence still approaches, and it appears somewhere near the SC/NC border with the potential to go south toward Charleston OR up to the outer banks as a large category 4 storm Thursday night or very early Friday morning and then potentially slow down. Therefore: A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the east coast of the United States from Edisto Beach, South Carolina, northward to the North Carolina-Virginia border, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

Since the threat of storm surge with such a large, powerful hurricane is extreme: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the east coast of the United States from Edisto Beach, South Carolina (Just orth of Hilton Head Island) northward to the North Carolina-Virginia border, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

In Hawaii Olivia has Tropical Storm Warnings for the majority of the sate, including Oahu and islands east, and Watches for the islands west of there.

There's also Isaac and Helene and 95L that has a 60% chance for development that could impact Texas

Links below: Much more to come later.

Please consult Local officials and local media for the best information for your particular area.

Sites like these are good for deeper dives into the information, but no replacement for official sources!

Check out our twitter feed using the link at the bottom left.

For Florence:
Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Charleston, SC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA

Power Outage Maps: South Carolina Power Outage Map North Carolina Power Outage Map Virginia Power Outage Map



Eastern NC/OBX/Hampton Roads Media:

North Carolina Power Outage Map

Star News Online (Wilmington)

Outer Banks Sentinel

Hampton Roads Pilot

WWAY TV 3 Wilmington, NC (ABC)

WECT TV 6 Wilmington, NC (NBC)

Fox Wilmington (FOX)

WILM TV 10 Wilmington, NC (CBS)

WITN 7 - Eastern North Carolina TV (NBC)

WCTI 12 - Eastern North Carolina (ABC)

WNCT TV 9 - Eastern North Carolina (CBS)

Wavy 10 (NBC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA TV

WTKR 3 (CBS) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA

WVEC 13 (ABC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA
NCDOT Travel info map, cameras, closures, etc
South Carolina DOT Evacuations/Contraflow
South Carolina traffic maps/Traffic Cameras

Webcams:
Surf City pier, Topsail Island, NC
Myrtle Beach


FLhurricane webcam and radar recordings for Florence -- Lots of Cameras linked here

Frying Pan Shoals Live Stream

Florence Flood Event tide sensors from USGS.

NC Regional COD Satellite

Coastal South Carolina Media:

Myrtle Beach Sun News

Charleston Post and Courier

94.3 WSC Charleston News Radio


Power Outage Map: South Carolina Power Outage Map

For Isaac:
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes


Florence Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Florence - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Florence


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float6latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Florence (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Florence (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Florence

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Florence
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Florence -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Isaac Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Isaac - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Isaac


stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float9latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Isaac (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Isaac (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Isaac

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Isaac
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Isaac -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Helene Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Helene - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Helene


stormplotthumb_8.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float8latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Helene (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Helene (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Helene

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Helene
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Helene -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Joyce Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Joyce - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Joyce


stormplotthumb_10.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float10latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Joyce (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Joyce (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Joyce

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Joyce
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Joyce -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

95L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 95L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 95L


stormplotthumb_11.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float11latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 95L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 95L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 95L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 95L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 95L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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Florence, Olivia, 95L, Isaac, Helene. Dangerous Week.

Posted: 05:26 AM 06 September 2018 | 20 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 04:54 PM 12-Sep EDT

9:30 PM EDT 10 September 2018


Florence is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle tonight, which will temporarily halt deepening (and max wind speed increases - could even weaken a little), but this is a normal part of a mature hurricane's nature, and will likely help lead to an overall increase in size, with pressure falls/wind speed increases resuming after.

There are several things to fear with Florence. Those along and just inland along the coast of her track need to leave evac zones promptly, as the surge potential is deadly high - even well inland (Say nothing of the winds). Those further inland will contend with a prolonged duration catastrophic wind event and inland flooding. Comparisons being made for a potential Hazel or Katrina ... that then slows down or even sits in place ... are not hyperbolic.

Elsewhere, Invest 95L approaching the west to northwest Gulf of Mexico is odds-on to become a tropical storm, or at least a T.D. And potentially a very wet one. This could bring abundant rain to a portion of the country that has already seen flooding over the past week or so. The next name on the list in the Atlantic is Joyce. Watches and Warnings may be issued at any time.

In the central Pacific, Olivia is now a very strong Tropical Storm, approaching the islands from the east, and likely to make a more-or-less direct hit on the archipelago. The mountains of these islands really squeeze out the precip of even passing afternoon showers, and thus, deadly flash flooding, rock and mudslides are a huge risk.

Isaac weakened some today, the smaller cyclone being battered by some shear and in the vicinity of some dry air. Still forecast to impact the Antilles by Thursday night as a very strong tropical storm.

In the far eastern Atlantic, Helene is still expected to turn north away from land, for now.
-Ciel

9:30 PM EDT 9 September 2018
Issac will likely become a hurricane tonight, Helene already did today.

An area in the West Caribbean has a 30% chance to develop in the Gulf of Mexico and may impact Texas late this week.

And area near the Azores has a 40% chance to develop.

Isaac likely will impact the lesser Antilles this week.

Helene is likely to stay out to sea.

And Florence seems to be zoning in on North Carolina for a major impact Thursday night.



4:30 AM EDT 9 September 2018
Recon dropsonde data from Florence was assimilated by the 0z model runs last night. There is simply no good news that came out from the improved forecasts, outside of increased confidence in the reliability of the NHC forecast. But one which is ugly: the likelihood of a landfalling Major next week somewhere along the southeast coast (and looking more and more like South or North Carolina, but still too early to say for sure - don't even let your guard down just yet in N Florida, Georgia, etc.).

This is a "Red Alert" for those who live in the NHC Cone of Uncertainty. Take all the time you need right now to protect life and property. The NHC forecast is looking increasingly likely. In the event the forecast verifies, the last thing you want is to be rushed.

Elsewhere, dropsonde data was also assimilated into the model runs on Olivia in the eastern Pacific, also resulting only in more confidence of the existing NHC forecast there.
-Ciel


2:00 PM EDT 8 September 2018
Invaluable data from this morning's non-tasked recon mission into the cyclone, timely data from a solid microwave satellite pass, and greatly improved structure in conventional satellite, all suggest that Florence is primed to enter Rapid Intensification. Odds favor an intensification phase ensuing later today, perhaps especially so overnight, and it is not out of the question that Florence is a significant hurricane once again by late tonight, and maybe even a Major by Monday morning.

This improved structure, with better vertical alignment and hints at deepening convection, all point to the cyclone perhaps being able to better feel the gentle pull to round the southwest corner of the High building in to her north and northeast. A slightly rightward (less west) shift in several of the models today has already occurred, and this looks more possible (could be verifying before our very eyes). Now the bad news - the High is still strong and stubborn, and even a trend to the right does not necessarily mean a trip out to sea prior to landfall/s later next week, and no one along the east coast should be letting ones guard down.
-Ciel

8:30 AM EDT 8 September 2018
Florence still generally moving west, and regaining some strength slowly today, but won't really gain much until a few days from now. Models still have a wide spread from Florida to out to sea, but seem to be favoring near the SC/NC border. Shifts are expected, but which direction is unsure. Everyone from Florida to New Jersey should be watching Florence closely. Where will it go? It's all a guess at this point, check out the Forecast Lounge for some thoughts and models.

A NOAA P3 plane is out sampling the air around Florence to help with forecasts starting today.

Helene has prompted a hurricane watch for the Cabo Verde islands with the new forecast.

T#9 is likely to become Isaac sometime today.

Olivia is still forecast to move over the Hawaiian islands as a tropical storm.




6:30 AM EDT 7 September 2018
Florence has weakened overnight, but is forecast to move into a much more favorable area for development in the next 2-3 days. In the meantime that unfortunately means it will likely get to move more west than north (and maybe even slightly south) as the ridging above the system builds.

All of the main 3 model families GFS, Euro, and UKMET that folks are watching have shifted left, more west, with the likelihood of a US impact going up. However it is still too early to tell exactly where the storm will wind up, other than those from Florida all the way to New England should monitor Florence. Only a fraction of the ensembles take it out to sea at this point.

Between Georgia and Virginia in particular is the general area where most of the models converge right now, but that may shift south or north. If the model timelines remain relatively consistent, direct impacts could be felt around Thursday of next week.

Beyond this, both 92L and 93L are at 90% to develop in the next day or so, and those will also need to be watched, but a lot of their future track depends on where Florence winds up.

Two other U.S. threats we are watching - Olivia in the Pacific as a potential threat to Hawaii, and also 26W, which is forecast to hit Guam as a Super Typhoon.

Original Update


September continues producing very high Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE, in both the Atlantic and Central-Eastern Pacific basins, with multiple risks for the U.S. and several of our neighbors. Now that Gordon is well-inland and weakening, but not without a continuing rain threat for the middle of the country, our attention quickly turns to several others potentially just as, if not more, significant tropical threats. The biggest of these being Hurricane Florence in the Atlantic, and Hurricane Olivia in the Pacific.

In the Atlantic, Florence, most recently a powerful Cat 4 Major that is now on a weakening trend in the short term, has the forecasters at NHC doing double time to nail down her future track, with this morning's update shifting more to the west, and a little bit closer to mainland United States.

In the Pacific, Olivia, recently on a strengthening trend again, is forecast to change from her present west-northwestward heading to nearly due west, with increasing concern for potential impacts on the Hawaiian islands early to middle of next week.

Elsewhere, way east in the Atlantic we are also following Invest 92L, which will likely become EIGHT at any time today or tomorrow, as well as yet another vigorous wave about to roll off the west coast of Africa.

Join us in the Forecast Lounge as we delve into analysis of various model outputs on each of these features. We'll see you there!


Florence Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Florence - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Florence


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float6latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Florence (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Florence (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Florence

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Florence
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Florence -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Isaac Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Isaac - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Isaac


stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float9latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Isaac (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Isaac (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Isaac

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Isaac
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Isaac -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Helene Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Helene - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Helene


stormplotthumb_8.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float8latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Helene (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Helene (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Helene

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Helene
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Helene -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

95L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 95L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 95L


stormplotthumb_10.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float10latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 95L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 95L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 95L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 95L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 95L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

96L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 96L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 96L


stormplotthumb_11.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float11latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 96L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 96L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 96L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 96L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 96L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)



For Florence:
Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Charleston, SC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA

Power Outage Maps: South Carolina Power Outage Map North Carolina Power Outage Map Virginia Power Outage Map

Coastal South Carolina Media:

Myrtle Beach Sun News

Charleston Post and Courier

94.3 WSC Charleston News Radio


Power Outage Map: South Carolina Power Outage Map
Eastern NC/OBX/Hampton Roads Media:

North Carolina Power Outage Map

Star News Online (Wilmington)

Outer Banks Sentinel

Hampton Roads Pilot

WWAY TV 3 Wilmington, NC (ABC)

WECT TV 6 Wilmington, NC (NBC)

Fox Wilmington (FOX)

WILM TV 10 Wilmington, NC (CBS)

WITN 7 - Eastern North Carolina TV (NBC)

WCTI 12 - Eastern North Carolina (ABC)

WNCT TV 9 - Eastern North Carolina (CBS)

Wavy 10 (NBC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA TV

WTKR 3 (CBS) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA

WVEC 13 (ABC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA

NCDOT Travel info map, closures, etc

For Isaac:
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Article Icon

Tropical Storm Gordon Approaching North Gulf Coast

Posted: 08:12 AM 03 September 2018 | 14 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 11:25 PM 04-Sep EDT

7PM EDT Update 4 September 2018
Gordon is now a high-end Tropical Storm with maximum sustained winds in a few spots of about 70MPH. Recon is heading back in to see if any additional changes in intensity have occurred.

The cyclone may tighten up right before and/or into and/or just after landfall. This is to say, Gordon may become a more fully hurricane type of tropical cyclone at any time over the next six hours or so. A T.C. ramping up a full category into landfall is hardly unprecedented, and those in the Hurricane Warning should take it seriously, preparing for the worst, hoping for the best. Preparations should now be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.

As it is, clean doppler velocity scans at around 10,000' this this afternoon have been upwards of 90 MPH, and it is possible that Gordon will begin efficiently transferring these rates to the surface, at least in gusts. Wind gusts this high can cause significant damage to roofs, topple trees, snap power lines, roll trailers, etc.

During and after landfall, dangerous storm surge of up to three or four feet is expected. Surge this high can easily lift very heavy automobiles and send them uncontrollably up-current.

After landfall, Gordon's forward movement is forecast to slow down markedly, and both flash flooding and still some wind damage is likely well inland. Be prepared for power outages that may take some time to come back online. At least three days non-perishable food and many gallons of drinkable water per person always a good idea.

At least a couple of tornadoes are likely. Tropical cyclone tornadoes often strike with little or no warning. These tend to be EF 0s and 1s. But not always.

NHC:
Quote:

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Shell Beach to Dauphin Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of Shell Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River
* East of Dauphin Island to Navarre

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River, including Lake Pontchartrain
* Alabama-Florida Border to Okaloosa-Walton County Line



-Ciel

7AM EDT Update 4 September 2018
Tropical Storm Gordon has held steady overnight and is making its run toward the Mississippi Gulf coast, most of the wind and convection associated with Gordon is on the east (sometimes well to the east) of the center of circulation, which has been exposed at times overnight.

Recorn recently found pressures of around 1001mb, so it still continues to gradually strengthen and probably has enough time to become a category 1 hurricane before landfall, thus hurricane warnings are up for the area. Impacts will likely be similar to Nate from last year. Small storms like Gordon, are susceptible to rapid intensity changes (both up and down), the upper level low weakening the southwest quadrant is moving away from Gordon this morning, so it is still worth watching. Those in the warning areas should prepare for a category 2 hurricane, and hope for less, but listen to local media and officials for your immediate area.

11AM EDT Update 3 September 2018

Hurricane Watches are now up along the northern Gulf coast for Gordon, from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border.

Gordon has continued to organize this morning ahead of schedule, but remains a Tropical Storm at the moment, with some strong wind reports from the Keys this morning. Recon is entering the system now to check it out.

Original Update
Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the Florida Keys and portions of S. Florida also in the North Gulf from AL/FL to Morgan City, LA as Tropical Storm Gordon forms near the Florida Keys this morning.

A 45MPH Tropcial Storm was what it was forecast to be in 36 hours from now at the 5AM Advisory. It's ahead of schedule.

The NHC upgraded based on some surface observations and radar, they will probably hold off any big forecast changes until the recon aircraft gets out to investigate it later today.

Gordon Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Gordon - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Gordon


stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float7latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Gordon (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Gordon (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Gordon

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Gordon
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Gordon -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Florence Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Florence - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Florence


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Florence (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Florence (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Florence

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Florence
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Florence -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

92L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 92L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 92L


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 92L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 92L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 92L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 92L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 92L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Mississippi/Alabama Gulf Coast Media/Links

WLOX TV 13 (ABC) Biloxi

WXXV TV 25 (Fox)Biloxi

WKRG TV 5 (CBS) Mobile

WPMI TV 15 (NBC) Mobile

WALA TV 10 (Fox) Mobile

WEAR TV 3 (ABC) Pensacola, FL

Newspapers

Mobile Register (Al.com) paper

Biloxi Sun Herald paper

Gulf Live

Radio (some)

News Talk 104.9 Biloxi, MS (Radio)

News talk 106.5 Mobile, AL (Radio)

Power Outage

Mississippi Power Outage Map

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East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida
North Gulf Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

New Orleans, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Lake Charles, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - New Orleans, LA - Lake Charles, LA - Houston/Galveston, TX

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September Begins Looking Unlike August

Posted: 04:49 AM 01 September 2018 | 3 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 07:21 AM 03-Sep EDT

8:30 PM EDT 1 September 2018 Update


Original Entry
After an especially subdued August in the Atlantic, which can occur with the month of September still ending up very active (See 1961 2002 and 2003), we start the new month with conditions for development much different than last, with considerably warmer SSTs in the Tropical Atlantic, and far less inhibiting Saharan dust over the entire North Atlantic. In addition, African Easterly Waves appear to be lining up.

So it goes without saying that because we got a break in August is by no means reason to let ones guard down as we now enter the very climatological peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. And as climatology would have it, we are now watching one tropical storm in the far eastern Atlantic (Florence) and a tropical wave set to enter what could be a fairly favorable state in the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Interesting model outputs on both of these, and with reason to keep watch. You can read and discuss more on the model runs of both in the Forecast Lounge:

Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Lounge and also Labor Day Week Gulf Low Forecast Lounge


Gordon Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Gordon - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Gordon


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Gordon (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Gordon (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Gordon

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Gordon
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Gordon -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Florence Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Florence - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Florence


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Florence (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Florence (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Florence

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Florence
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Florence -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida
North Gulf Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

New Orleans, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Lake Charles, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - New Orleans, LA - Lake Charles, LA - Houston/Galveston, TX

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Heading Toward September

Posted: 07:31 AM 28 August 2018 | | Add Comment

2 PM EDT 30 August 2018 Update
Invest 90L in the far eastern Atlantic is now SIX and Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the southern Cabo Verde Islands. This is a vigorous system and interests in the islands should consider making hurricane preparations in the event the system begins really ramping up prior to exiting the area, as this is possible.

Elsewhere, a pair of waves southeast of Florida, one in the central Caribbean and another approaching the Antilles, are being monitored for potential development in the Gulf of Mexico next week.
-Ciel

8 AM EDT 29 August 2018 Update

There is a 50% Chance for development of a wave coming off Africa, however this particular system is very likely to recurve out to sea well before the Caribbean. For this mornings 8AM Tropical Weather Outlook.



Another area in around the Leeward islands in the extreme Northeastern Caribbean is being watched for potential development late this weekend into next week, but currently not on the official outlook. That one may at least bring some rain to Florida early next week.



The middle arrow area is the one to pay attention to closely into the weekend and next week for the Gulf and Florida, even though it does not look like much now.

We'll be watching and updating as things start to change in the Atlantic. See the forecast lounge for more discussions on models that are helping to signal what may happen.

Potential Six Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Six - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Six


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Six (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Six (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Six

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Six
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Six -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)



Facebook Update Posted
09:21 am 17-Sep-2018 EDT

Mark Sudduth's Video Update for Sept 17 (Flooding in the Carolinas) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8AhJP4W984

Facebook Update Posted
06:52 pm 16-Sep-2018 EDT

Not to diminish the disaster underway with Florence, but we also might not be done with Isaac. Interests in Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, Yucatan and the Lower Keys may want to monitor this system closely with us in the Isaac Forecast Lounge
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Number=99448&gonew=1#UNREAD

Facebook Update Posted
08:58 am 14-Sep-2018 EDT

Florence Made Landfall as a Category 1 hurricane on Wrightsville Beach at 7:15AM, it's now moving to the southwest, currently over Carolina Beach.

Facebook Update Posted
04:53 am 14-Sep-2018 EDT

Radar Image this morning.

30.4N 27.9W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1010mb
Moving:
Ssw at 8 mph
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CFHC 2018
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