CFHC Talkback For News Story #100:
Newest Talkback: 06:11 AM 09-12 EDT

Floyd is Days Away
07:05 PM EDT - 11 September 1999

Sometimes people forget that even when talking about storms that something is days away. Floyd itself is (on current thinking) not going to affect the US until Mid Week (Tue-Wed). This gives the forecast lots of time to change, and I think--right now--that it will not directly landfall in Florida.

I'm resting heavily on climatology here in my thinking, with only one model suggesting landfall in Florida (AVN/MRF) I can't really go with that solution now. However, as the new week begins we will have time to track and watch the storm. The NHC official forecast suggest it will come close to Florida--closer than Dennis. This does NOT mean Florida is all clear, quite the contrary. Since there are always exceptions to climatology (Andrew (1992)/ 1935 Labor Day Keys Storm). Everyone along the southeast US coast and Bahamas will need to keep tabs on the storm for a while, and watch the model trends.

The key here will be if these models trend to the west, Florida landfall is more likely, otherwise it could be elsewhere. But since its mid-week we have the weekend to enjoy and ponder where it may go. Floyd is bigger (in both windspeed and size) than Dennis and has more potential to cause havoc. If you disagree or have your own thoughts or questions feel free to comment.

Since some have been comparing Floyd to Andrew (as far as track--note that I don't agree), here is an old satellite loop animation of Andrew.

TD#9 may become Gert later tonight or tomorrow, and the system in the Central Atlantic may form into something, but it will take time if it does at all.

The server debugging session never happened today, but we did alter the code of the site a bit to lessen the chance of an overload-related blackout.

For more information on Hurricane Floyd see the Current Storm Spotlight for Hurricane Floyd.
For more information on TD#9 see the Current Storm Spotlight for TD#9.
NRL Monterey Tracking Site (Navy) -- Very nice forecast track graphics for Floyd.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFDL Model & Plot for Floyd and for TD#9
Multiple Model Forecast Composite from Michael Bryson

Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #4 (of 25 total)
Pressure rising (#1)
Posted by: rob Location: stuart
Posted On 07:38PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (QYYNRRWNQWSNRPV*)


Floyds pressure has slowly been rising during the day from 962 to 966 and just now 967 in the lates recon report if this continues i wouldent be suprised if floyed winds drop to 105 at the 11:00 advisory,but floyd would probaly recover later tonight or early tomorrow morning.
GFDL (#2)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 07:44PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTPNQWT*)

Good evening everyone. Well, I just thought that I would post a brief comment regarding the GFDL's westward shift in the forecast track. The GFDL's latest run brings Floyd to a point about 100 to 150 miles east of West Palm Beach in 72 hours while moving northwest. This position and track is considerably farther west than the previous forecast track.

I'll post later this evening with some thoughts.

God Bless You,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
Forward speed (#3)
Posted by: Steve Hirschberger Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 07:56PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNQXR*)

Seems like the race is on. Will Floyd beat the trough to the coast or not? Will the Ridge outmuscle the trough, or will Floyd stall or slow forward movement as the trough approaches like Dennis did? I figure that if Floyd is going to make landfall his forward progress must not be impeded. Any significant slowing of Floyd will allow the trough to move in and curve him out to sea. The trough in the west is beginning to look impressive, but probably 3-4 days away. The last few loops of Floyd show a slight wobble to the SW. Maybe the high to the SW is slowing him down. Anyhow the timing, as stated before by many, is critical to those along the Florida coast. I kind of agree with the UKMET in that once the trough approaches the storm will be taken out to the east, but will it be in Okeechobee or Orlando when it does? I suspect the UKMET will have a compromise solution on the next run, a bit further to the west but curving it NNE in short order. In short, and unfortunately if the trough doesn't do its thing, I'm thinking that floyd will make landfall in florida or NOWHERE at all, since it may be pushed rapidly to the N then NE. Any other thoughts out there? Does anyone have forecasts on when the trough is going to approach the FL panhandle?
GFDL Update (#4)
Posted by: STeve Hirschberger Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 08:06PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNRPR*)

Ron thanks for the update on the latest GFDL run. I expected it to be adjusted to the right. Yes its early, but I'm starting to get a queasy feeling about this. 100-150 miles of W. palm moving NW sounds like ERIN, which just about came over my house in S. Brevard Co. 1995. She wasn't a Cat 3 or 4 though. Tuesday at that position implies a steady forward speed also. I'll have to figure out the milage on that.
Crossing into Gulf (#5)
Posted by: John McLain Location: Seminole, FL
Posted On 09:13PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (QWQNRQUNQWUNRRR*)

Are ANY models showing a So. Fla transit ala Andrew and the curving North with the trough? A full throttle turn NE into Tampa Bay is not a pleasant thought. I suppose the turn is inevitable - as Steve wrote 'the storm will be taken out to the east, but will it be in Okeechobee or Orlando when it does?' I'd add or will it be Venice?
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