CFHC Talkback For News Story #102:
Newest Talkback: 02:20 PM 09-12 EDT

Major Hurricane Floyd Continues to Strengthen... Tropical Storm Gert Forms in East Atlantic
10:57 AM EDT - 12 September 1999

NEW Intensity Update 4:30PM: Pressure has dropped to 940mb. Expect the windspeed to go up. More soon.

Intensity Update 3:00PM: Aircraft Recon have determined the central pressure in Floyd to be 944mb, which is a drop of 11mb since this morning. This is fairly significant and means that we may be seeing a category 4 hurricane tonight. Prepare to Prepare.

Mini Update 12:30PM: It looks like watches will be issued for parts of Florida Tomorrow. Timeframe for Floyd approach is late Tuesday Early Wednesday morning currently. The Current NHC Forecast track does not make landfall on Florida, yet. But it does place it close enough to Cape Canaveral for the effect of 100+ Mph winds to be felt along the coastline. Please keep this in mind as you prepare to prepare. If you notice on the satellite pictures, Floyd is elongated in the east/west direction. This is not a good sign for Florida. Keep watch.

Tropical Storm Gert has now formed in the East Atlantic and will track West over the next several days. There is a bit of time to watch this one as the main concern is somewhat closer.

Floyd is now up to 120MPH sustained windspeed around the eye, and looks good on satellite photos. It's still moving west at the moment, which raises the question... Will it effect Florida?

The discussion from earlier today hasn't changed, yet. But I must emphasize (again) that we should be prepared to get prepared if Watches/Warnings are issued for Florida. It is important to note that the new 72hour forecast position from the NHC places the center of Floyd less than 50 miles offshore from Cape Canaveral. It's going to be too close again.

Floyd is larger than Dennis. Remember this.

As always, feel free to comment, agree, disagree, ask questions, or post your own interpretation.

For East Central Florida residents and guests looking for more information such as Evacuation Routes and Planning tips see the following pages: [Brevard] [Volusia] [Flagler] [Indian River] [Inland] [News Media]
These have links to the county sites which gives evacuation information and shelter locations.

Also our links page has links to other areas in Florida -- look for the Emergency Management County pages.

For more information on Hurricane Floyd see the Current Storm Spotlight for Hurricane Floyd.
For more information on Gert see the Current Storm Spotlight for Gert.
NRL Monterey Tracking Site (Navy) -- Very nice forecast track graphics for Floyd.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFDL Model & Plot for Floyd and for Gert
Multiple Model Forecast Composite from Michael Bryson

Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: Floyd Centered imagery.

[N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [mac]

Show All Comments
Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #14 (of 14 total)
Floyd (#1)
Posted by: Mark Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 11:25AM 12-Sep-1999 with id (QRNWWNQUPNQUP*)

Floyd is strengthening and now has winds of 120mph. Floyd continues to move westward and additional Watches and Warnings may be issued this afternoon for the northern Bahamas and for Florida on Monday. Nothing has changed with floyd's path thru 36 hours the big question is what happens after 36 hours. Will it continue westward or turn back to w-nw. Right now I am leaning towards w-nw and Floyd could come very close to Ft Pierce Florida. Stay tuned.
Still Puzzeled (#2)
Posted by: Robin Location: Melrose,FL
Posted On 11:48AM 12-Sep-1999 with id (RPYNRQRNQSRNSS*)

I am reposting this with some modifications as it was only up for a couple of hours. I would appreciate your responses.
Having just read Gary Grey's discussion of the various models written
late last night, and having looked at the latest TPC forecast map I note
an interesting divergence. Practically all of the models Gary discussed (including the tropical models such as LBAR and BAM)
predict that Floyd will not make landfall in Florida and none predict deep
penetration inland. The TPC and the NWS forecasts , on the other hand,
seem to indicate Floyd plowing obliquely into the coast somewhere between the Cape and
Daytona and the NWS is forecasting significant wave build-up in the Gulf
by Wed/Thurs which obviously indicates a more westward track (not
that Floyd is expected to enter the Gulf, but that he will be close enough
to stir things up significantly (unless it is merely a high gradient between
Floyd and high pressure off to the NW). Am I missing something? Usually
the TPC's forecast track represents an ensemble of the more reliable or
appropriate models, no? They seem to be giving more weight to the tropical models at this point with their more westerly track.
Dr. Gray's Next Update (#3)
Posted by: Cathy Location: Bartow, FL
Posted On 12:27PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNRS*)

I emailed Dr. Gray and he said his next update will be between 8 - 10pm this evening.
Floyd (#4)
Posted by: Ken Location: Jacksonville, Fl
Posted On 12:55PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNRR*)

Can anyone render an assessment on what impact Floyd would have on Jacksonville given the current forecast by the TPC.
TIME TO GET READY (#5)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 02:02PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNSS*)

Good afternoon i have been up all night and will not get any sleep im sure for some time so please hang in there with me as im running on MAXWELL HOUSE, but here is what i got to tell you , Given the trough that will try to pull FLOYD north even if i dont think it will in time , Why because this system will be to strong for this trough, but lets say it will , the system will be to close to florida so that Hurricane force winds will be here,You do not have to be in the eye to get hit and im shocked that more postings are not saying that, if most who read this site think it will turn north than they may think it will not effect them, listen this will have a far reach so that at it's pass to the florida state even tropical storm force winds will almost if not reach the west coast of florida.PLEASE GET READY, i can only tell you this because i really feel thin will impact the florida coast in a big way, the system only has to wobble left to landfall here, if it is that close and starting to turn north.,also big systems dont turn on a dime they swing in a wider loop than do smaller systems, given all that im saying i hope you keep this post very close to your hart and please dont focus on the center as the Hurricane reaches out in a wider swath, ill post again but i hope you are not here to read it if you have not gotton the things you need, than go get them, publics is getting crowded, and please at the upper most on your list, TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE FIRST, as this is what i got into this business for to help save lifes not lose them, GOD BLESS YOU ALL AND MAY WE BE SAFE IF AND WHEN HARM COMES OUR WAY,again thank you Mike C. for this great web site and i know you are also working hard to keep up for everyone and i really thank you for that, Mike AndersoN Florida WX.
Thank you Mike (#6)
Posted by: Mary
Posted On 02:18PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNQTY*)

Thank you for trying to help us all. I for one have already taken your advice because I will be manning a refugee designated civil defense shelter if the warnings for Polk County are issued. We have more mobile home residents than we have houses. I will not have another day to get out and prepare my own family. I just stopped by to check the latest reports in hopes that the Maritans had landed and taken a large sample of the hurricane with them. Obiviously they havent.
Visualization (#7)
Posted by: Mike Cornelius [CFHC] (http://flhurricane.com) Location: New Smyrna Beach, FL
Posted On 02:28PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (VSNRRNPNUS*)

I hate posting images on the main page during heavy use (it slows it down even more) so to illustrate the point I was trying to make I'm posting the image here.

This image is from the NRL Monterry Site and illustrates what I and Mike Anderson have been trying to point out.

The latest run of the NOGAPS recurves the storm before it hits Florida, which is somewhat good news. However BAMM, GFDL, MRF, AVN still trend it toward Florida.



- Mike C.
floyd,,, full update at 9pm sun (#8)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 03:05PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (VSNRSNQXTNQUY*)

pressure is down to 944..... he should really
continue to increase,speed of his west direction
is up to 14-15mph,,,,,if this stays 15mph or more
for any duration,,the chances for a miss will
not happen,,and could even cross to the north
of tampa,to the Gulf,,,,,my full update will
be tonight around 9-10pm with the final direction
and impact of this soon cat4-5 storm.
scottsvb 3pm
Floyd (#9)
Posted by: mARK Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 03:45PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (QRNWWNQUQNQVW*)

Okay lets get realistic here. If Floyd reaches CAT#4 status we could be looking at a HUGO or Andrew type storm. I went thru Andrew in Homestead and I don't care how much anyone believes there ready:: YOUR NOT READY FOR THIS ::
The Bahamas are looking at a death storm approaching there area. I'm sorry if I'm being so black about this but the damage and loss of life is so real but never expected until it happens. We'll everyone its here!!!! BE PREPARED!!! now is the time... Floyd continues to move west or just north of west and the threat to the Bahamas and Florida is for real. Please get ready and if you are in an area that you may have to leave make arrangments now even if Floyd misses us its better safe than sorry. A CAT#4 storm hitting our area you can expect winds of 130-150mph, rainfall of 15" or more. Everyone from the Bahamas and Key West to Jacksonville, from Marco Island to Tampa, get ready now just in case the worst does happen!!!!!!!
SAVANNAH (#10)
Posted by: Chris Sinclair Location: WZAT RADIO SAVANNAH GA
Posted On 04:15PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNTV*)

In the given models.... What are the chances of the storm moving up the Florida coast and making landfall into the savannah area.. This is what happened back in 1979 with Hurricane David. Savannah is about due North of the given path.
Please E-mail me with your comments at Beech232@aol.com

Thanks
Chris Sinclair WZAT Z-102 Radio Savannah, GA.
PLEASE ANWSER BACK PLEASE! (#11)
Posted by: ROB
Posted On 04:25PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (QYYNRRWNRPNQVV*)

IF floydes forward movement increases could this mean that the track will be farther south say westpalm stuart area or will it just make it to the cape a lot quicker

PLease Answer back anyone

OH $#^! (#12)
Posted by: ROB
Posted On 04:29PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (QYYNRRWNRPNQVV*)


THE pressure droped 4 millibars in one hour
Floyd is going through what i think is a rappid
deepening like andrew did before he hit florida
Answer to Rob (#13)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 05:08PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNQTY*)

This is in no way to sound like an expert however, I think that if the forward speed at due west picks up with no jogs to north or south we could see Floyd slip into the KEys and then into the Gulf. It is a real horse race in terms of where how fast.
Savannah (#14)
Posted by: Mike Cornelius [CFHC] (http://flhurricane.com) Location: New Smyrna Beach, FL
Posted On 05:20PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (VSNRRNPNUS*)

Chris, I'd advise keeping tabs on it. Some models suggest that it will move up toward that area and actually scrape the coast all the way up to New England. The more immediate threat seems, unfortunately, to be for the Bahamas and then our area in Central Florida. Tomorrow will be the decision day for us.

-- Mike C.
Show All Comments

Return to Central Florida Hurricane Center Main Page