CFHC Talkback For News Story #103:
Newest Talkback: 11:55 PM 09-19 EDT

Lots of Action out there
08:06 PM EDT - 18 September 2000

Gordon still causing a lot of rain in the southeast. But he is gone!

More action brewing in the tropics.  Remnants of TD #12 working it way in south of Cuba is looking like it may strengthen some.  Two other tropical waves east of the Caribbean we need to keep an eye on.  

Sorry for not being here it was not my choice to go to Texas it was my Job.  Still here working of a slow laptop.  And trying to keep up with the tropics while I'm in a school.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for TD#11. From Michael Bryson.

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [jc]

Show All Comments | Show Next 21 Comments | Show Previous 35 Comments
Displaying Talkbacks #18 - #38 (of 59 total)
More T#s (#18)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 11:24AM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNRUR*)


DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM

19/1145Z 16.7N 78.9W T2.0/2.0 TD12



gom (#19)
Posted by: mark Location: new orleans
Posted On 11:27AM 19-Sep-2000 with id (SXNSQNQTYNWS*)

Had anyone forecasted that big blob i the BOC? It seems that it just exploded very rapidly. Any models showing the eventual movement of this system?
Question (#20)
Posted by: David
Posted On 11:45AM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)

I will be in New Orleans tomorrow for a week, any chance of that disturbance in the GOM making it my way??
TD 12 (#21)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 11:46AM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNQWY*)


DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE (AL1200) ON 20000919 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...

000919 1200 000920 0000 000920 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 18.9N 78.3W 19.6N 80.8W 20.4N 83.0W

BAMM 18.9N 78.3W 19.6N 80.5W 20.4N 82.3W

A90E 18.9N 78.3W 19.8N 82.0W 20.9N 85.0W

LBAR 18.9N 78.3W 20.2N 81.5W 21.7N 84.3W

SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 48KTS



...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...

000921 0000 000921 1200 000922 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 21.2N 84.8W 21.8N 86.2W 23.1N 89.0W

BAMM 21.4N 83.6W 22.0N 84.6W 23.1N 86.1W

A90E 22.3N 87.4W 23.3N 89.1W 26.1N 91.0W

LBAR 23.5N 86.5W 25.7N 87.6W 30.1N 86.1W

SHIP 57KTS 67KTS 84KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LAT0 = 18.9N LON0 = 78.3W DIR0 = 285DEG SPD0 = 19KT

LATM12 = 17.6N LONM12 = 74.4W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 19KT

LATM24 = 17.2N LONM24 = 70.6W

WND0 = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = -9NM RD34SE = -9NM RD34SW = -9NM RD34NW = -9NM



NNNN




Test runs on 91L BOC (#22)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 11:49AM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNQWY*)


.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION (AL9100) ON 20000919 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...

000919 1200 000920 0000 000920 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 21.0N 93.5W 22.5N 93.9W 24.0N 93.9W

BAMM 21.0N 93.5W 22.8N 94.2W 24.4N 94.5W

A90E 21.0N 93.5W 21.2N 93.5W 22.2N 93.6W

LBAR 21.0N 93.5W 21.8N 93.9W 23.3N 94.4W

SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS



...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...

000921 0000 000921 1200 000922 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 25.6N 93.6W 26.8N 92.7W 29.8N 89.2W

BAMM 26.0N 94.0W 26.7N 93.3W 28.0N 91.3W

A90E 23.4N 93.9W 24.5N 94.0W 27.2N 93.5W

LBAR 25.3N 94.6W 27.3N 94.0W 31.9N 90.0W

SHIP 47KTS 56KTS 67KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LAT0 = 21.0N LON0 = 93.5W DIR0 = 0DEG SPD0 = 0KT

LATM12 = 21.0N LONM12 = 93.5W DIRM12 = 0DEG SPDM12 = 0KT

LATM24 = 21.0N LONM24 = 93.5W

WND0 = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = -9NM RD34SE = -9NM RD34SW = -9NM RD34NW = -9NM



.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....


Oh Boy....This Is Crazy!!! (#23)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 12:35PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYUNRPQ*)

Wow...the gulf and caribbean are really cranking up...who said Mother Nature was sleeping? Maybe she hibernated to long up north, now she's cranky and going to make up for it...I shudder at the thought...no matter where they head.
test runs (#24)
Posted by: alan Location: orlando
Posted On 12:56PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

These test models have the storms coming to roughly the same point at the same time from opposite directions. How is this possible? Won't the steering currents guide both storms in the same direction, or will do these tests show what will happen if each is the one that survives.
Perhaps they have some alliance and voted Gordon off the earth this week.
COLLISION (#25)
Posted by: NICK Location: ORLANDO ,FL
Posted On 01:02PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYTNRPW*)

IF THESE TWO STORMS COME THAT CLOSE TO EACH OTHER WHAT WOULD POSSIBLY HAPPEN/ THOUGHTS ANYONE
I Have No Clue (#26)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 01:13PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYUNQYY*)

...but, if they came together, I believe the bigger one would swallow the little one, and whoever gets it, loses. What are the steering currents, anyway?
TD#12,,,TD#13 (#27)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 01:16PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSRNQVU*)

Hello All,
Well it looks like we are in for a rough 3-5 days. I believe the most important is the tropical wave in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. This area has gotten much better organized over the last 12 hours and it looks like we may have a Tropical Depression even a Tropical Storm this afternoon. The rapid development of this system is very important due to its position and is expected to move northward and head towards the upper Texas coast into Louisiana in about 48 hours. John Hope just reported that a plane will be in there around 2pm to check things out and he expects the NHC to upgrade the system so pay close attention.
Now the area just south of central Cuba is showing a circulation center and a plane should be in there around 1pm. This area should develope and the big concern is it looks like this system could take a simular track as Gordon did just a few days ago. This would create another heavy rain maker for Florida in just a short period of time along with a little more time to develope than Gordon had so we may have a stronger system down the road. Though nothing has been upgraded at this time I feel over the next 4 hours we may see alot of information to deal with. People in the west central Gulf and the eastern Gulf need to monitor reports this afternoon and thru the week very closely.

Hurricane Gordon totals here in Cape Coral were:
Lowest Pressure: 29.80" Highest Wind Gust: 61 mph
Total Rainfall: 7.85". I really don't need another rain maker this soon. I had alot of street flooding ranging from a few inches up to almost 15" deep. We are not ready for another one so soon.
Two Storms (#28)
Posted by: Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 01:17PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNRY*)

I have read that a few storms have came close to each other in the past. One of the storms rotated around the other one. John Hope from the weather channel seems to think that the storm in the gom could already be a TD or even a TS, and will head north, while the other storm would take the same path as Gordon and be a treat to Florida.
Active!! (#29)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 01:20PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSSNQVU*)

Well, things really are hotting up!! Looks like anyone in the Gulf, and the Northwestern Caribbean really needs to monitor the two systems closely! Latest visible imagery shows the area in the GOM is well organised, with good convection, and a possible centre developing.
The remnants of TD#12, continue to look good too, with evidence of circulation and banding.It looks like there may be a possible centre located just east-north-east of the Caymans. The next few hours will tell on both systems, as will the recon flights, but i ewould not be surprised if both systems are classified soon!
Both systems are the subject of Tropical Cyclone Formation Alerts on my site.
New T#s 12:30 PM EDT (#30)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 01:21PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNQPV*)


TPPZ1 KGWC 191706

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SW OF MEXICO

B. 19/1630Z (119)

C. 16.1N/8

D. 103.2W/6

E. FIVE/GOES10

F. T1.5/1.5/INIT OBS -19/1630Z-

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI



70/ PBO ANMTN. SYSTEM GRADUALLY ORGANIZING, WITH SEVERAL CURVED

BANDS TO THE NW AND SE OF THE LLCC. OUTFLOW LOOKS GOOD, ESPECIALLY

IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON THE LOG10 SPIRAL. FINAL T

IS BASED ON DT. PT SUPPORTS.


New T#s 12:30 PM EDT (#31)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 01:27PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNQPV*)


TPPZ1 KGWC 191706

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SW OF MEXICO

B. 19/1630Z (119)

C. 16.1N/8

D. 103.2W/6

E. FIVE/GOES10

F. T1.5/1.5/INIT OBS -19/1630Z-

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI



70/ PBO ANMTN. SYSTEM GRADUALLY ORGANIZING, WITH SEVERAL CURVED

BANDS TO THE NW AND SE OF THE LLCC. OUTFLOW LOOKS GOOD, ESPECIALLY

IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON THE LOG10 SPIRAL. FINAL T

IS BASED ON DT. PT SUPPORTS.


Disreguard post above (#32)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 01:37PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNQPV*)

Not for us
Tropical Cyclone Alert (#1) (#33)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:05PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQXS*)

This was posted this morning by the Navy and is relative to the system now west of Jamaica:

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT KNGU 191200
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.0N0 76.0W3 TO 23.2N7 86.2W6 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 191045Z0 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N0 76.0W3. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
LATEST IR SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE A DIFFUSE CENTER NEAR 19.0N 76.0W MOVING 275 DEGREES AT 12 TO 15 KNOTS. SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE TOPOGRAPHICAL INFLUENCE OF HAITI. UPPER LEVELS INDICATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE CENTER. POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AND SST'S
IN THE LOW TO MID 80'S.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 201200Z5.//

As you can see, by the early morning time it was posted, this system has improved gradually and will probably be named a TD @ 5..

td12(again) and other stuff (#34)
Posted by: troy
Posted On 02:08PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQQNTWNRPY*)

the 0z gfdl runs show waht was td12 and will again be td12 taling a very similar track to gordon. what is wierd is that run dosnt have the low in the sw gulf on any portion of the mapped run.

those in the know..is this b/c it is a run for that depression in that they would just map that feature? or did it develop that fast unexpectedly?

i would think the later b/c the other maps do show other features...

also what effect will both these storms have on each other in a developmental phase?

I to have see mature storms rotate around the others circualtion, but these are forming storms. is there enough real estate down there for both??




two storms (#35)
Posted by: Doug Spangler Location: sarasota
Posted On 02:13PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQTTNQNTQ*)

The two systems are very close together...if the boc system develops rapidly the outflow could inhibit the td12 progress and development, watch how the n-nw outflow carries over the system or not as the case may be...td12 is moving quite fast and it will not pull together too fast...can't wait for the aircraft reports...EDS.
Disreguard post above (#36)
Posted by: Gary (http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 02:21PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNQPV*)

Not for us
Water Vapor Loop (#37)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:34PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQXS*)

If you look at the WV Loops, you can see a huge area of dry air coming down into the general area where the GOM system seems to be headed. What, if any, effect would this have on the system? Would it push it more towards the NE where the moisture is? Would it kill it? Would it converge it with the other one? Just all questions that I am not knowledgeable to deal with...btw, I have been trying to pull up the other loops since around noon, they are all down arrgghh...Colleen
Latest Sat Images (#38)
Posted by: Gerry Location: Venice Fl
Posted On 02:46PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRVNRQTNQUY*)

The sat images just released show the system in the BOC somewhat difused and less organized than earlier images. Caribean system has much better organization since leaving the topographical influence of Hati and Jamica. This looks to me as if it has formed a defined center of circulation and has the characteristics of a TS not a TD. Comments
I Agree Gerry (#39)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:54PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQXS*)

It definitely looks as though it has an LLCC, but it will all depend on who's flying the recon...Mr. Magoo or a pilot. J/K!!! We will find out soon, I am sure...but my bet (because of the losses I have taken this season) would be to state the obvious, GOM will be Helene, and Caribbean thing will be Isaac....just following past logic!!!!
Show All Comments | Show Next 21 Comments | Show Previous 35 Comments

Return to Central Florida Hurricane Center Main Page